connemara man wrote:

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so Connacht would be better of finishing below the other qualifier

Took you all of, what, half a second, to work that out? [strike]Lonely bloke in Neuchatel[/strike] The EPCR hasn't twigged yet.

so Connacht would be better of finishing below the other qualifier

So it's away to 7th place French team and then away to 7th place English side or Cardiff, more likely

Invalid consumer key/secret in configuration

So if both Pro12 teams win through the semis the lower ranked one is at home. Pure nonsense.

Yes mistakes have been made on all levels this season, all we can do is learn from them. We now know that our season is pretty much certainly going to be decided by two playoffs so hopefully we will be focusing on being as well prepared for those games as possible. For me that would involve;

- Getting Carey back to full fitness (out of our control I know)
- Settling on our best 2nd row partnership and sorting out the lineout
- Resting key players so that they are fresh at the end of the season
- Getting Boshoff on the pitch as much as possible once he returns
- Getting Aki and Ronaldson playing together and deciding on our preferred partnership if one is missing
- Which will hopefully lead to improved attacking shape and our wingers getting the sort of space they were rampant in last year
- Ensuring players don't get isolated and turned over
- Improved defensive work at the breakdown (guessing but I would imagine individual and team turnover stats are way down this year)
- Less handling errors (improved weather should help, thought our hands were very impressive at the weekend considering the conditions)
- Being far more clinical in the opponent's 22

Our botched pre-season cost us this year. Allied to results like being unable to beat a second-string Munster at home, and losing away to the Dragons of all teams!

Decadence wrote: Only 9 points down on last year? That was some record against the remaining teams though. It was the slow start that killed us this year...

I checked that yesterday and was convinced I was counting wrong

But at that same rate of dropping about half a point a game over the final 6 games compared to the same fixtures last year (25-3=22 points would be 4 wins and a couple of bonus points) we'd finish on 61 which is unlikely to be enough for 5th place

Only 9 points down on last year? That was some record against the remaining teams though. It was the slow start that killed us this year...

pinky wrote:
It's still technically doable, but we'd need to win the rest of our games, pick up maybe 3 TBPs while hoping Scarlets only win two of their remaining 5. Big ask.

Siob wrote: Assuming. qualification through the play-offs, if Connacht finish ahead of Glasgow (possible) and whichever Italian, are we seeded as the 6th place pro12 team (tier 3), or 'wildcard' (tier 4)?

The 4th tier is made up of the sixth seeds from each league, the 7th seed from the Pro12, and the winner of the qualifiers. So however they cut up the bottom seeds, we're in the lowest tier regardless of how we qualify, unless we miraculously scrape into fifth.

Assuming qualification through the play-offs, if Connacht finish ahead of Glasgow (possible) and whichever Italian, are we seeded as the 6th place pro12 team (tier 3), or 'wildcard' (tier 4)?

- Team -	- P -	- W -	- D -	- L -	- F -	- A -	- BP -	- Pts -
Scarlets	17	12	0	5	369	303	5	53
Ulster	16	11	0	5	355	250	8	52
Connacht	16	8	0	8	299	302	7	39
Cardiff	17	8	0	9	372	387	5	37
Edinburgh	17	4	0	13	312	384	6	22
Dragons	17	4	0	13	277	442	4	20

So Connacht have pretty much kept up their end of the deal over the last four games, more or less doubling their points tally.
Unfortunately Scarlets have rather unsportingly elected to win two tricky away assignments (before remembering their manners a little too late in the RDS last night), leaving us almost out of road in the quest for automatic qualification. It's still technically doable, but we'd need to win the rest of our games, pick up maybe 3 TBPs while hoping Scarlets only win two of their remaining 5. Big ask.
On the plus side, Edinburgh and Dragons appear to be nearly out of sight, so barring an Edinburgh win in the Challenge Cup, we should be in the playoff. We should hopefully be able to stay ahead of Cardiff too, which would guarantee it.

Thanks Munster, way to end your winning streak!
OK we are not qualifying automatically and that is that.
End of season away trip here we come. Allez Pau ...

Good win for Blues away to Edinburgh. Would have been better for us if they'd lost, but at least it means Edinburgh are nearly out of sight - it's Challenge Cup or bust for them now.
Scarlets are threatening to turn the rest of the season into a mini pre-season in preparation for the playoffs ...

- Team -	- P -	- W -	- D -	- L -	- F -	- A -	- BP -	- Pts -
Scarlets	15	11	0	4	330	237	5	49
Ulster	14	9	0	5	296	226	7	43
Cardiff	15	7	0	8	341	347	5	33
Connacht	14	6	0	8	232	280	5	29
Edinburgh	15	4	0	11	286	353	4	20
Dragons	15	4	0	11	238	341	1	20

We're 24 points behind them tonight. If we get 15 points from our next three games and they get nowt at Leinster and Munster, that becomes 9 with a game in hand and Scarlets to visit the Sportsground. It'd be a ridiculous turnaround but scarcely less credible than, say, embarrassing Leinster in a Pro12 final.

sea_point wrote:
If we accept that Scarlets are our main challenge, we have fourteen pints to make up on them.

I am happy to accept this challenge