Evil_g wrote: Getting waaaay ahead of myself...but...

Edinburgh play the Scarlets twice in the next three rounds. If Edinburgh were to win both games (not unthinkable) it might be time to start worrying about four Irish and two Scottish teams finishing in the top six.

If that were to happen the sixth place team would have to make way for the top Welsh team.

Yep, or the other way round with no Scottish team.
Really only a top 5 finish guarantees qualification.
6th will most likely do, but might not.

Getting waaaay ahead of myself...but...

Edinburgh play the Scarlets twice in the next three rounds. If Edinburgh were to win both games (not unthinkable) it might be time to start worrying about four Irish and two Scottish teams finishing in the top six.

If that were to happen the sixth place team would have to make way for the top Welsh team.

Just had a look back at the previous years 6th place finish totals, going backwards from last year they were 57, 55, 54, 56 and 60 points. That is well within our grasp.

The results over the weekend have been favourable but the only real thing that mattered to me this weekend was we did all that was within our power. If we keep doing that during the 6 nations we won't need to be doing many calculations or going through as many permutations in a couple of months. Its a competitive league and the 6 nations creates another dynamic. Cardiff are a side who have improved on last season but they shouldn't come into the equation for us unless we fail to deliver our side of the bargain.

5 more wins (or equivalent) will get us to 60 which would you'd imagine would be more than enough for Top 6. 56/58 could well be enough which is only 4 wins and a couple of bonus points (or equivalent) away. Next 5 games we want to get as close as we can to or meet these targets. We should be looking to make sure that for the last 4 games we have Top 6 wrapped up or close to wrapped up. Then maybe we can see if Top 4 is a possibility.

The table will stretch out over the next two weeks. If we win our 2 games ( 10 points would be nice but I'd be more than happy with 8 ) we'll be sitting pretty as many of the top 9 play each other:

Ulster Rugby v Glasgow Warriors
Scarlets v Edinburgh Rugby
Munster Rugby v Ospreys

Ospreys v Edinburgh Rugby
Cardiff Blues v Leinster Rugby
Glasgow Warriors v Munster Rugby
Ulster Rugby v Scarlets

Cardiff is a more of a worry now.. Such a favorable schedule. At least they have guys called up, hope they'll fall twice or thrice as needed..

Fourdogs wrote: The missing games are distorting the Pro 12 table at the moment but assuming that Leinster, Munster and Ulster were to win their missing games. There would only be 6 points (37 - 43) sepeating the top 6 teams with an increasing gap appearing to the chasers.

I'd expect both Munster and Leinster to lose their games in hand (away to Cardiff and Glasgow respectively), Ulster to go top when they hammer Dragons next weekend, and Glasgow to also win their second game in hand (Zebre).

So the table should be looking something like this if all the postponed games had gone ahead and gone to form:

Ulster 42
Scarlets 40
Connacht 40
Leinster 39
Glasgow 38
Edinburgh 37
Munster 36
Cardiff 31
Ospreys 30

Ospreys are in big trouble, we may be in a position to deliver the coup de grace in 4 weeks time.

The missing games are distorting the Pro 12 table at the moment but assuming that Leinster, Munster and Ulster were to win their missing games. There would only be 6 points (37 - 43) sepeating the top 6 teams with an increasing gap appearing to the chasers.

pinky wrote: I was hoping for zero for Ospreys, but once it became clear they were going to get one, it's probably just as well for them to deprive Glasgow of the two.
I'm pretty confident Glasgow will overhaul Edinburgh eventually, thus making their position irrelevant from a qualification point of view.

I've always thought thé same. After this afternoon i think they can both finish with 56 and oSpreys even below. Good for us

I was hoping for zero for Ospreys, but once it became clear they were going to get one, it's probably just as well for them to deprive Glasgow of the two.
I'm pretty confident Glasgow will overhaul Edinburgh eventually, thus making their position irrelevant from a qualification point of view.

Decadence wrote: Ospreys 20 - 20 Glasgow

A great result for us, keeps both teams firmly in the bottom half of the table. Glasgow have 2 games in hand but they'll probably struggle during the international window.

Yeah i was just about to say the same, 5 points to us, only two for both our rivals. I barely dared imagining such a perfect scenario before the weekend

Ospreys missed a few kicks and a relatively easy drop goal attempt in last couple of minutes. Overall, great weekend of results for us. Glasgow looked the much better side in today's match so I'm glad they didn't hold on to their 7 point lead.

Ospreys 20 - 20 Glasgow

A great result for us, keeps both teams firmly in the bottom half of the table. Glasgow have 2 games in hand but they'll probably struggle during the international window.

Yep:
www.connachtclan.com/clan-forum/5-flight...-at-7-30pm-confirmed
I would have though BBCW or S4C would have picked it up alright.
Maybe it's so we can stop off in Newport on the way to Paris?

EDIT: Newport County v Carlisle United on on Saturday lunchtime - Pro12 were late announcing the fixture so maybe they were already booked.

I was just looking at my calendar, and noticed we've got Dragons away on a Thursday night (Feb 11th). What's the story there? Doesn't look like it's going to be televised which is a shame - I like having a bit of rugby to watch on a Thursday night (normally challenge cup games).

3 players from Dragons in the Welsh squad, 11 from Ospreys. Rodney Parade will be a tricky game, 8-pointer against Spreys looks a bit better... 9 Embra players