That could be a very interesting out for the PRL.

Depends on how the contract is worded.

The competition will be driven by the existing organisation (currently named ERC)
Discussions over governance will be pursued in order to optimise the internal functioning of the existing organization (currently named ERC).

This phrase could be key. By renaming the organization it leaves the door open for the English to resume talks as they have repeatedly said they won't participate in an ERC-run competition. It would be a shame if they don't participate next year but I have no sympathy for them after the way they've conducted themselves.

rossie wrote: The agreement this week on a 20 team competition without the English effectively means that 10 pro12 teams will compete if it goes ahead. Therefore we have to reform the league on our own which won't be easy.

Agree with your point, but the guardian was reporting that the HC would be basically be the 12 Pro12 teams, 6 French teams and 2 others to make up the 20. Not the most unbiased of sources, granted. And I agree that regardless of the numbers, there'll be no Pro12 reform if the english aren't in the HC.

Unfortunately the qualification system agreed last month won't come into effect unless the English clubs play which is very unlikely .
The agreement this week on a 20 team competition without the English effectively means that 10 pro12 teams will compete if it goes ahead. Therefore we have to reform the league on our own which won't be easy.

I think reform of the Pro 12 is long overdue. The English moves pushed things along but for so many years now there has been no significant Heineken Cup qualification process in place. Look at Edinburgh a couple of years back making the semi-final of the Heineken. That came about partially because they ignored the league for 75%+ of their games and it didn't matter a jot to them as they were guaranteed HC qualification again. There has been far too many meaningless league games for years now and while everyone wants to be in the Heineken Cup, the reality must be faced that without the Pro 12 the provinces and the others can't survive. We have got in 3 times through a backdoor root. Aironi and Zebre were miles adrift at the bottom and got back in.

Regardless of how this plays itself out (and I think eventually it'll be tentatively resolved) the Pro 12 needs to become more meaningful.

Colmoc- regarding the TV deal the only figures available are provided courtesy of the row between RRW and WRU. Wru claimed that they invested 10m directly into the regions the season before last. This claim infuriated the regions who claimed that this was TV money which was theirs by right and not a handout from wru. Of course the wru and not rrw are the shareholders in pro12 and hec so money is paid to them.
The figures for He payments are available if someone has time to look but think welsh get around 7m. That leaves 3m. Don'tknow how accurate that would be for pro12 TV but there are 7 TV stations involved. That 10m also probably involves an academy/ development grant also.

The problem is if they jump ship to the Aviva then the pro12 is dead in the water. Its the intetpros and Glasgow effectively. It also means that the Heineken cup is dead as there is no selling that to anyone without the English and welsh participation. We are then at the mercy of the English or the French privately owned clubs that we have fought so vigorously for the last few months.
For the Irish provinces especially Connacht and the future of the pro12 this all hinges on the welsh regions as much as the French clubs. That's why I say now is the time to reform the pro12 and make it a better more marketable product.

Exact figures for the TV deal are not available.

For the BT/England deal, leaks (not denied by the Premiership clubs) indicate that the clubs got a large front-loaded sum this season, but that from next season the money from BT is dependent on the Rugby Champions Cup; for less then 4 nations competing in the RCC only travel expenses will be paid.
It seems likely they'll be getting less than they were under the Sky/Sky+ESPN HEC/Premiership deals they left.

Sky's say they've paid "more than 50%" than the last Rabo TV deal. Of course 150% of f*ck all is still not very much, but the deal also allows other broadcasters pay for matches Sky don't want, so if some come on board it could be a nice earner for the league.

As for Welsh rugby not being a hit attendance wise, it's hard to know. Cardiff, Ospreys and Scarlets for the last few seasons have average in the 8000 - 9000 range. This compares favourably with Ulster (though I expect with success and the new stadium Ulster will stretch away now, they're over 12K averaged across their 5 home games so far this season), if not with Leinster (20K+) and Munster (16K-ish). Of course we need to remember that Leinster's population (2.5 million) is broadly comparable to Wales in its entirety (3 million).

The 2 teams with the worst attendances this year are the 2 closest to their old club roots - Cardiff and Newport. I don't see how going back to a dozen teams none of which are any good would help Welsh rugby, also I think competition with football is what they really need to worry about.

My understanding is that as a product the Welsh regions have not been a huge hit with the public, except for maybe, Cardiff and that original club loyalties remain. I would expect that they will try and go where the most money is.

Does anyone understand the status of BT deal if the HEC goes ahead without English clubs. How much does the SKY deal earn for Rabo? Who will now sponsor Rabo?

If Welsh regions joined Premiership, could the remainder apply to expand French league to a Euro league format? Connacht in Ligue 2?

There is huge speculation ATM about what the welsh regions will do next. One thing for certain is that they are not happy with the pro12. I don't know if this worthy of a thread of its own but o think now is the time to reform the pro12 and make it a better product.

My idea borrows from a lot of existing league formats such as super 15 and takes the best elements of successful leagues and marries them with the needs of the pro12 unions and regions. The unions require the best players fit for the AIs, 6ns and summer tours. The regions / league needs them playing regularly in its competition.
My idea is as follows.
1. Split the league into 2 pools/ leagues of 6 teams each based on the league finish the previous season.
If it were in playing this season pool 1 would be ulster, Leinster, Glasgow, Scarlets, ospreys and Munster. Pool 2 would comprise of Treviso, Connacht, Cardiff, dragons, Edinburgh and zebre.
Each team would play the teams in their pool home and away(10 games) and teams in opposite pool home or away(6 games).
2. Top 4 in pool 1 would play off in semis as per current system. Top 5 would qualify for hec as per new qualification system. Bottom team would be relegated to pool 2. Top two in pool 2 would play off for pool win. Winner promoted and qualifiy for Heineken cup. Top Italian team( if not winner of pool 2) qualify for Heineken also. If Italian team win pool 2 then relegated team from pool 1 retains Heineken cup status.
It frees up 6 weekends so teams can be at their best when playing teams from own pool. Games against other pool can be played during window when necessary.
The provincial championship would also be reintroduced on a home and away basis to bring games back up to 22 for revenue purposes.

That's what the welsh regions really want. They see that as the answer to all their problems. It would put them in a much stronger position to deal with the wru also who have been bullying them in recent times . There is also permission of sorts in place through their participation in the LV cup. The wru are contracted to field teams in the pro12 for 2 more seasons but I'm not sure if the regions are contracted.

From a private business perspective it would be a much easier product to sell to the welsh public. There are existing rivalries there with bath, Gloucester etc and the strength of the teams on a weekly basis are stronger than currently fielded in the pro12.

I think that what was announced last night may only be the beginning of the end.

You're right, that'd be mad. I assume the IRB would have to sanction? You'd assume that if they did that the WRU would refuse to send any cash (or reduced cash) the regions way. You never know, they might be able to do more with a slice of premiership money than foregoing Pro12 and HC money? Bigger risk for welsh regions, I'd imagine.

Wasps are owned by an Irish man AFAIK. While he is wealthy he doesn't have the kind of money that wray or Craig have behond them. He would fall into the welsh regions benefactor category so wasps will have to wash its own face financially. They, London Irish, sale and Newcastle are vulnerable. So are the ospreys, Scarlets and blues.

The prl have only one card left to play. That's to offer the welsh regions 4 places in an expanded Aviva to replace Europe. That would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Couple points on this:

(1) The Welsh teams can't leave if the HEC exists in any form next year, as, unlike the French and English teams, they did not give a notice period as required. The directors of the regional teams have in the past plugged financial holes - their ceasing to do same is one of the reasons Welsh players are heading to France - and they're afraid that if the regions go bust or are taken over by the WRU directly they'll never see that money again. In fairness to these guys they're not Charles Wray types who could take a massive hit. So the Welsh thing is just horse-trading and accountancy.

(2) The only English club making huge losses is Saracens. In the last set of published figures for the premiership (2 seasons past) 4 teams made small profits, 7 teams lost varying sums from trivial amounts up to 1.6 million. Saracens lost 5.6 million. This does not include the multi-million layout on the new stadium. With the next biggest loss makers, Bath and Wasps, supported by mega-rich backers (as are Saracens) there's no immediate threat of an English team going bust unless the Sarries owners decide to stop throwing good money after bad.

salmson wrote: There now follows a party political broadcast on behalf of BT Sport.

www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/nov/21/en...ns-save-heineken-cup

PMSL....

Read it. Shocking journalism really, but no surprises there.

I expect PRL will struggle to stay united, some of the Premiership clubs must be getting very nervous now, especially the likes of London Irish, Wasps, Sale. They could easily disappear without Euro money.

Its not over yet, the new issue to be resolved is not the French clubs, they are divided and will probably row in, but the Welsh Regions are on a collison course with WRU. Even Gareth Edwrads who is on the Board of Cardiff Blues is getting nervous. www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/25043544 I tell you Pontypridd, Newport etc in Pro 12 next year! ;)

There now follows a party political broadcast on behalf of BT Sport.

www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/nov/21/en...ns-save-heineken-cup

PMSL....