pinky wrote: It's on the list for Connacht. Does that mean, once you exclude the common fixtures and the easy home games, Connacht have one less game? If so that surely gives us an easier run.

You're absolutely right, smth had gone wrong, It's fixed : Cheetahs away for Connacht .

connachta wrote: It'smy personal feeling indeed but I'm convinced we've got way more chances home vs Newcastle UBB/Stade Fr, than away vs vastly improved Edinburgh

Against one of them, probably, but we would have to beat two.

It's on the list for Connacht. Does that mean, once you exclude the common fixtures and the easy home games, Connacht have one less game? If so that surely gives us an easier run.

pinky wrote: Also bear in mind that even if Cardiff finish ahead of us, as long as we stay ahead of Ospreys (admittedly not a guarantee), we're in a playoff.
Edinburgh away won't be easy but it's easier to win one away game against an average team than two home games against good teams..

It'smy personal feeling indeed but I'm convinced we've got way more chances home vs Newcastle UBB/Stade Fr, than away vs vastly improved Edinburgh

pinky wrote: Cardiff also have Ospreys at home on the last day..

Ospreys H&A are common fixtures for both team, as said.

My preferred method of getting into the Champions cup would be by winning the Challenge cup, primarily because it involves us winning a trophy, if we were to have picked up wins in games we usually do well in, Cardiff home, Dragons/Zebre away we'd still have been in contention for the play-offs. But with Cheetahs having two extra games against the Kings they are now out of sight, which for me highlights the mismatch in fixtures, we have two extra games v Leinster and Ulster they play those fixtures against the Kings, which in my book is totally unfair but alas that's the system we've got.

Cardiff also have Ospreys at home on the last day.
I don't think there is a massive difference between those two sets of fixtures. Blues have it slightly easier but not by a huge margin.
Also bear in mind that even if Cardiff finish ahead of us, as long as we stay ahead of Ospreys (admittedly not a guarantee), we're in a playoff.
Edinburgh away won't be easy but it's easier to win one away game against an average team than two home games against good teams.
I'm glad we have the two routes open because neither will be easy.

I think I need to write down both road to Champions Cup qualification, even if, of course, they're based on "reasonable hypothesis" at this stage

let's begin with
PRO14 Road :

Cardiff and Connacht have both the same number of points right now.
They have both 9-10 granted points IMO (Zebre away + Treviso home for Cardiff / Embra and Zebre home for Connacht). Both team will meet Ospreys (A&H) and Cheetahs (A), then those games are not listed as defferentiating either

So the serie of games which will separate both team is

for Connacht :
Munster (A)
Leinster (H)
Treviso (A)
Glasgow (A)


for Cardiff
Munster (H)
Cheetahs (H)
Ulster (H)
Kings (A)

I think it's clear and obvious they have a way easier run-in, and it would mean a complete collapse (or Westerners over-performing a lot), if they're not doing better than Connacht in term of points


Now the Challenge Cup road

If Connacht beat
1) Worcester away by any margin
2) Oyonnax Academy by smth like 25 points margin

They are granted to have :
1) a home QF (possibly Stade Français IMO, maybe Bordeaux/Dragons)
2) a home SF (probably Newcastle), assuming there isn't an unexpected QF away win of 6th seed vs Newcasle (3rd seed)

Then having won those 3, and only 3, very winnable games (Worcester away, Stade Fraçais/UBB/Dragons home, Newcastle home),
We're qualified even as losing finalist if Clermont or Sale or Pau don't win European trophee (as it stands based on domestic tables)