13-13 at the Liberty. Lydiate in the bin. Edinburgh look the better team.
Kinda need an Ospreys win here, otherwise we need to win in Murrayfield to avoid having Edinburgh breathing down our necks during the interpros.
The silver lining to an Edinburgh win would be that we'd have the chance to bury Ospreys completely next weekend, but I reckon a win would put us comfortably clear of them regardless of the result tonight.
I'd take a draw at this stage.

Dont know if this is of any interest to anyone, but looking at our remaining fixtures, I've noticed the following

Zebre Away - Zebre have won 3 of their 6 home games this season - Only once conceded more than 25 points at home this season
Ospreys Home - Ospreys have won 4 of their 7 away games this season - Conceded an average of 23.7 points away from home per game
Edinburgh Away - Edinburgh have won 6 of their 7 home games this season - Haven't conceded more than 16 points in a game at home this season
Leinster Home - Leinster have won 3 and Lost 3 of their away games this season. Conceded an average of 13.3 points per away game, and scored an average of 18.1
Ulster Away - Ulster have won 6 of their 7 home games this season. Ulster have scored 21.5 points per game at home, but they did score 48 in one of those games. The most that they've conceded is 17, and on average concede 10
Munster Home - Munster have won 4 of their 6 away games this season
Treviso Away - Treviso have won 1 home game all season (out of 7)
Glasgow Home - Glasgow have won 1 away game all season (Out of 6)

We want one Scottish side to nearly win every game against all other top sides - but finish 5th or 6th! As was pointed out elsewhere, a top six consisting of only Irish and Welsh sides means only 5 of them will qualify for the European Cup.

ConnachtCows wrote: Round 15 Fixtures:

Ospreys vs Edinburgh
Treviso vs Dragons
Glasgow vs Munster
Cardiff vs Leinster
Zebre vs Connacht
Ulster vs Scarlets

Trying to figure out what results would be best for us

Ospreys win without any bonus points, then both teams will be on 38points
Dragons beat Treviso
Glasgow beat Munster with no bonus points, then Munster will be on 37, and Glasgow on 34
Cardiff beat Leinster
We beat Zebre with the Bonus Point
Ulster beat Scarlets without any bonus points

Table would be:
Connacht 50 (Played 15)
Ulster 49 (Played 15)
Leinster 44 (Played 14)
Scarlets 44 (Played 15)
Edinburgh 38 (Played 15)
Ospreys 38 (Played 15)
Munster 37 (Played 14)
Glasgow 34 (Played 13)
Cardiff 32 (Played 14)
Dragons 27 (Played 15)
Zebre 18 (Played 14)
Treviso 11 (Played 15)

I'd expect Leinster to beat a poor enough Cardiff side. We have to keep taking our points and concentrating on our own results. We do our business it will be ok for top 6. Top 4 will require us to do our business and others helping us out.

pinky wrote: So are Connacht title contenders now or what?
Are we allowed to talk about that?
.

No, Dont start talking about as you'll but the curse on it. And for feck sake dont start a thread on the semi finals or booking a plane.

Hold it horse

Round 15 Fixtures:

Ospreys vs Edinburgh
Treviso vs Dragons
Glasgow vs Munster
Cardiff vs Leinster
Zebre vs Connacht
Ulster vs Scarlets

Trying to figure out what results would be best for us

Ospreys win without any bonus points, then both teams will be on 38points
Dragons beat Treviso
Glasgow beat Munster with no bonus points, then Munster will be on 37, and Glasgow on 34
Cardiff beat Leinster
We beat Zebre with the Bonus Point
Ulster beat Scarlets without any bonus points

Table would be:
Connacht 50 (Played 15)
Ulster 49 (Played 15)
Leinster 44 (Played 14)
Scarlets 44 (Played 15)
Edinburgh 38 (Played 15)
Ospreys 38 (Played 15)
Munster 37 (Played 14)
Glasgow 34 (Played 13)
Cardiff 32 (Played 14)
Dragons 27 (Played 15)
Zebre 18 (Played 14)
Treviso 11 (Played 15)

At the start of the season if you gave me top six I would have taken it (especially after last season's agony), so we are now in a very good position to get that, we have 45 points and I think another 13 should guarantee us top 6. Anything after that will be a bonus, we have to try and get the 13 in the next 3 matches as the rest of the teams will have their national players back after a few weeks and they don't have any participation in Europe so they will be concentrating everything on the league. We need the pressure off us when we go to Grenoble and maybe at the end of the season we will have our of Top 6 (maybe top 4), and some silverware also.

Fourdogs wrote:

Banm wrote: I don't know what to think about any of it...

If we get a playoff top four I'm already getting married that weekend....

If we get to a final I'm on honeymoon....

TORN!!!

Missing the wedding might cause a problem with the other half and both families but I'm sure with some carefull planning (ask Pinky for assistance) you can slip away from the honeymoon for 36 hours, quick flight back to Paris, train to Lyon and head back as soon as the game us over.

Ok,the Clan Agony Aunt blog is open.
Its like this...a wife and girlfriend are two totally different species...and ya need to lay down from day one who's wearing the trousers.... and it won't be you laddie...
Now thats sorted I suggest that you suggest a romantic weekend away;this is one to surpass all previous weekend shenanigans.... wine,gift card of Ryanair flight to say,umm....France... like Lyon for example....it's simply wonderful in May...do ya get my drift...good luck.

I was hoping Munster would win to push Ospreys further away from us. Until Rhys Webb came on I didn't see anything major to fear in the Ospreys for 2 weeks time. At 17-10 I expected Munster to secure a bonus point win.

You'd imagine Rhys Webb will be with Wales the weekend they play us if he gets some game time v Edinburgh next weekend (I hope). Ospreys have an experienced core even minus their Welsh contingent and Davies is a good prospect at 10. We always knew we needed to beat Ospreys at home. This result heightens the significance of that game.That'll be a tough game.

Munster have some very favourable games on the run in so you'd expect them to at a minimum still finish Top 6. Scarlets run in looks tough for a team who look to be struggling for form in the last couple of months. Cardiff's defeat yesterday is probably the end of their Top 6 ambitions but they have the ability to be king makers in the final weeks.

The permutations are endless but we just need to look after our own business as we have in the last two rounds.

When you need to score 4 tries to win a home game and are playing with a 10 and place kicker whose form has deserted nearly 12 mths ago now I can see how some can dispair.

Munster fans look to be preparing to wave the white flag over on Twitter. Strange to see

By the way, Paddy Power have us as third favorites to win the league, behind Leinster, and Ulster
This does not include the playoffs, just to finish top after 22 games

Ospreys scrape past Munster, they'll be annoyed to let that one get away. Good news for us (I think) but it makes getting a result against them in a few weeks very important.

All we need to do is finish ahead of one of Scarlets or Ospreys or one of Edinburgh or Glasgow to finish in the Top6. If we can finish in front of Munster - even better. Top6 is doable, Top4 might be a bridge too far. Ulster and Leinster are guaranteed Top4. We're in a dogfight for the rest for the final two places.

yeah, one opponent out, Ospreys to follow tomorrow

A win for Treviso for the first time since last February! Major setback for Cardiff's recent progress.

Banm wrote: I don't know what to think about any of it...

If we get a playoff top four I'm already getting married that weekend....

If we get to a final I'm on honeymoon....

TORN!!!

Missing the wedding might cause a problem with the other half and both families but I'm sure with some carefull planning (ask Pinky for assistance) you can slip away from the honeymoon for 36 hours, quick flight back to Paris, train to Lyon and head back as soon as the game us over.