We're almost certainly going to England now. Technically we can still finish ahead of Cardiff but it would mean a TBP in Thomond Park, nothing for Blues against Dragons and making up a 57 point deficit, so we can more or less forget about that.

Obviously it'll be Kingsholm if Gloucester win the Challenge Cup.
If they don't then there are still four teams in contention.

Northampton are at home to Harlequins on the last day. If Northampton get four more league points than Quins (i.e win and deny them a LBP or get a TBP themselves), then Harlequins are definitely 7th.
If Saints win and Quins get the LBP (and Saints don't get a TBP, or they both do) then Northampton are 7th (Quins would have more games won).
If Harlequins win then seventh is between 3 teams.
- Gloucester would get it if they beat Exeter at home.
- If they don't and Newcastle win away at Bristol (with a BP if Saints get one), they would get it
- Otherwise it's Northampton

Over in France, Toulon are now safe after beating Bordeaux away. Castres are now in the barrages too I think as they are 5 ahead of Paris with a better head to head so the worst they can do is 6th.
So one barrage spot and the playoff up for grabs and in theory 6 teams are still in contention for both. Going in to the last day 11 teams can still in theory win the title.
But you would expect Racing to beat Bordeaux at home, Montpellier to beat Paris and Toulon to beat Pau and Lyon should be able to beat Grenoble on the road. That would leave Racing sixth and Lyon seventh. So Cardiff would travel to Lyon if Gloucester win the Challenge Cup.
If Lyon lose, Brive could get 7th by beating Castres at home though bonus points and head-to-head would come into it. Obviously if Paris or Pau cause an upset away from home either of them could claim 7th (or get ahead of Racing and push them down to 7th).
Toulouse are now officially gone and Bordeaux would need a miracle.

I'm looking at it from a different angle, looking at the current top to bottom in the Guinness premiership away from home we'd have no chance against Saracens, wasps or Exeter. then you've got Leicester and Bath who would probably beat us but not by much, and then we have the 4 teams vying for the 7th spot Harlequins, Northampton, Gloucester and Newcastle all of whom we have a chance at beating.

ThisYearWillBeDifferent wrote: Yes, Gloucester got a try when extra time was nearly over, we felt there was obstruction.
No Challenge Cup place last year because, I think, no playoffs due to the World Cup.

There were no playoffs because of the RWC but I think the Challenge cup winner secured a place in the Champion's cup directly for their league instead.

Yes, Gloucester got a try when extra time was nearly over, we felt there was obstruction.
No Challenge Cup place last year because, I think, no playoffs due to the World Cup.

connachta wrote: I know that, and I stick on my 90%

Gloucester played the play-off because of Challenge Cup? was the old HCup, then?
Anyway if Poite isn't there, a revenge against them is possible
Would prefer Gloucester to Northampton or Quins

No, first year of the new competition IIRC. I think I've subconciously blacked out most of the game but I remember thinking we should have won it. It went to extra time.

connachta wrote: I know that, and I stick on my 90%

Gloucester played the play-off because of Challenge Cup? was the old HCup rule, then?
Anyway if Poite isn't there, a revenge against them is possible
Would prefer Gloucester to Northampton or Quins

I know that, and I stick on my 90%

Gloucester played the play-off because of Challenge Cup? was the old HCup, then?
Anyway if Poite isn't there, a revenge against them is possible
Would prefer Gloucester to Northampton or Quins

connachta wrote: Completely forgot about challengecup though, it didn't matter until this year

Of course it did. Gloucester beat Connacht at Kingsholm in a playoff two seasons ago. A game they qualified for by winning the Challenge Cup ...
And last season Bordeaux qualified as a result of Montpellier winning it.

Northampton are the most likely team to finish sixth, but it's far from certain. They are unlikely to win at Sandy Park tomorrow. If they fail to secure a LBP there then Quins will only need a LBP against them on the last day to qualify.
If Saints manage to lose both their remaining games, Gloucester or Newcastle could get to 7th, though that is a longshot at this stage.

Northampton will be 6th yes, 90% sure, maybe more.
Completely forgot about challengecup though, it didn't matter until this year... 50/50 there, if not a slight advantage for Gloucester

And completely ruling out Quins getting a losing bonus at the Gardens to finish 6th?
Still lots to play for.

You're making Stade >90% to beat Gloucester in the Challenge Cup?

Cardiff BP, Quins win, Definitely a Harlequins / Connacht play-off, as I looked carefully to the schedules for all teams involved.
90% likely

If Newcastle do end up getting to the playoffs, their semi will take place on the rugby league Magic Weekend, where every team in the league play in St James' Park over two days.
Accommodation not to be had for love nor money on Saturday night.
You would assume in that case they would play the game on Friday.

Nine matches? We won't have time to be bored. Seriously though, Sky+ the Paris derby, could be a classic for all the wrong reasons.

A bit of a rundown on the games involving potential playoffs opponents over the weekend:
www.connachtclan.com/news/38-general-new...enders-a-vague-guide
Just in case anyone is bored and fancies watching nine rugby matches or so ...

Other question I suppose is do we want to play Newcastle?
On paper, they sound like a good option. On plastic maybe not so much.
Would definitely prefer them to Quins or Northampton. The memory of one hammering in Kingston Park doesn't haunt me as much as the three one score defeats in Kingsholm.