Cant believe i'm coming back to this thread and saying "we have a bloody good chance at 6th spot". Edinburgh won yesterday vs the scarlets in Wales and scarlets failed to even pick up a LBP. Connacht 43, Edinburgh 43, Scarlets 40.
I still think its between Connacht and Scarlets.

Home Games Connacht Edinburgh Scarlets
Vs Ulster . . . . . . DNP . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . 3
Vs Leinster . . . . 4 . . . . . . . .DNP . . . . . .4
Vs Munster . . . . 4 . . . . . . . .DNP . . . . . .2
Vs Glasgow . . . .DNP . . . . .4 . . . . . . . . .4
Vs Dragons . . . .4 . . . . . . . .4 . . . . . . . . .4
Vs Cardiff . . . . . 2 . . . . . . . .4 . . . . . . . . .DNP
Vs Ospreys . . . .DNP . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . .4
Vs Treviso . . . . .5 . . . . . . . .5 . . . . . . . . 5
Vs Zebre . . . . . .5 . . . . . . . . DNP . . . . . 4

Away Games Connacht Edinburgh Scarlets
Vs Ulster . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . . . 1
Vs Leinster . . . .0 . . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . . . 0
Vs Munster . . . 0 . . . . . . . .4 . . . . . . . . 0
Vs Glasgow . . .0 . . . . . . . .0 . . . . . . . . 0
Vs Dragons . . .4 . . . . . . . .DNP . . . . . DNP
Vs Cardiff . . . .1 . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . .0
Vs Ospreys . . .0 . . . . . . . .0 . . . . . . . . 1
Vs Treviso . . . 4 . . . . . . . .5 . . . . . . .. .DNP
Vs Zebre . . . . DNP . . . . . 0 . . . . . . . . DNP

Head to Head
Connacht vs Scarlets = Conn 4 points / Scar 1 point
Scarlets vs Connacht = Scar 5 points / Conn 0 points

Connacht vs Edinburgh = Conn 1 point / Edin 4 points
Edinburgh vs Connacht = Edin 1 point / Conn 4 points

Edinburgh vs Scarlets = Edin 2 points / Scar 2 points
Scarlets vs Edinburgh = Scar 0 points / Edin 4 points[/quote]

Having played the same games we are 6 points better of but the Connacht/Scarlets head to head bring it to Connacht 4 points better of.

Ulster home, max we'll get is 4 points which is 1 point better off than Scarlets result = +1
Glasgow home, max is 4 points, same a Scarlets = +/-
Ospreys home, max is 4 points, same as Scarlets = +/-

Scarlets
"AWAY" to dragons, we got 4, so Scarlets could get 5 = +1
Cardiff at home, 5 points. we got 2 = +3
Treviso away, 4 points, same as us = +/-

If we match Scarlets result vs Zebre and win all our home games (no bonus point needed) we can allow Scarlets to win ALL 4 games WITH try bonus point and we'll finish 6th

salmson wrote:

Borders no.2 wrote: Either way we'll need at a minimum 3 wins to even be in with a shot for 6th/7th I'd imagine.

It's hard to see Edinburgh getting anything at all from Leinster or Munster, so 10 points should be enough for 7th - I make that 2 wins: a 5-pointer at Zebre and a win and a lbp from our last 3 home games.

Despite their poor showing today, Scarlets are still in the box seat for 6th and should be looking to get 14-18 points from their last 4 games.

I'd agree re: Edinburgh. I don't believe they'll get anything off Munster but wouldn't want to be relying on Leinster in the final round. That sort of game would have been a routine win for Leinster the last few years but this year I wouldn't be putting any money on them. Its likely Leinster will still be fighting for something in that game so thats a positive. Zebre is a guaranteed 5 for them. Dragons can hopefully at least deny them a 4 try bonus.

Dragons have been hot and cold the last few weeks but would regard them as our best hope of denying Scarlets 4 straight wins to finish the season. Derby game in the Millenium Stadium. Would obviously prefer that in Rodney Parade but that's the way it is.

Its hard to escape the feeling that the best of the season is over for us and any points apart from Zebre away will be hard to get. A win over Ulster would be huge as it would complete the 3 home wins over the provinces in one season and would give us some momentum heading into the home straight. We need a few bodies back for that one though as Ulster have regained some momentum in the last couple of months with players coming back and a favourable enough run of fixtures.

Borders no.2 wrote: Either way we'll need at a minimum 3 wins to even be in with a shot for 6th/7th I'd imagine.

It's hard to see Edinburgh getting anything at all from Leinster or Munster, so 10 points should be enough for 7th - I make that 2 wins: a 5-pointer at Zebre and a win and a lbp from our last 3 home games.

Despite their poor showing today, Scarlets are still in the box seat for 6th and should be looking to get 14-18 points from their last 4 games.

15-26 at full time. Must admit I didn't see that coming but its a big win for Edinburgh. Good result for us in the chase for 6th but bad result in the race for 7th. Importantly though no bonus points which is very helpful.

Getting news of this result in the dressing room has to give further motivation to our lads ahead of the Munster game though.

Either way the Ulster game will be hugely significant in 2 weeks time.

Edinburgh have Munster at home next up, they have the Challenge Cup quarter final to come before then. Munster should be able to do us a favour there. Zebre at home after that and Dragons away and Leinster at home to finish off. Munster and Leinster can't afford to lose those games and should be at full strength.

Either way we'll need at a minimum 3 wins to even be in with a shot for 6th/7th I'd imagine.

Scarlet's in total disarray in that second half, even before the sending off it was looking like Edinburgh would take it.

15-23. Looking good for an Edinburgh win into the final 6 minutes.

This is Edinburgh's for the taking.

Williams and Earle off injured, Davies will be suspended,Samson Lee out for the season, Aaron Shingler out for a few weeks, bodies could be be getting thin on the ground.

Red card for Scarlets replacement Gareth Davies for a headbutt. Hidalgo Clyne makes it 15-20 with 20 mins left. Edinburgh really should win this from here but still all to play for.

Scarlets now struggling to get a foothold now. Edinburgh look to have the edge up front at the moment but Scarlets looking dangerous in open play. On a knife-edge at the moment.

Magpie wrote: Edinburgh have taken control of this match and go in at the break 2 points up, they've sorted their discipline and now Scarlet's pack are in disarray, with a bad lineout costing them dear.

Don't know who I want to win this.

Main thing I want is no bonus points. They were talking in commentary about Scarlets having the wind in the 2nd half. Don't know is the wind hugely significant though. I'd still expect Scarlets to come through in the 2nd half.

Edinburgh have taken control of this match and go in at the break 2 points up, they've sorted their discipline and now Scarlet's pack are in disarray, with a bad lineout costing them dear.

Don't know who I want to win this.

CONN8 wrote: it's scary how many decisions have gone against Connacht and have favored Scarletsp.

What decisions have favoured the Scarlets?

Ulster should have played 17 minutes with 13 men according to PRO12 but the Welsh referee and Irish TMO failed to spot any wrongdoing at the time.

CONN8 wrote: Maybe it's the conspiracy theorist in me but it feels like the ERC does not want 4 teams from Ireland in the H cup next season, and they are doing their best to relegate connacht and promote a 2nd team from Wales ie Scarlets to the fold which will probably generate more money for the ERC.

How exactly would ERC be engineering this?

It certainly looks like 6th place is Scarlets to lose now, but I'm not giving up hope just yet

Munster away - Think we can get 1 point. Possible to get 4. Hoping for some help from our friends in Limerick
Ulster Home - Targetting 4 points. This is possibly the 2nd easiest game remaining. Ulster are so hot and cold at the moment.
Glasgow Home - We've beaten Leinster and Munster at home this season already. We can get something here - 4 Points
Zebre Away - 5 points. Hopefully Zebre will not be able to catch Treviso at this point, and they're players are mentally on holidays
Ospreys Home - If it's all to play for, this will be a huge game.

Hopefully the disaster of Friday night will galvanise the team. Who knows. The players might now feel that the World is against us, and up their games another level. We should have an almost full squad to pick from

Lts not give up hope just yet. A win against Munster could change everyones attitude very quickly.

Come on Connacht. Time for the leaders in the squad to stand up, and get the team hungry and motivated

What were the chances on every province losing this weekend? Dragons had a good win there against Ulster.

6th is gone now. Scarlets form and easy run in assures that. Now we have to scrap Edinburgh for 7th and the play off place. To that end we'll have to hope Scarlets beat Edinburgh in their match-up, and we'll have to concoct at least 10 points in our run in to stay in front of Edinburgh (even with them losing away to Scarlets).