ConnachtCows wrote:

RonanL wrote: If someone had the time/inclination/ability, I'd be interested in seeing a more complex prediction of how the remaining fixtures are likely to pan out, based somehow on the form this season of the teams in each game. For example, looking at cows last update, Leinster hammered Scarlets in Wales last year, but it seems Leinster's form has dropped considerably since last season, so it's unlikely that they will repeat that feat this year?

I will only accept the model that predicts Connacht comfortably securing 6th place

The best I could do

Basically using Patchy’s data from above, I have predicted, in a very simple manner how teams will finish up this season. My logic is basic, and easily laughed at.
Basically, in the case of any team, I divide their current points difference from last season, by the number of games played (15) and multiply the value by the remaining games (7), and add the values together.
Take Munster for example.
They're 5 points worse off, after 15 games. That tells me that in comparison to last season, they lose 1 point every 3 games. With 7 games left, they'll lose another 2.33 points, so they'll end up losing 7.333 points this season, when compared to last season. Last season, they ended with 74 points, so this season, they will end up with 66.66 points. Or 67 if I round up they're total.

Final Points Difference total

Connacht 20.533
Edinburgh 13.2
Ospreys 0
Glasgow -1.4666
Dragons -1.4666
Treviso - 2.9333
Ulster -2.9333
Scarlets -5.8666
Munster -7.3333
Cardiff -11.7333
Zebre -14.666
Leinster -16.1333

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Well you came to the right conclusion anyway!

In summary, if all teams continue to play as well as they have this year compared to last year, then we will come 6th. Hopefully that's the case. Realistically, I think everyone would agree we have lost our way a little of late, so we'll need to rediscover some form pretty quickly if we're going to do it. We'll also need some luck with injuries. For example, having Robbie and Bundee back available would be a huge boost. Similarly, we could do with Nathan back I feel.

One thing is certain, there's going to be some twists and turns between now and the end of May. I'm going to predict one right now - a Connacht victory against Munster in Thomand. I can feel it in my waters.

Nice one Cows, that meets RonanL's criteria.
Now, has anyone got a prediction model that gets us into the playoffs?

RonanL wrote: If someone had the time/inclination/ability, I'd be interested in seeing a more complex prediction of how the remaining fixtures are likely to pan out, based somehow on the form this season of the teams in each game. For example, looking at cows last update, Leinster hammered Scarlets in Wales last year, but it seems Leinster's form has dropped considerably since last season, so it's unlikely that they will repeat that feat this year?

I will only accept the model that predicts Connacht comfortably securing 6th place

The best I could do

Basically using Patchy’s data from above, I have predicted, in a very simple manner how teams will finish up this season. My logic is basic, and easily laughed at.
Basically, in the case of any team, I divide their current points difference from last season, by the number of games played (15) and multiply the value by the remaining games (7), and add the values together.
Take Munster for example.
They're 5 points worse off, after 15 games. That tells me that in comparison to last season, they lose 1 point every 3 games. With 7 games left, they'll lose another 2.33 points, so they'll end up losing 7.333 points this season, when compared to last season. Last season, they ended with 74 points, so this season, they will end up with 66.66 points. Or 67 if I round up they're total.

Final Points Difference total

Connacht 20.533
Edinburgh 13.2
Ospreys 0
Glasgow -1.4666
Dragons -1.4666
Treviso - 2.9333
Ulster -2.9333
Scarlets -5.8666
Munster -7.3333
Cardiff -11.7333
Zebre -14.666
Leinster -16.1333

If someone had the time/inclination/ability, I'd be interested in seeing a more complex prediction of how the remaining fixtures are likely to pan out, based somehow on the form this season of the teams in each game. For example, looking at cows last update, Leinster hammered Scarlets in Wales last year, but it seems Leinster's form has dropped considerably since last season, so it's unlikely that they will repeat that feat this year?

I will only accept the model that predicts Connacht comfortably securing 6th place

I make Scarlets -4 on last year.
Here's the full list of +/- as of this weekend
Connacht 14
Edinburgh 9
Ospreys 0
Glasgow -1
Dragons -1
Treviso -2
Ulster -2
Scarlets -4
Munster -5
Cardiff -8
Zebre -10
Leinster -11

I'd like if I was wrong, but the points totals fit in with the tables from both years, so it's unlikely

No idea why I did this, or of what benefit it is, but hopefully someone will find it useful

Very hard to call. You'd expect Scarlets to do better with their remaining fixtures than they did last season, but while their last 4 games are fairly handy, 3 of them are away, and they are yet to win a single away game this season.

Connacht 37 points +14 vs. last season's fixtures
Competition points in remaining fixtures last season 11

Treviso (h) 5
Cardiff (a) 0
Munster (a) 1
Ulster (h) 0
Glasgow (h) 0
Zebre (a) 5
Ospreys (h) 0

Scarlets 35 points -7 vs. last season's fixtures
Competition points in remaining fixtures last season 13

Ulster (a) 0
Leinster (h) 0
Edinburgh (h) 4
Zebre (a) 2
Dragons (a) 1
Cardiff (h) 1
Treviso (a) 5

Edinburgh 33 points +9 vs. last season's fixtures
Competition points in remaining fixtures last season 14

Cardiff (a) 0
Treviso (a) 1
Scarlets (a) 1
Munster (h) 0
Zebre (h) 4
Dragons (a) 4
Leinster (h) 4

If the table looks like this after the next 2 games I'd like Connacht's chances of finishing 6th a lot better:

Connacht on 45
Scarlets on 36
Edinburgh on 34

A 9 point cushion might help them overcome their difficult spring schedule. They will still need to win one of their home games against Ulster, Glasgow or Ospreys and pick up a BP in any loss, but if they do that while not slipping up against Zebre they could end on 55/56 which would pretty much require Edinburgh or, more likely, the Scarlets to win out in order to catch them. A bit of a stretch but not beyond the realm of possibilities.

This weekend:
Connacht +4 pts (Win) on 37
Scarlets +2pts (Draw) on 35
Edinburgh +1 pts (LBP) on 33

Next weekend:
Connacht v Treviso
Ulster v Scarlets
Cardiff v Edinburgh

munster leave it till the 80th minute to salvage a draw

Munster rescue a draw. Bit of a self-destruct from Scarlets. Crowd unhappy with our friend Dudley but these couple of results have given us a break we probably didn't deserve. We need to take advantage tomorrow.

Felix Jones gets in for a try but Keatley misses the conversion. Scarlets 7 up but a man down for last few minutes.

Try for Scarlets by Parkes following a charge down on Keatley. Converted 22-13. That's probably that.

Excellent kick from Steve Shingler brings it to 15-13.

55 mins gone. scarlets 12 munster 13

Good pressure from Munster and Jack O'Donoghue in for a try. Converted by Keatley. 12-13.