10-8 to Leinster at half time. Try from Te'o put Leinster in a good position but Scarlets have finished the half strongly. This will go to the wire I'd say.

Isn't it just bloody fantastic having something to play for at this stage of the season. I am loving it

A win is needed this weekend to get the top 6 spot. Craig at 10 has been great. I just hope he can stay fit. Carty's time will come again.
We need other teams to continue to take points off Scarlets. I'd rather have points in the bag and be out front rather that counting future wins.
I expect every week things will change for teams and their desire for match points.

We need to beat Cardiff. End of. I remember saying at the start of this bank of 4 games we'd need 14 pts from them to fend off Scarlets given our run-in. I'll take 13 with a win in Cardiff this Friday. If we don't pull it off then Scarlets will catch us IMHO.

We should be more positive- look up not down: we're closer to Osprey in 5th than Scarlets in 7th, and closer to Leinster in 4th than Edinburgh in 8th

A couple of bad results for Osprey and they could be out of contention for 4th by the time they come to the SG.

.......that said I'd snap your arm off for 6th now :sick:

rossie wrote: lose and it's over bar a miraculous run of results. its realistic to expect the scarlets to accumulate 20 more points with the games they have left. I can see them winning 11 games in total which means that connacht have to beat Cardiff, zebre and one of their home games plus pick up as many bp as possible.

Scarlet v Leinster 1LBPts
Scarlets v Edinburgh 1LBPts or 4Pts
Zebre v Scarlets 4Pts+1TBPts
NGD v Scarlets 1LBPts or 4Pts
Scarlets v Cardiff 4Pts
Treviso v Scarlets 4Pts

Worsed case 22Pts, Best case 15pts

If they end up on between 51-54pts then even if we lose to Cardiff we should be able to get enough points.

Obviously if they end up on 58pts and we lose to Cardif we are in big trouble but not insurmountable, i still think one of their games will be a banana skin for them, possible away to dragons or at home to edinburgh

You may well be correct, but ive a feeling that it will be very close at the end. You can count all the potential points that you want but they are still not in the bag.
Eg: our last game is Zebre, if they are still in the hunt for europe themselves that could be an extremely hard game, if they are out of the running it could be a straightforward game.

there will be plenty of games where the needs of the opposition will determine the strength of the team selection and whether the team is tuned in or not, Ospreys could if they dont get their act together get dragged into the race also.

Atm we have a six point lead and an 8 point lead the others have to better our results substantially to overtake us.

Theres only 6 games left, Id much prefer points in the bag then potential points on paper.

lose and it's over bar a miraculous run of results. its realistic to expect the scarlets to accumulate 20 more points with the games they have left. I can see them winning 11 games in total which means that connacht have to beat Cardiff, zebre and one of their home games plus pick up as many bp as possible.

the short turnaround is irrelevant as its the same for Cardiff who played on Sunday as well.

rossie wrote: Another interesting factor is that in the event of a tie on points it's games won that decides it not head to head, tries scored or points difference. as it stands connacht have 9 wins to Scarlets 6.
This weekend's game is key.

Playing first this weekend is a huge advantage, notwithstanding the short turnaround. If we win this then as Rossie says the games won rule means Scarlets have to best, not equal, our points total. Realistically that would leave them going into the Leinster match needing to win at least 4, and probably 5, wins from 6. That would be all but game over.

Lose, on the other hand....

Another interesting factor is that in the event of a tie on points it's games won that decides it not head to head, tries scored or points difference. as it stands connacht have 9 wins to Scarlets 6.
This weekend's game is key.

I honestly believe that Cardiff is the key game. Hopefully Leinster will do us a favour but we need to help ourselves first of all away at Cardiff. I have seen a good bit of Cardiff this season and they have rarely impressed me. If we keep our composure and discipline the chances will come for us. Win that and we give ourselves a real chance going into the final straight.

Looking ahead/back, there is 12 games/ 11 teams remaining that concern Connacht and Scarlets.
Cardiff away - Scarlets 0. 4 points here would be massive. Could be 9 point gap in table if Leinster beat Scarlets. Heads could drop.
Munster away - Scarlets 0. We have to at least make ground back here with a losing bonus point.
Ulster home - Scarlets 3. We need a win, and I believe that is what we'll get.
Glasgow home - Scarlets 4. Unlikely, think we'll have to do with 1 point here.
Ospreys home - Scarlets 4. Another big game and might have to be 1 point

Scarlets remaining games.
Leinster home. - Connacht 4. Fingers crossed that our friends do us a favour. 1 point I think Scarlets will get
Edinburgh home - Connacht 1 point. Scarlets to win, 4.
Dragons away - Connacht 4. Think the Scarlets will win this. 4 points
Cardiff home - Connacht 2. Scarlets to win this 4 points. Dont remind me of our game
Treviso away - Connacht 4. Im going to put money on a Treviso win here

We both play Zebre away, wins all around.

That would leave Connacht picking up 16 points and Scarlets 18 points + whatever happens in the Treviso game. (If its a win, 4 points, its both teams on 58 points. Connacht on 12 wins, Scarlets on 11 wins = Connacht finish 6th.

My little table is updated on page 1 of this thread.
Going to leave out Edinburgh of this post as they are 8 points behind.

The pro12 table tells us that we are currently 6 points ahead of Scarlets, I am looking at it as Connacht being ahead only by 2 points.
Both Connacht and Scarlets have played 9 of the same games, plus our head to head.
5 of them games, we've bagged the same amount of points.
Dragons at home - 4 points
Treviso at home - 5 points
Ulster away - 1 point
Leinster away - 0
Glasgow away - 0

In the other 'same' 4 games, we've picked up 13 points and Scarlets picked up 9 points.
Munster at home, Connacht 4 points, Scarlets 2 points
Zebre at home, Connacht 5 points, Scarlets 4 points
Osprreys away, Connacht 0, Scarlets 1 point
Edinburgh away, Connacht 4, Scarlets 2 points

Its the head to head that Scarlets claim the gap from 4 point gap on the same games down to 2.
We got 4 points during the head to head where as Scarlets got 6 points.

tad off topic, but following is pretty amusing:
Next week in the Pro 12 is
Cardiff v Connacht
Lanelli v Leinster
Ospreys v Munster
Dragons v Ulster
The Week after is
Wales vs Ireland

21-15 to Cardiff at full time. Big result for us. Edinburgh dominated the 2nd half but weren't able to take advantage. They pick up a losing bonus point but this gives us a good chance this evening to open up a bit of daylight over them.