So if Clermont get through, they will either play Munster in nearby Saint-Étienne or Toulon all the way down in Nice. You would imagine they would have a much better chance in the former than the latter.
www.epcrugby.com/news/37422.php
So a Toulon win in Thomond would probably be better for Connacht's qualification hopes. Of course Racing could beat Clermont, but we won't know that til the next day.
Like I'll still want Munster to win, but if they don't, there's that ...

Wasps nearly did Falcons a favour at Welford Rd but not quite. Racing hung on for the win in Lyon though so good news for Pau.
We seem to be doing a lot better in the competitions we're not in.
Clermont utterly imploded in Toulon so you'd have to fancy Racing to have a decent shot against them next week, which would be one less thing to worry about.

No favours from the neighbours anyway
So the automatic spot is officially gone. Ospreys now a point ahead with a game in hand so need to beat them to have a shot at holding on for the play-off, which is now looking very likely to be Treviso.
In fairness to Blues they've given themselves a decent shot at catching Cheetahs now. Their trip to SA will be interesting.
Better news in the other leagues. Newcastle nearly blew it in James Park but hung on. TBP for Pau. Castres lost. Lyon could lose tomorrow.
Gloucester looking fairly comfortable too so might be more concerned about getting a Premiership semi than a Challenge Cup one ...

If Treviso beat Kings today, it might actually be better for Connacht now if Cardiff beat Ulster, since we're not going to catch the Blues and Treviso would be a better end of season trip That said, if Ulster and Connacht were both to miss out it would be bad news for the IRFU coffers, so maybe we should just go with the send of season derby in Belfast option.
Edit: And Treviso have the TBP already.
... and nearly lose the game. Another try-fest in PE ...

Unless I've missed trick it looks like O'Brien isn't in our 44 man European squad, meaning he'd be ineligible for this weekends game, please say these isn't a Griffin for the Northampton game last season style mess up

if that is the case then that means SOB is not in the squad for the Gloucester game which is a huge mistake, surely he'd be in the squad ahead any of those three
Edit: Actually Browne can come back in and replace Gallagher, with O'Brien coming in as one of the three extra players for the knockouts, even so you'd think Gallagher is more likely to feature than Brennan.

O'Donnell, Browne and Brennan added to the Euro-squad

I know we don't have to de-register to add 3 for Final-phases, but I hope it's not a bad sign for Carey. He was "touch-and-go" for early April.
He could be massive for Connacht from the bench...

Sounds like we won't have Bundee back for Edinburgh, and Leinster will be missing a bunch for their trip to Swansea, where we could do with a favour.

www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/pro14/mun...ulon-clash-1.3424431

Always thought players used to get released for this one, but now I look at it, I think Peter O'Mahony was one of the only ones who played in the equivalent fixture last year.
EDIT: Actually some years there were two fixtures between the 6N and the QF, so they got a rest week and still had a game before the QF.

Any potential playoff v Edinburgh will not be at Myreside as that experiment has been abandoned. They have gone back to the "library" for the rest of the season. Fancy them to finish 3rd in B.

As mentioned above Treviso have 3 very winnable games (DRAGONS, ZEBRE and Kings). They may win in Cardiff on Friday, but are unlikely to get anything in the RDS. Given Ulster's run-in, 4th place for them is not a lock in and could slip to 5th place, leaving a potential Treviso v Connacht PO game.

salmson wrote: On point 2 it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that Treviso could make up the 7 point gap on Ulster, dumping them out of the reckoning altogether. Three of their 5 games are against the worst teams in the league Kings, Dragons, and Zebre.

Ulster's run-in on the other hand - Cardiff, Edinburgh, Ospreys, Glasgow & Munster - is absolutely manky. They could conceivably lose all five.

Very good point. Hadn't considered that. If Ulster lose to Cardiff and Ospreys though, Treviso probably won't be playing us in the playoff
Maybe the bit of competition will inspire both Treviso and Ulster to victory in the Arms Park.

On point 2 it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that Treviso could make up the 7 point gap on Ulster, dumping them out of the reckoning altogether. Three of their 5 games are against the worst teams in the league Kings, Dragons, and Zebre.

Ulster's run-in on the other hand - Cardiff, Edinburgh, Ospreys, Glasgow & Munster - is absolutely manky. They could conceivably lose all five.

OK so here is a summary of all the routes I can see into the Champions Cup. Correct me if I've missed one

1. Get ahead of Blues (automatic qualification)
Still possible but getting less likely. We are four points behind but if we draw level, Blues will be ahead on games won so we need to get ahead on league points, in other words win one more game and get more bonus points. Blues have a game in hand at home to Treviso. We'd probably need to win 3 of the remaining 4 (Edinburgh + Leinster at home and Ospreys away) and hope Blues only win max 2 (Treviso at home and only one of Ulster/Ospreys home or Cheetahs/Kings away). Even then they'd probably have more opportunities for BPs.

2. Stay ahead of Ospreys and win an away playoff
First part is doable. Ospreys have 3 away games though Zebre and Blues are beatable. Plus they have to host Leinster. If we can beat them over there, we should be OK. Otherwise we need them to lose nearly everything else. If that happens, we kinda need Ulster to get ahead of Edinburgh on the other side, as whatever about winning a playoff in Myreside, Ravenhill when the chips are down would not be easy.

3. We win the Challenge Cup and an already qualified team wins the Champions Cup
Certainly the most glamorous way to qualify but three big wins needed. If we manage it, Clermont are the danger in the Champions Cup as they won't qualify via the Top 14. La Rochelle could also miss out in the league and win the cup.

4. We lose the Challenge Cup final to an already qualified team and an already qualified team wins the Champions Cup
If Edinburgh make the final, we can probably lose to them and still qualify. Pau starting to look good too.

5. We lose the Challenge Cup semi-final, both the Challenge Cup finalists and the Champions Cup winner are already qualified, and we win a playoff against the other losing semi-finalist.
Head starting to hurt now. This is unlikely. Would probably require Edinburgh to beat Pau in the semi, in which case we would play Pau; or else Ospreys beat Edinburgh in the Pro14 seventh placed playoff and Edinburgh lose the semi, in which case, we'd play Edinburgh.

6. We lose the Challenge Cup semi-final and the three other Challenge Cup semi-finalists and the Champions Cup winner are already qualified.
Would have sounded a bit preposterous a few months ago, but is actually now looking like the most likely route. The other 3 home quarter finalists are all currently in a qualifying position, so if they hold on (and win their QFs), then Connacht's QF against Gloucester could be enough to qualify (as long as Clermont don't spoil the party)

7. The Harry Houdini
Connacht finish behind Cardiff but stay ahead of Ospreys.
We lose the seventh placed playoff and the QF against Gloucester.
Gloucester and the three other semi finalists qualify via their league.
A Pro 14 team wins the Champions Cup.
We pox in under EPCR's rule that the place goes to the "Highest ranked non-qualified club by virtue of league position from the same league as the Champions Cup winner."
Again this is not as unlikely as it initially looks as Gloucester are in a decent position in the Premiership and Leinster are favourites for the Champions Cup and Munster and Scarlets are in the mix.

So all in all, none of the routes looks particularly confidence-inspiring, but between the lot of them, you'd have to give us a decent chance.
Personally I preferred if back in the good old days when we used to just win the league all the time ...

connachta wrote: Defeat and no BP for Castres. looks better and better...

And then Toulouse feck it up. They were looking comfortable at 14-3 and then for some reason a rugby match broke out ...

All the same, the bookies now have Pau as 5th favourites to win the title so that should make them odds on to qualify. Their trip to Clermont on Sat should be interesting. One of La Rochelle and Lyon has to lose but Castres should beat Brive at home. If they can win that then they'll be looking good with Oyonnax and Agen still to play at home.

Defeat and no BP for Castres. looks better and better...

You can add Pau's defeat of La Rochelle as a footnote to the list of good things that happened in your life today.
I expect Toulouse to beat Lyon tomorrow. Hopefully the spot of bother Paris find themselves in (two points off the bottom) will motivate them to beat Castres in the 11.30am Six Nations Hangover Recovery Game.

May will be a difficult month for the nerves of Connacht fans and players, Pau "domestic round of 8" vs Toulon,

And if that goes well, Leinster vs Clermont

destiny is not in our hands. Except winning CC QF (which is not easy). Tense TV sessions to come 1 month later if we manage to do it