Overall, I think a helpful result for us actually. Dragons very unlikely to catch up with us unless they hit a massive run and it simply stops Leinster from going top tonight. Roll on tomorrow...

We still have a big lead over Dragons. If they are troubling us we will have collapsed completely.

The only downside of the Dragons win was it builds their confidence at home. When they get the bit between their teeth Dragons are tough opponents.

Their pitch is in poor shape. We'll have to tailor our tactics for that game. They do have Ulster next week while we have a rare weekend off.

goconn wrote: A good or bad result for us tonight in Rodney Parade ? Leinster losing and denied any Bonus Point.

How would that be bad for us ? :huh:

A good or bad result for us tonight in Rodney Parade ? Leinster losing and denied any Bonus Point.

Wouldn't mind a 6N period like 2 seasons ago, it basically rescued the year for them.

Without actually going back to check the exact timing of the Six Nations on previous seasons I think this is about right:





Obviously not preparing like with like, as it doesn't take account of who we played.

You can see the effect of the injury crisis, coupled with the tough run in last season.

I'd love to have points awarded per fixture for every team over the past few seasons in excel. It's too much work to figure out each fixture though.

Don't suppose there's an easier way?

[/geek]

Patchy wrote: If the remaining games all go exactly as they did last year (unlikely, but still as likely as any other set of results), this is how the final table would look.
Glasgow 69
Ospreys 69
Leinster 69
Munster 66
Ulster 66
Connacht 66
Scarlets 63
Edinburgh 57
Dragons 38
Cardiff 34
Zebre 25
Treviso 14

Meaning that if we improve slightly (or get a bit of luck) we could finish top of the table. Likewise if we lose form slightly (or get a bit of bad luck) we could finish outside the top 6.
Fine margins

Last season (and during the WC) Ospreys really struggled during the international windows, Leinster and Glasgow to a lesser extent. Hairsprays have a horrible fixture list during the 6N so hopefully they'll be out of it by the time it's over.

If the remaining games all go exactly as they did last year (unlikely, but still as likely as any other set of results), this is how the final table would look.
Glasgow 69
Ospreys 69
Leinster 69
Munster 66
Ulster 66
Connacht 66
Scarlets 63
Edinburgh 57
Dragons 38
Cardiff 34
Zebre 25
Treviso 14

Meaning that if we improve slightly (or get a bit of luck) we could finish top of the table. Likewise if we lose form slightly (or get a bit of bad luck) we could finish outside the top 6.
Fine margins

Here's the points difference compared to last year for all teams. Again, we're top of the pile!
Connacht 16
Zebre 10
Edinburgh 9
Leinster 7
Scarlets 6
Cardiff -1
Ulster -3
Dragons -4
Treviso -5
Ospreys -5
Glasgow -6
Munster -9

My route plan isn't modified, I'm consistent with what I said in October. I expected nothing from ChallengeCup, and nothing from away games to Leinster Cardiff and Scarlets. I've got a surplus of 2 BP. Ulster game was 3 points less than I hoped

I've always known December and January would be a period of defeats. I'm very happy that the team didn't collapse at all.
But now, it's clear we have to win every game we should win. No Ulster scenario again. 5 to 6 wins out of 10 is the target. Scarlets is a "win or die" game, and always have been such in my mind.
That's why I said Heenan, Henshaw, White and "Buckley with more rugby under the belt" make me pretty confident to complete a very decent squad, and get those 5-6 victories

Week 12

That green line has levelled out far too much for my liking but still looks positive. Disappointing as yesterday was it makes you feel a bit better to see us at +16 compared to last year. Should be more I know but still. Lots of work to do and we won one or two or the remaining games last year which we mightn;t this year but there are games likes Ospreys too where hopefully we can improve on last year's total. It shows that in or around 58-60 is still a very realistic target.

Week 11 Update