mary hinge wrote: FFS Connacht Cows - what side of the bed did you get out of this morning. 1 win in the last 7 - 9 points only - oh ye of little faith.
The really crucial games are the next two. Ospreys and Edinburgh are our direct rivals for Heineken qualification. Beat Ospreys next weekend and they will find it virtually impossible to catch us. It's also looking extremely unlikely that both Scottish teams will catch us and pass us out, so anything out of the game in Edinburgh (provided we've beaten Ospreys) and we're home and hosed and can start thinking Top 4.
I think as follows:
Ospreys win - 4pts.
Edinburgh lbp - 1 pt.
Leinster lbp - 1 pt.
Munster win - 4 pts.
Ulster - win - 4 pts.
Treviso win/tbp - 5 pts.
Glasgow - nothing 0 pts.
Leaving us with 19 more points. Total 69 points.

Ahh here, win away at Ulster. When did that last happen?

ConnachtCows wrote: Top 6 is all I care about still. Well, Heineken Cup qualification, no matter how it happens.
Anything after that is a huge boost. We have a very tough finish to the season, so I'm setting my expectations slightly low.

I'm going to be negative, and predict what points we pick up from now until the end of the season
Ospreys, lbp (+1)
Edinburgh, lbp (+1)
Leinster, lbp (+1)
Munster, lbp (+1)
Ulster, nothing (0)
Treviso, win (+4)
Glasgow, lbp (+1)

That will put us on 59 points, which will hopefully be enough for top 6

even with that ultraconservative approach we can still get top6, now if you had started off with +4 against Ospreys then your conversation immediatley changes to a Top4. We can win I'm sure of that, but we need things to go our way on the day and do all the postitive things well.

Whatever about talking about Top 4 (I have already well and truly jinxed that), can we please, please have an unwritten ban on the term "Top 6"?
Remember that finishing sixth guarantees us nothing.

I am already having nightmares about finishing 6th and going into the Challenge Cup.

Does anybody know if there is a financial incentive to finishing top 4, other than additional game(s) and the gate they would bring in? (and am I right in thinking that the money goes through the IRFU first anyways so it might not even make it to Galway?)

Same question for top 6 or whoever qualifies for Champions cup - is there "top-up" prize money for that?

Just curious as to how much extra cash may be available that wasn't budgeted for. Might help with keeping Muldowney, or pulling in some other players.

FFS Connacht Cows - what side of the bed did you get out of this morning. 1 win in the last 7 - 9 points only - oh ye of little faith.
The really crucial games are the next two. Ospreys and Edinburgh are our direct rivals for Heineken qualification. Beat Ospreys next weekend and they will find it virtually impossible to catch us. It's also looking extremely unlikely that both Scottish teams will catch us and pass us out, so anything out of the game in Edinburgh (provided we've beaten Ospreys) and we're home and hosed and can start thinking Top 4.
I think as follows:
Ospreys win - 4pts.
Edinburgh lbp - 1 pt.
Leinster lbp - 1 pt.
Munster win - 4 pts.
Ulster - win - 4 pts.
Treviso win/tbp - 5 pts.
Glasgow - nothing 0 pts.
Leaving us with 19 more points. Total 69 points.

menacethedenis wrote: Are we allowed talk about being play-off contenders, and being disappointed if we 'only' make top 6 yet? Or are we still trying to not jinx it?

We should absolutely be thinking about the play-offs

Who would have thought at the start of the season that only qualifying for the HCv2 would be a disappointment!

Top 6 is all I care about still. Well, Heineken Cup qualification, no matter how it happens.
Anything after that is a huge boost. We have a very tough finish to the season, so I'm setting my expectations slightly low.

I'm going to be negative, and predict what points we pick up from now until the end of the season
Ospreys, lbp (+1)
Edinburgh, lbp (+1)
Leinster, lbp (+1)
Munster, lbp (+1)
Ulster, nothing (0)
Treviso, win (+4)
Glasgow, lbp (+1)

That will put us on 59 points, which will hopefully be enough for top 6

menacethedenis wrote: Are we allowed talk about being play-off contenders, and being disappointed if we 'only' make top 6 yet? Or are we still trying to not jinx it?

I'll be dissapointed if we don't have a HOME semi-final

Are we allowed talk about being play-off contenders, and being disappointed if we 'only' make top 6 yet? Or are we still trying to not jinx it?

two more and a few BP are enough thank god

Accidentally Onside wrote: We've the same number of wins and points already this year as we had in all of last season

3 wins should secure top 6, all the better if those came against Munster and Osprey :evil:

If three more wins are needed, then there will be nothing better than securing that 6th spot against Leinster at home.

Big win for Scarlets today. Having seen them a good bit of late they looked to be fading away slightly but they fully deserved their win today. Ulster are missing a few in the pack and the rest are nowhere near up to standard. Nick Williams was a big loss to them when they were trying to break the gain line near the end.

Today's result makes next week an even bigger game. We need to finish ahead of one of Scarlets or Ospreys. Putting more distance between ourselves and Ospreys is now even more important.

Ulster still have 2 games to come against Zebre but a loss at Cardiff next week may get them a bit worried.

Still lots of twists and turns to come in the weeks ahead.

Updated with the latest results

pinky wrote: Bookies giving Edinburgh no chance now, 200-1. Not sure why they're so far behind Ospreys at 22-1. Their next 4 are winnable. I'm probably missing something obvious ...

Form table over the last 3 and a bit rounds (since players went to 6N camps) shows why Edinburgh are such long odds. Also explains why we've come in from 20/1 to 10 or 12/1 (we were as low as 8/1 on some sites before Scarlets beat Ulster) to win the whole thing.

Connacht - P3 W3 - 15 Pts
Ulster - P4 W3 - 14 Pts
Ospreys - P3 W2 - 10 Pts
Leinster - P3 W2 - 9 Pts
Scarlets - P3 W2 - 8 Pts
Treviso - P3 W2 - 8 Pts
Glasgow - P3 W1 - 8 Pts
Dragons - P4 W1 - 7 Pts
Munster - P3 W1 - 6 Pts
Cardiff - P3 W1 - 6 Pts
Edinburgh - P3 W0 - 2 Pts
Zebre - P3 W0 - 2 Pts

We've the same number of wins and points already this year as we had in all of last season

3 wins should secure top 6, all the better if those came against Munster and Osprey :evil:

Scarlets were excellent. Open rugby, great play out wide and solid rucking. Glad we don't have to play them again.