The result tonight has changed things a fair bit. Hopefully everything goes ok tomorrow in the other games. Either way a game against Gloucester is potentially down the tracks at some stage. :evil:

Challenge cup wikipedia page was updated.
As it currently stands this is the seedings.
Connacht can only finish 5th or 8th to qualify.

Really hoping Newcastle do us a favour and prevent a brive bonus point win and Edinburgh beat Grenoble without bernard jackman's team getting 2 bonus points to finish on 20.

Going to be a long and stressful day. Stock up on your refreshments and snacks clan men and women!

Interesting. If that happens, Montpelier could win in Sale and then get another home match against Quins followed by a final in Lyon (against Connacht naturally).

I'd say it will end up like this
Glos 26
Harlequins 25
Sale 23
Grenoble 23
Connacht 19
Montpelier 20
Dragons 20
Brive 19



Its a big ask for the quins side thats been selected win in France when Montpelier still have something to play for.

Brive have gone with almost the same backline as last week. A good few changes in the pack, but not many from the side that beat Montpellier. Not sure if it's a stronger or weaker pack TBH.
Newcastle brought back in a good few first teamers but not full strength from what I can see. Still a TBP would be a big ask for Brive.

That Sale win makes things a lot clearer. Assuming Brive fail to get the try bonus, we'll be away to the winner of Grenoble Edinburgh, unless Gloucester lose at Zebre, in which case it's back to the West Country timeshare.

If we win by 25 or more with the bonus point we'll be grand in any circumstances bar Edinburgh scoring 4 tries in a draw or Grenoble scoring 4 tries and losing by less than 7 along with Montpellier beating Harlequins and Brive getting a bonus point win over Newcastle.

We'll know going in on Saturday how Montpellier have done already. Montpellier have a good scoring difference already +72 so if they won we'd need a huge win (we're on +9 at present) to overtake them.

I think Newcastle will be competitive v Brive, Harlequins will beat Montpellier and while Grenoble v Edinburgh is likely to be tight, any game involving Edinburgh is unlikely to have a glut of tries either way.

Do our business and we'll qualify one way or another, hopefully as group winners.

Ah ya was just some Permutations in the unlikely scenario Brive do pull of a TBP Win

It's not that complicated really.

Assuming we get to 19 points then only a Brive bp win in Newcastle can stop us finishing top of the group. Newcastle are still in with a shout of second and while Brive have got a Top 14 try bonus win away to Oyonnax this season (three tries to nil, mind) and have scored 4 tries in an away match last season (they still lost to Racing though), to find a 4 try away win for them I think (open to correction here) you have to go back to 2011 in the Challenge Cup against Rugby Club La Vila (who?). So very very unlikely. Edit: should also have mentioned that Brive are home to Oyannax and away to Agen the 2 w/ends after the QFs, so they probably don't need/want the distraction. It's not like they looked over-interested against us.

That would leave us 5th seed regardless of whether there are a skite of teams on 19 points or not - Quins and Gloucs have already topped that points haul and at least one of Sale/Dragons and at least one of Grenoble/Edinburgh will do likewise no matter what the results in their games. So the only real question is who we are away to. Current points totals and match odds indicate our possible opponents are in descending order (1) Grenoble (2) Sale (3) Edinburgh (4) Gloucester (5) Dragons.

I'm probably fecking up somewhere but:
If we get TBP Win on Sat we'll be on 19 points
Lets say for arguments sake Brive get a TBP Win in Newcastle and are on 20

Sale (on 18) play Dragons (on 20)
A win, draw or 2 BPs for Sale will bring them 20+
1 BP will get them level on 19 with Connacht

Montpellier (on 15) v Quins (on 25)
A TBP Win for Montpellier will get them 20
A win will get them level on 19 with Connacht

Grenoble (on 18) v Edinburgh (on 17)
A win for either will bring them above 20
A draw with both sides getting TBP will bring both to 21/20
A draw / a LBP with a TBP will bring Grenoble to 20
A LBP and TBP will bring Edinburgh to 19 level with Connacht
A LBP or TBP will bring Grenoble to 19 level with Connacht

There could be a scenario where Connacht, Sale, Montpellier and Grenoble/Edinburgh are all on 19 points..

RogueXV wrote: Had a little laugh at Dean's whinge about their trip to Sochi. I guess he missed the travel report on Connacht's trip to and especially return from Siberia not to mention the playing conditions. Not sure if he is committing to naming his strongest side or just saying whatever 15 they put out there they will be putting in their maximum effort to win.

Aye the contrast to how Lam viewed the away fixture is quite telling
Plus they only gave themselves a day to adjust whereas Connacht went over on the Tuesday and everyone seemed to buy into the adventure (although Krasnoyarsk is bit more exotic than Sochi Infairness)
Hopefully Newcastle can deny Brive getting a TBP and our lads do the business on Saturday

Had a little laugh at Dean's whinge about their trip to Sochi. I guess he missed the travel report on Connacht's trip to and especially return from Siberia not to mention the playing conditions. Not sure if he is committing to naming his strongest side or just saying whatever 15 they put out there they will be putting in their maximum effort to win.

You're right

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/sport/rugby-unio...ng-full-out-10746629

Bear in mind Newcastle aren't totally out of it yet. They would need Enisei to pull off another shock but if that happened they'd be in with a good shot so mightn't abandon it altogether. Obviously avoiding relegation is their first priority but having rested a lot of players for Enisei they might want to give them a run-out again before they play Quins.

Banm wrote: Whatever happens I hope it's not in France because I can't go either way!

So if Banm doesn't get his Magret de Canard there's to be no duck for anyone.

Whatever happens I hope it's not in France because I can't go either way!