salmson wrote:

wp_rathead wrote: So with Grenoble beating London Irish is it most likely we'll be facing Sale in away quarter?

If the Sale and Grenoble games go with home advantage (and with same match points) & Gloucester don't stuff it up at Zebre, then the 5 pool winners will most likely be seeded (1) Quins (2) Gloucs (3) Sale (4) Grenoble (5) Connacht which would leave us away in France. Sale are the second most likely team but I think we could conceivably end up against almost anyone

Really really hope you you got this right.
It assumes a win for us and Newcastle doing a job over Brive.
A Brive win and we will definitely need the 5 points to top the pool.
If Brive win and get the 5 points against Newcastle then we end up as pool runners-up, probably in 7th and that gives us Gloucester.
Brive will want to top the pool now aswell and get Grenoble in the QF with a home Semi if they win that (I think)
They have a lot to play for as well.

wp_rathead wrote: So with Grenoble beating London Irish is it most likely we'll be facing Sale in away quarter?

If the Sale and Grenoble games go with home advantage (and with same match points) & Gloucester don't stuff it up at Zebre, then the 5 pool winners will most likely be seeded (1) Quins (2) Gloucs (3) Sale (4) Grenoble (5) Connacht which would leave us away in France. Sale are the second most likely team but I think we could conceivably end up against almost anyone

So with Grenoble beating London Irish is it most likely we'll be facing Sale in away quarter?

pinky wrote: I've already jinxed it by looking at flights. Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Let me guess, you have concluded that the cheapest option is to fly via Amsterdam

I've already jinxed it by looking at flights. Sorry, I couldn't resist.

QF in France in April. Now that would be a trip worth taking.

And I'd prefer to drive to Grenoble than London

Fifth seed is nearly better than fourth. I'd prefer to be away to Grenoble and home to Quins than the other way round.

CONN8 wrote: Looking at Newcastle losing means we need 5 points next week to get top spot (can't see Brive getting 5 points against Newcastle), after that there could be any type to scenario, its knock out rugby so we could beat anyone.

Looks like we'll very likely be 5th seed, QF most likely away to Grenoble (though Sale, Edinburgh and even Gloucester are possible but respectively less likely options). If we win that we'd be looking at a home semi against Quins.

Looking at Newcastle losing means we need 5 points next week to get top spot (can't see Brive getting 5 points against Newcastle), after that there could be any type to scenario, its knock out rugby so we could beat anyone.

Will get 5 pts from the Russians. Newcastle are out after losing in Sochi. If can avoid Quins have a shot, however the 3rd or 4th seed in the QF cannot be at home in the SF - new rules.

We would have been in the same situation with 22 points (a win without BP today) 20 (a draw) or 19 (as we should be next week).
Whatever Brive does next week, we'll probably be the last of the pool winners or one of the best 2nd. Which means away QF.

19 to 22 points was the range for an away QF; I don't care if it's Gloucester, Grenoble, Embra or even Brive. Just would like to avoid a heavy defeat against Harlenquins.
IMO the most likely scenario for QF is a good old trip to Kingston-Park for Connacht.
But it could also be the worst (Quins)
or more original (Grenoble or Sale away)
The other scenario (Embra, Dragons) are less likely IMO, but who knows...

No regret tonight : 3 tries, no injuries (JHW concussion aside)

Ok due to that mess up the calculators have to be brought out. We are currently one point behind Brive, going by the below if we are level with them next weekend we will win the group

(b) If two clubs in the same pool are equal on match points at the end of the pool stage, their ranking will be determined by the results of the two matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:
(i) the club with the greater number of match points from those matches; (5-5) or
(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from those matches (39-38 to Connacht): or
(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in those matches (6-3 to Connacht)

Newcastle will be at home. Hopefully they'll want to prove a point and can at least deny Brive a bonus point, if they do a 5 pointer against Enisei will do.

If we miss out on top spot, we could qualify in 7th or 8th. We'd only miss out if Montpellier beat Harlequins and some unlikely events happened in Pool 5. Pool 5 is interesting and our ranking against them may come down to points difference.

By my reckoning if we win by at least 25 points with 4 or more tries next weekend we'll qualify as we'll have the points difference over Edinburgh if we finish level on points with them in the unlikely event they draw with Grenoble. A decisive result either way there as long as there isn't 2 bonus points for Grenoble would get us through.

All so needlessly complicated at this stage!

Connacht has to video-analyse the defensive mauls and ability to counter the "pick and go" from Dragons. Was a masterpiece

Borders no.2 wrote:

connachta wrote:

Borders no.2 wrote: In the other game, Montpellier stole it against Cardiff with a converted try at the death to win 23-22. That result moves Cardiff on to 11 points and Montpellier on to 10. Harlequins in firm control of that group. You'd have to question if a 2nd team will come out of that pool now though. Both Cardiff and Montpellier look to have guaranteed 5 pointers to come against Calvisano but its doubtful either team will be able to pick up a win against Harlequins.

I've just watched the rules before you posted this, and have to precise that if Montpellier picks a defensive BP up at home against Quins, it won't be enough (same total than Cardiff, but the blues ahead because of head-to-head games)

Ok but is 16 going to be enough in any event? Our pool could decide whether it is or isn't. A win for either Newcastle or Brive over us would strongly open up the possibility of one of them qualifying. I'd say Newcastle in particular as they have Brive still to come at home. Worst case scenario for us we get nothing from the next 2 games we would more than likely still make the quarter final with a 5 pointer against Enesei in the final game.

Long way to go I know but looking at the likely 2nd place side totals
Pool 1 16 or 19.
Pool 2 2nd place will probably be higher than 16
Pool 3 Almost certainly 16.
Pool 4 2nd place total is likely to be very low (maybe as low as 9 or 10)
Pool 5 2nd place will probably be higher than 16 (closer to 20 I'd imagine)

You're right. But what I implied is that if Montpellier have a good chance to qualify ONLY if they beat Harlequins home (19 points overall), it could be a really good incentive for them. And then, Quins would finish with 25-26 points, and we'd have a slim possibility to finish top 2, so home semi-final afterward. A lot of "if", but not totally unlikely!

The process for deciding who gets a home semifinal is ridiculously complicated:

KNOCKOUT STAGE
2.4 The clubs ranked 1 to 4 will have home advantage for the quarter-finals as follows:

Club 1 v Club 8 (QF1) Club 4 v Club 5 (QF2)
Club 3 v Club 6 (QF3) Club 2 v Club 7 (QF4)

NB The new format for the semi-final matches in the Challenge Cup recognises performances by clubs during the pool stages as well as the achievement of a winning a quarter-final match away from home.

The winner of QF1 will play the winner of QF2 in one semi-final, and the winner of QF3 will play the winner of QF4 in the other semi-final as follows:

Semi-final 1: winner QF1 v winner QF2
Semi-final 2: winner QF3 v winner QF4

The semi-final matches will be played at venues designated by EPCR, but the following clubs will have home venue advantage in their respective semi-final matches:

(a) For Semi-final 1

If the clubs ranked 1 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 1 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 1 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 8 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home venue advantage

(b) For Semi-final 2

If the clubs ranked 3 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 2 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 3 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 7 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home venue advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home venue advantage

The final match will be played at a venue designated by EPCR.

Depending on how the chips fall you might nearly prefer an away quarter final against one of the more disinterested team to have a better chance of a home semi.

For example, in last season's quarter finals, Edinburgh beat London Irish away. The season before (when the HC runners up dropped into the competition) there were two away wins in the quarters. The year before that there were three away wins.

It's likely that someone who wins their home quarter final is going to feel very hard done by, because of something completely out of their control. What's the betting it's Connacht?

(Is there anything to be said for targeting sixth seed )