Lost post there so continue on

BT/ PRL want to destroy the Heineken cup and this is a way if they can convince the RFU and championship clubs with shares in PRL to allow them. It will require a court case but that in itself will damage the Heineken cup and PRO12. In fact IMO that's all that the PRL/BT really need to achieve their goal . Something that makes the French think again about their commitment to the Heineken cup. This has always been about weakening the Irish provinces position in the Heineken cup from prls perspective as much as it has been about money. They think we control or have undue influence on the competition and ERC. The French clubs agree.

I don't think that the RFU will endorse the regions joining the A viva or that the PRL will be able to convince the weaker teams to allow them in when there is nothing in it for them. Teams like Leeds, Bristol Newcastle, Worcester, London Irish and London welsh have too much to lose IMO.

What the outcome will be is too difficult to call. If I had to I would punt that a limited number of central contracts will be accepted by the regions on top of the 6.6m direct funding on offer. The number of these will gradually increase over time and WRU will win the cold war.

The war between BT and SKY is about broadband not sport. Its being fought on the sports channels because BT recognise the where the telecom market has moved and the threat that sky represent to them in BTs core business area. As a result they have taken the decision to take sky on in their core business area to block their inroads into the broadband market. BT already have the landlines and broadband. Sky are offering bundles( TV, BB and sport/TV) at good rates to boost their market share and it has been working. BT out bid them on soccer, premier league(part of) and champions league, and rugby. They offer the sport for free as part of the bundle so its better value while upping the quality of content sports wise. They are gambling on winning this war. It all depends on how patient their shareholders are.

Salmon covers most of the welsh regions issues well. A couple of things though. The WRU don't want control of the regions in their current format. They want to control them but do not want to be in control at this time. The regions combined debt ATM is just under 20m and WRU cannot afford to take that on. If they would take it on the benefactors would give it to them no question . The WRU want to control the players and eventually take over the regions. Giving them more money unconditionally doesn't help them achieve those goals.
The benefactors of the regions are very aware of their goals and consider it insulting and are furious that wru have failed to recognihse what they did for them when wru was on its knees and they helped them out by funding the regions and getting them up and running. This is where the anger and bitterness stems from. Of course the benefactors didn't help themselves by aligning the regions too closely to the Llanelli, Swansea, Cardiff and Newport clubs thus alienating themselves from the rest of the valleys and clubs. Scarlets for instance recognised this mistake a few years ago and dropped Llanelli from their name. I think the ospreys made a similar move.

The war is near an end. The regions are broke and only have one card left to play. They hold the registrations of 12+ of the elite welsh squad. More importantly they most likely hold the registrations of the academy players which are the future international stars. They will move to Aviva if they can, not because they want to but because they have to if they are to have any chance of surviving independently. This is why they mention TV money. They believe that if they can attract 3.2 m in TV money for the rabo they are a marketable commodity. BT have 21m a year put aside for 3 years of European rugby. RRW want it. BT / PRL want to destroy the

I agree with Rossie btw, the ramifications of these talks are huge, the future of the rabo depend on this. If the welsh leave the rabo I would fear for its future and the knock on for Irish ,scottish and italian rugby would be devastating

Im just very wary of this pot of gold that the PRL say is waiting out there for all who follow them.

BT are not stupid, rugby is a minority sport in the UK and way behind soccer. The figures being bandied about are huge and dont stack up for me.

While a welsh/eng lge would be pretty, I dont think that the extra subscriptions to watch it would be economically compatable with the sums being talked about.there is also the problem that the BT contract was supposed to leave the PRL in a financially worse position if they faied to deliver the european competition.

It smacks of the PRL using the welsh clubs to bloody the rabos nose, I would bet that the PRL will dump the welsh in a heart beat if it suits them down the road.

They talk of Cardiff V Leicester games but theres no guarantee that cardiff would survive in the prem lge. cardiff V ealing trailfinders doesnt set the world alight.

Thanks for both replies Salmson, really helpful.

Whatever about the current situation, you would think for the good of the game that the WRU would drive a North Wales region, as the current regions are really town/city based in South Wales.

I'd love the idea of taking the ferry over to Colwyn Bay...easier than going to Musgrave Park

columoc wrote: What I don' t get is the funding issue in Wales vs. Ireland. I don't understand the background, how can Ireland do what it has done and Wales not ?

(The island of) Ireland's population is more than twice that of Wales and the average crowd at a Pro12/HEC rugby game is 40% greater, even allowing for Connacht pulling down the average.

Rugby is the only top-level professional sport in Ireland. Wales has two Premiership football clubs.

The Welsh regions are somewhat artificial constructs, unlike the preexisting and geographically meaningful provincial branches model the IRFU (luckily!) had to hand.

Albeit we're still climbing out of a recession, but there's also more money in Ireland, and a richer demographic attend the games.

The IRFU has full ownership and control, and pumps in about 23 million a year to the 4 teams. The WRU owns none of the regions outright, has a controlling interest only in Dragons, and invests about 25% less in them.

And finally: I can't remember an Irish squad of the last 10 years with more than 3 foreign based players.

Even the Guardian, the unquestioning unthinking mouthpiece for PRL, describes this as a threat, and says it is not a possibility at present.

The root of the problem is that the regions were only (somewhat) competitive a few years ago (multiple leagues for Ospreys, a penalty shootout from the HEC final and an Amlin win for Cardiff) only because they were overspending their budgets with the shareholders backing the losses.

Where we are now is the shareholders are refusing to do so and want more money/backing from the WRU.

The regions have been offered the status quo money-wise; they're refusing this as accepting this effectively conspires in the gradual decline of the regions.

The WRU will offer more but only on the basis of taking a 50% share in the regions (they already own 50% of Dragons, who not so co-incidentally have strengthened players/coaches-wise in the last year) or alternately through WRU centrally contracting players. The shareholders see either as the not-so-thin end of the wedge towards complete union control, which could see their losses (i.e. director loans etc.) realised. The shareholders have also invested 10 years time and money in the regions and don't think the WRU could organise a piss-up etc.

So the 4 possible outcomes are:

RRW concede defeat and take what they're offered from the WRU (status quo).
WRU concede defeat and increase funding without any changes to the ownership of the regions.
RRW concede control and take large increases in funding from the WRU in return for WRU part-owning the regions.
A compromise involving central contracts (which moves part of the funding burden to the WRU without impacting current regional funding or ownership) is reached.

The almost impossible outcome is Ospreys, Scarlets, and Cardiff moving to a 16 team PRL. I don't see WRU/RFU/IRB approval as a problem, the WRU would almost be glad to be shot of the regions. But the hurdles to this are still huge:

(1) The Welsh regions would have an instant funding hole of about 4 million sterling. Realistically PRL would have to fund each to the tune of at least 5 million sterling each per annum to make it worthwhile to jump ship. This money could only come from BT. We're talking an increase of 45 million over the remaining duration of their contract.

(2) Any such deal would have to get past the other teams in the PRL. I don't see BT handing all 16 teams 5 million a year each, and you've have to ask what the likes of Sale or Exeter would make of the Welsh teams being favoured in this way.

(3) Any such deal would only ensure the regions survival for 3 years - shorter even that the alternative offered by the WRU. And what if they got relegated?

(4) If the PRL wants to expand to 16 teams there are 3 teams in the Championship - Bristol, Leeds, and London Welsh - with stadia, backing, and ambition to be in the Premiership. As London Welsh proved last year, when messed with these guys get litigious. PRL have already been done once for anti-competitive behaviour, and the precedent put forward for Welsh teams in the PRL (Newport Town FC's refusal to play in Welsh competition) is a nonce argument referring to a football team that *always* played in England.

(5) The regions would lose their feeder clubs in Wales who would be assigned to the new Welsh regions. The regions would need to carry larger squads and could not "road test" players from the Welsh leagues prior to signing them to professional contracts.


So, not going to happen. If it did somehow happen, the 3 new regions would be East Valleys based at Sardis Road in Pontypridd (13 or 14 miiles up the road form Cardiff), West Valleys based at The Gnoll in Neath (7 or 8 miles from Swansea), and North Wales based out of the existing Colwyn Bay development centre, in addition to the Dragons.

According to the Telegraph, he wanted to avoid any conflict of interest as Welsh regions are discussing joining an enlarged Premiership.

Mind you, he submitted his resignation last week, maybe before the ultimatum. This suggests that at least 3 Regions would be considering joining a bigger premiership, which of course means less money for other English clubs, not sure how they would see that.

There are so many permutations. This is high stakes stuff. Will WRU call their bluff? If they do, and they have contractual obligations to Pro 12, it would mean new regions. How will the others stay and will IRB allow it?

What I don' t get is the funding issue in Wales vs. Ireland. Populations are similar, and in rugby terms you would think there would be more interest in Wales. Plus they have council funding for stadia. I don't understand the background, how can Ireland do what it has done and Wales not ?

rossie wrote: I can't believe this isn't higher on peoples priorities/ interest here but anyway here is latest and its significant.

Stuart Gallacher CEO of RRW today resigned his seats on the boards of the Pro12 and ERC.

I agree, but it's Christmas :silly:

What do you think the significance of this is?

Twitter, BBC sport, sky sports, other forums. Its the main topic of conversation pretty much everywhere else.

Where do you access the info Rossie

I can't believe this isn't higher on peoples priorities/ interest here but anyway here is latest and its significant.

Stuart Gallacher CEO of RRW today resigned his seats on the boards of the Pro12 and ERC.

RRW have finally shown their hand. They are after a greater share of the TV money generated by erc and pro12. They want a minimum third from each. They use the pro 12 TV money as an example. Apparently BBC Wales and s4c contribute 3.2m to Irish TV combined contribution of 910k. BBC alba contribute 150k but its divided 3 ways.

Therefore they want WRU to bat for them to get them their fair share.

You're right clanman, the Welsh player exodus is about money not about the competition. There will still be plenty of English and French clubs with deeper pockets than the Welsh teams. A move to the Aviva might prop them up financially at first but 1 or 2 of them will struggle long term. They're making too much of these cross border rivalries. One thing that would save them from total disaster is an expanded Aviva would do away with relegation I imagine. They would certainly struggle on the field the first couple of seasons as they try to rebuild from being shorn of their star players with foreigners and young prospects.

not sure i understand where the fans of the 4 regional clubs are coming from, on the one hand they want the WRU to step in and halt the drain of players away from Welsh rugby and on the other hand they want their teams to join the Aviva. If they end up in the Aviva you can be sure the english clubs will take even more welsh players when the English clubs are competing agianst them week in week out

Sorry if I wasn't clear.
Scarlets are rumoured to have jumped ship on RRW and are now prepared to sign up with WRU. Blues rumoured to be of similar mindset.
Scarlets don't own stadium. Local council do. Same applies to ospreys stadium.