Yeah, lot of things need to go their way, but bookies have Wasps favourites in the Stoop (and Worcester, Exeter and Bath will be favourites too), so by Sunday the table could look something like:

6 - Northampton 48
7 - Harlequins 47
8 - Gloucester 46
9 - Newcastle 45

(OK I've been generous to them with bonus points - Quins would probably manage a LBP and five for Falcons is far from guaranteed)
At that rate Gloucester could beat Exeter on the last day and still end up behind Newcastle on games won, so a TBP at Five Point Gate would see them 7th.

pinky wrote:

salmson wrote: a win for either N/hampton or Quins when they play each other on the last day puts one of them more than 10 points clear of them.

Yes, one of them. Assuming the losing team in that game has also lost the previous game, they could be below Newcastle.

You're right (again). For Newcastle to get to the playoffs they just need either of Quins or N/hampton to lose their last two matches of the season, and Gloucester to lose their last three, while they won both, and with a bonus point or two if Northampton fall behind Quins.

salmson wrote: a win for either N/hampton or Quins when they play each other on the last day puts one of them more than 10 points clear of them.

Yes, one of them. Assuming the losing team in that game has also lost the previous game, they could be below Newcastle.

pinky wrote: I hadn't considered it before as they're a good way behind but now I look at the table aren't Newcastle still just about in the mix as well?

Newcastle are out of it. Even assuming Gloucs go to pot and lose both games and the Challenge Cup final, a win for either N/hampton or Quins when they play each other on the last day puts one of them more than 10 points clear of them. If both teams lose their second last game and draw when they play each other, then Newcastle need 9 match points and still have a points difference of over 150 to make up on Quins.

I hadn't considered it before as they're a good way behind but now I look at the table aren't Newcastle still just about in the mix as well?
They're 7 points behind seventh place but they have Worcester and Bristol to come so it's not entirely inconceivable they might get 10 points. Gloucester could easily lose their last two and, with Quins and Saints playing each other, one or other of them could lose twice too.
If Falcons get the TBP on Friday night and Quins lose at home to Wasps (who could do with a win to avoid a showdown with Saracens for a home semi on the last day), they'll be in the hunt.

Yeah, I think I might have just read that press release wrong ...
With those fixture times confirmed, we might even get an early announcement of the playoff fixtures from EPCR I suppose (though maybe that's too much to expect).

The 42 reporting that Sky will cover both Pro12 semis. TG4 will also cover the Leinster match on Friday night. Other broadcasters to be announced once the teams are confirmed.

www.the42.ie/leinster-pro12-semi-final-2017-3355741-Apr2017/

Actually Premiership semis are confirmed as well: Saturday 1445 and 1730 (as salmson reckoned they would be).
www.premiershiprugby.com/matchcentre/fixtures/fixtures.php
So the playoff is probably odds-on to be on Sunday then.
That said, since they haven't avoided clashes between the Pro12 and Premiership semis (they have the last few seasons, though maybe just by coincidence), maybe they won't bother when it comes to the playoff either.
You can be certain the English playoff won't clash with the Premiership games. So most likely Sunday, with a chance of Friday night or Saturday night.

[strike]EDIT: Also the Pro12 press release says the Saturday game is on Sky but doesn't confirm if the Friday one is. If it's not on Sky then fixture clashes will probably be even less of a consideration.[/strike]

I would assume they would try to avoid playoffs clashing with the semis from the relevant leagues.
But with 8 games across all the competitions over the weekend and various broadcasters having their say, who knows what might end up happening.

wp_rathead wrote:
Would it be too dangerous to assume that the Playoff games won't clash?

Yes. BT Sport might fancy limiting Sky's viewer numbers by putting a game with an English team up against one or other of the Pro12 semis, plus if it's Quins the World 7s Series is on in Twickenham that w/e which could complicate scheduling also.

Pro12 semi finals:
Friday 19th May 7:45pm
Saturday 20th May 6:15pm

Would it be too dangerous to assume that the Playoff games won't clash?

pinky wrote: Are you not a small bit off there salmson or am I counting wrong?

salmson wrote: Northampton hosting Quins on the final day should see them home

In that case they would hold their current position and qualify automatically.
It's the middle of the three teams that would be in the playoff if Gloucester don't win the Challenge Cup, which by your analysis would most likely be Quins.

Right you are, so N/hampton are our least likely opponent!

Unless I'm mistaken Stade have been pretty abysmal away from home this season. I'd fancy Gloucester to take them in Edinburgh.

Stade through to play Gloucester, came back from the dead with a try and dropped goal, George Ford missed a penalty to level it.

Are you not a small bit off there salmson or am I counting wrong?

salmson wrote: Northampton hosting Quins on the final day should see them home

In that case they would hold their current position and qualify automatically.
It's the middle of the three teams that would be in the playoff if Gloucester don't win the Challenge Cup, which by your analysis would most likely be Quins.

Bazzo wrote: Honestly it's too tight to tell between Northampton, Quins and Gloucester.

salmson wrote:
As it stands Gloucs have a 50% chance of winning the Challenge Cup and making the Premiership standings irrelevant, so they're hot favourites. If they fail to win the cup they haven't a rashers in the league, they'd need to beat Bath away *and* Exeter at home, and hope both Northampton and Quins lose in round 21, as Northampton host Quins on the final day.

Northampton hosting Quins on the final day should see them home (Quins away record is as shocking as their home one is good), but Quins could go into that game ahead if Quins beat Wasps at home in round 21 and Northampton lose away to Exeter.

Overall I'd say the probabilities are about 50% Gloucs, 33% N/hampton, 17% Quins.

Or you could assign exact values to the odds :lol: