Oh I'm after confusing myself terribly now.
The more I think of it, the more I reckon the above is a better scenario.
Is it preferable to have a minimum target of denying your opponent a try bonus when they have the minimum target of scoring a try bonus, or to have a minimum target of a losing bonus when you opponent has nothing to play for at all? The latter seems easier. Answers on a post card. And hurry up, I might need to get a Montpellier shirt at short notice ...
Save me salmson, you're my only hope.

Here's another scenario I just dreamed up.
Let's just say Pool 2 goes to plan with Connacht getting the TBP and Toulouse getting 0.
But the results in the other pools go against us (Montpellier beat Leinster and Northampton, Glasgow beat Munster and Leicester, Ulster get a TBP in Sandy Park and follow it up with another one at home to Bordeaux).
In that case the points target to qualify in second place would be 19 instead of 18, meaning Connacht would need at least a LBP in Toulouse.
But crucially Toulouse, with 13 points would be out (barring a miracle in Parma) and would be aware of this the night before the game, so getting that LBP might be a whole lot easier.
Probably unlikely but it's a bit of a silver lining to have if the results in other pools start to go awry ...

Thanks for doing this, much needed. Nice to have a summery of who to shout for too. Roll on the weekend

I would take him all day long ahead of Francis and O Connor

thornley annoys me with his journalistic inaccuracies, surely as a rugby pundit the detail is all important, I just think he's lazy

Gerry gets it nearly right ....

Pool Two

At the very least injury-ravaged Connacht need a five-point haul at home to Zebre to remain in the hunt for qualification. Eh, no we don't Gerry, though it would help a lot. A Wasps win, while denying Toulouse a bonus point, would be their preferable outcome from Coventry later the same day.

Then, a bonus point defeat in Toulouse – when helped by being the last pool to complete its games – on Sunday week would ensure second place and, in all probability, secure a first ever quarter-final.True, but we wouldn't need to get a bonus point, just ensure Toulouse don't get one

www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/european-...-provinces-1.2932252

Excellent summary indeed Pinky. Thank you.

Fair play Pinky - excellent summary.

Great work Pinky . Zebre were very poor against Leinster. They looked like a u20 side .
Points on the board early followed by the bonus. Take off a few lads for the following week.

Vaguely interesting side-note. The EPCR rules for separating teams that are tied on league points basically come from the Top14 rules:
epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/rules.php
www.lnr.fr/rugby-top-14/classement-rugby...championship-rules-3

The Pro12 and Premiership both use games won as the first deciding factor for breaking ties (instead of head-to-head results):
www.pro12rugby.com/competition-rules/
www.premiershiprugby.com/faqs/

Under those rules Connacht would be in a much more advantageous position and could potentially qualify this weekend.
One wonders what intriguing negotiations must have gone on in Neuchatel to reach that compromise. Perhaps it was a trade off with the French in exchange for them agreeing not to insist on their novel bonus point system that encourages teams to accept defeat. Though I suspect a dartboard may have played a significant role.
Anyway unfortunately I don't have enough material for a good conspiracy theory here, we just got unlucky ...

I put together a brief summary of most of the various qualification scenarios, etc., with a bit about what's going on in the other pools.
www.connachtclan.com/news/38-general-new...cation-a-vague-guide
Anything ye reckon I've got wrong, discuss ...