The La Rochelle loss and Quins beating Bath are helpful too. No favours from Wuss - Tigers picked up a TBP, but at this point it's hard to see Leicester, Gloucester and Bath all getting ahead of Newcastle. One point between 4th and 8th in France. Pau have a couple of very winnable ones left (home to Oyonnax and Agen) but plenty to play for. Could come down to the home game against Toulon on the last day (six days before the final).

Clermont added Yato to their injury list though after their first win in 7 games. I could see Racing doing them tbh.

IMO the main danger is Clermont winning CC, as they have home QF and potential home SF, with big names coming back for them in April from injury
In Leinster we trust, again

connemara man wrote: This should be named the only road to the champions cup after today

Not at all. We are only 4 behind Blues and they are no longer guaranteed anything from the two games in SA. More than capable of beating Edinburgh in the Sportsground and potentially disinterested Leinster on the last weekend. A lot depends on Ulster's trip to the Arms Park and Connacht's to the Liberty.

This should be named the only road to the champions cup after today

Yeah, I fancy Newcastle now. Quins beating Bath tomorrow (good chance at home) and Worcester beating Leicester (you'd never know) would help.
They actually have a decent chance of a semi even. That might take a bit of focus off the Challenge Cup for them.
Big win for Pau. Toulouse away win in Bordeaux knocks them out too. Castres and Lyon have tough away trips next week so could be interesting.
New danger: Pau play La Rochelle at home next week. A win would be great for them, but does that potentially put La Rochelle (who I kinda fancy for the Champions Cup) in trouble? There are so many reasons why we need them to lose in Llanelli ...

Hell of good news today.
Newcastle away win to Gloucester means they're likely to make top6 now
And Pau incredible away win vs direct rival means they're back in the race

Pro 14 was lost. now it's massive, We've a good chance to make it through as a losing Challenge Cup semi finalist
(Pau, Edinburgh, Newcastle already qualified). Roll on Gloucester!!!!!!

We have to beat Gloucester and Edinburgh need to win away in Pau.
That's our biggest (though slim) hope IMO

MulMan wrote: looking at the top14, what is going on with Clermont, how can a team that destroys Sarries away be beaten by Oyonnax at home, I know they have injuries but that just seems unfathomable, they are now just 7 points from relegation, what would happen if the won the Champions cup and got relegated, or for that matter if Brive won the challenge cup and got relegated.

Top 14 has new set up for relegation this year. 14th goes down and is replaced by the winner of the ProD2 playoff final. 13th plays the loser of that playoff in a relegation playoff.

Have to play in T14 to play in Europe!

looking at the top14, what is going on with Clermont, how can a team that destroys Sarries away be beaten by Oyonnax at home, I know they have injuries but that just seems unfathomable, they are now just 7 points from relegation, what would happen if the won the Champions cup and got relegated, or for that matter if Brive won the challenge cup and got relegated.

A bit of a mixed bag of results at the weekend.
It seemed to start out OK with (apart from Connacht grinding out the win), our new allies Pau and Newcastle getting a few points against close rivals. Then on Sunday it went a bit sideways with Blues also picking up some Italian points and a few not great results in England and France (Leicester winning in Allianz Park and La Rochelle surrendering their home streak to Toulon).
Newcastle lie fourth but only 4 ahead of Leicester in seventh and Paddy Power have both of them along with Bath and Gloucester who separate them as 33/1 joint fourth favourites for the title with the rest a long way back so a bit of not very reliable maths gives them about a 75% chance of making the top 6. A few other bookies have them higher up the pecking order so they're looking like a decent punt to not need the spot from the Challenge Cup.
Pau are seventh just two points behind La Rochelle and just ahead of Lyon. Paddy has them 8th favourites at 60/1, but they're only a shade behind Castres and Lyon at 50 so you could call it about 30% for top 6.
So not looking fabulous for the old beat Gloucester and hope someone else does the dirty work strategy but it's still a possibility.
Pau are away to Castres and Newcastle are in Kingsholm at the weekend so a win or two there would help their causes immensely.
The win for Ospreys over Cheetahs isn't great news from the point of view of staying ahead of them but for those of us still deluding ourselves that we can win the Pro14, it was great news. A win in Bloemfontein and we're nearly in sight of third, though we would need among other things a defeat for Cheetahs at Rodney Parade and a favour from Kings on the last day (oh and then those three away wins in the playoffs).
We'll probably need that win in Swansea ...

MulMan wrote: To compound a truly horrendous weekend Cardiff beat Munster today.

And with Edinburgh beating Ulster, as it stands right now, we're headed for a playoff in Ravenhill!
They only vague bits of good news are that Newcastle and Pau won, giving a better chance that some of the Challenge Cup semi-finalists will be already qualified via their league, making qualification more likely if we can figure out a way of beating Gloucester. Bookies still have Connacht (and all the other home teams) as favourites to win the QF.
With Zebre on a bit of a high, I half expect them to beat Blues at home next weekend, though unfortunately I kinda expect Treviso to do the same to us ...

MulMan wrote: To compound a truly horrendous weekend Cardiff beat Munster today.

It’s very hard to see us finishing fourth now, or beating Ulster or Edinburgh if we did.

To compound a truly horrendous weekend Cardiff beat Munster today.

St Placide wrote:

pinky wrote: Sure if we don't make it to the top tier there's a good chance there'll be a brand new destination on the map in the Challenge Cup, with Heideberlger Ruderklub into the Continental Shield semi-finals.
Funnily enough according to their website they seem to think they are already in the final, but with both finalists qualifying for the Challenge Cup, they are only one (two-legged) win away. And sure if they don't make it, we've still never made that trip to Romania ...
hrk1872.de/2018/01/20/hrk-zieht-in-conti...l-shield-finale-ein/

Heidelberger Ruderklub is bankrolled by Hans-Peter Wild (think Capri-Sun) , the billionaire owner of Stade francais. He established the Wild Rugby Academy in Heidelberg with the long-term intention of taking Germany to the world cup..

Seems to be an unsteady relationship between WRA and the German Federation (where have we seen this before, private enterprise vs Union? )...

translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto...F&edit-text=&act=url

pinky wrote: Sure if we don't make it to the top tier there's a good chance there'll be a brand new destination on the map in the Challenge Cup, with Heideberlger Ruderklub into the Continental Shield semi-finals.
Funnily enough according to their website they seem to think they are already in the final, but with both finalists qualifying for the Challenge Cup, they are only one (two-legged) win away. And sure if they don't make it, we've still never made that trip to Romania ...
hrk1872.de/2018/01/20/hrk-zieht-in-conti...l-shield-finale-ein/

Heidelberger Ruderklub is bankrolled by Hans-Peter Wild (think Capri-Sun) , the billionaire owner of Stade francais. He established the Wild Rugby Academy in Heidelberg with the long-term intention of taking Germany to the world cup..