salmson wrote: Just a clarification on the above. Connacht can't be put in Pot 3 because they are Connacht. The only way Connacht can be in Pot 3 is if they are 4th seed. For this to happen both Connacht and Leinster would have to lose their semis, and even then there's a one third chance we'd be drawn in Pot 2 anyway.

If there were two Irish losing semifinalists, and an Irish Losing finalist, all three could conceivably end up in tier 2, with two being drawn randomly into the "Runner up 3" and "Other losing SF 1" spots.

But because of the necessity to avoid pro 12 teams from the same country ending up in the same groups, and looking at the messing that went on last year to achieve this, they might decide to forego one (or both) of the random steps, so that there must be two (or three) Irish teams in tier two.

If they were to forego only one of these random elements I am conditioned to expect that Connacht would be the ones losing out. (i.e. Losing finalist Ulster placed into tier 2, with losing semifinalist Connacht being randomly drawn into tier 3)

This hypothesising is utterly pointless and great fun.

The only implication of that last rule:

Pro12 teams from the same country may not be drawn together.

is that when it comes to the last pot, Munster will only have two pools they can be drawn in as the other 3 will already have an Irish team.
It slightly increases our chances of another trip to Parma from 1/5 to 1/4

Just a clarification on the above. Connacht can't be put in Pot 3 because they are Connacht. The only way Connacht can be in Pot 3 is if they are 4th seed. For this to happen both Connacht and Leinster would have to lose their semis, and even then there's a one third chance we'd be drawn in Pot 2 anyway.

i.imgur.com/dPnNPiV.gif

So, with the Pro 12 and AP qualifiers decided, and with three rounds to go in the Top 14 the teams in the qualification positions are as follows (* denotes not yet qualified):

Leinster
Connacht
Glasgow
Ulster
Scarlets
Munster
Zebre

Saracens
Exeter
Wasps
Leicester
Northampton
Sale

Clermont
Montpellier
Toulon*
Racing*
Toulouse*
Bordeaux*

Challenge Cup Qualifier: Harlequins or a seventh French Team



So, if the same system is used as last season (which of course is not at all a safe assumption), I think the a few seedings are already confirmed as follows:

Tier 1	Tier 2	Tier 3	Tier 4
Winner Pro 12	Runner Up 3	Scarlets	Munster
Winner AP	Best Losing SF 1	Northampton	Sale
Winner T14	Best Losing SF 2	Other Losing SF 2	Zebre
Runner Up 1	Best Losing SF 3	Other Losing SF 3	CC Qualifier
Runner Up 2	Other Losing SF 1**	5th place Top 14	6th place T14

**This team must be from the same league as the losing finalist who is drawn as Runner Up 3 (I think)


The rules on nationality last year were:

Each of the five pools must have at least one team from the three leagues. To ease the complication slightly, the organisers have already decided that fourth seeds Wasps, Oyonnax and Bordeaux Begles will feature in a pool with higher seeds from their own league. No pool will contain more than two teams from one league

Pro12 teams from the same country may not be drawn together.

That last bit is interesting with three Irish teams in the Top 4 of the Pro 12. If they're to apply that rule this year (because who wants to see Connacht and Leinster in the same pool?) there are circumstances where it might slightly favour the Irish teams (cue much wailing and gnashing of teeth in the Welsh valleys).

I could be wrong, but if there were two Irish finalists, they might decide to make both automatic top seeds.

If there were two Irish losing semifinalists, and an Irish winner, they might decide to make both automatic second seeds.

If there were two Irish losing semifinalists, and an Irish Losing finalist, they could make all three second seeds; or maybe Ulster and Leinster could go into pot 2 and Connacht go into pot three....because, y'know, it's Connacht.

Confused? You will be.

Anyway, none of this really matter a damns because Clermont Toulon, Racing, Montpellier, Saracens, Exeter, Wasps, etc. etc.

Are the pots not based on final outcome, not final league position?

Would have enjoyed a return to Gloucester,but not on.Bath another rugby town but no luck either....however Northhampton would be a good spot to go to...a lot of ex-pat Irish there too.

Evil_g wrote: God no. It's entirely based on my own half baked understanding of last year's draw.

Sound, I'm sure it'll probably be the same. They don't really do imagination.

pinky wrote: Out of interest Evil_g, was there an actual announcement about the draw format or are you just basing it on the previous two?
Possibility they could change it to something less unnecessarily complicated.

God no. It's entirely based on my own half baked understanding of last year's draw.

Out of interest Evil_g, was there an actual announcement about the draw format or are you just basing it on the previous two?
Possibility they could change it to something less unnecessarily complicated.

As it stands we're guaranteed to avoid Pot 4 and a win over Treviso would mean we almost certainly won't be in Pot 3 (we would be third at worst so unless 4th beat 1st we would be in Pot 2).
Probably not much difference between Pots 1 and 2, but Sarries will prob be in Pot 1 and I just don't want to be having to deal with them.

Teams we could get based on current league postions and assuming Montpellier win the Challenge Cup ...
Pot 4: Castres, Bordeaux, Sale, Edinburgh, Zebre
Pot 3: Toulouse, Racing, Leicester, Northampton

So good chance of a decent draw from Pot 4 but as you can see the beatability index falls off a cliff after that!

pinky wrote: Well well, Evil_g with the jinxiest thread ever conceived ...
You're pretty much right with the seeding rules - though the rules to prevent teams from the same country being drawn together aren't as complicated as they look. Effectively after the first three pots are drawn, there has to be one team from each league in each pool. After that, the only rule is that two Pro12 teams from the same country can be drawn together (English and French teams doubling up is inevitable). So Munster qualifying as the sixth-placed team actually slightly increases our chances of getting Zebre as we can't be drawn with Munster. That said I would not mind at all being drawn with Edinburgh.
As it stands, something like Connacht, Exeter, Castres, Zebre would not be outside the realms of possibility. I'd take that.

Love you optimism Pinky. That's a QF draw because on current form and style of play, we would take Exeter.

Well well, Evil_g with the jinxiest thread ever conceived ...
You're pretty much right with the seeding rules - though the rules to prevent teams from the same country being drawn together aren't as complicated as they look. Effectively after the first three pots are drawn, there has to be one team from each league in each pool. After that, the only rule is that two Pro12 teams from the same country can be drawn together (English and French teams doubling up is inevitable). So Munster qualifying as the sixth-placed team actually slightly increases our chances of getting Zebre as we can't be drawn with Munster. That said I would not mind at all being drawn with Edinburgh.
As it stands, something like Connacht, Exeter, Castres, Zebre would not be outside the realms of possibility. I'd take that.

McNamara wrote: Ah Bath would be great for a rugby weekend but it looks like its not an option unfortunately, hopefully we get Clermont, an away game to them would be craicing

Catch 22 for you then. To stand any chance of getting Clermont we have to finish anywhere other than 1st as Clermont will probably win the French league.

Ah Bath would be great for a rugby weekend but it looks like its not an option unfortunately, hopefully we get Clermont, an away game to them would be craicing

Would love to get Racing (Dan Carter and a trip to Paris) or Grenoble (Weekend At Bernies 2 - The Drunkening)

So, eh....I suppose we can start this thread now can't we?

Dates for your diary:

Round 1: October 13th/14th/15th/16th

Round 2: October 19th/20th/21th/22th

Round 3: December 10th/11th/12th/13th

Round 4: December 17th/18th/19th/20th

Round 5: January 12th/13th/14th/15th

Round 6: January 19th/20th/21th/22th

Quite a bit to go (and we're still in the middle of a round of matches) but at the moment the following teams fill the qualification positions:

Leinster
Connacht
Glasgow
Scarlets
Ulster
Edinburgh
Zebre

Saracens
Wasps
Leicester
Exeter
Northampton
Harlequins

Clermont
Toulon
Montpellier
Racing Metro
Bordeaux
Castre

Toulouse and Sale both have games in hand that could bring them into the mix. Munster have Edinburgh at home which would qualify them.

One of Harlequins, Grenoble, Dragons or Montpelier can qualify through the Challenge Cup (or earn an extra place for their league).

Seeding is not based entirely on final league position. The winner of each league goes into pot 1, losing finalist goes into pot 2, losing semifinalists go into pot 3 and 4 (decided based on league position), then the remaining pots are filled based on league position.

All three teams in pot 1 are top seeds, then two are drawn from pot 2, to make five top seeds. The remaining team from pot 2 is a second seed joined by all three from pot 3, and one random team from pot 4; and so on (I think).

This has the effect that form at this time of year counts for a lot; and some very consistent teams can find themselves lower down the seeding. Getting to a final almost guarantees top seeding. There are no easy groups, but there is a group with an Italian team in it (which I presume we don't want).

There's some pretty complicated system to prevent teams from the same country being drawn together (I think).

Pity Bath are out of the running. I'd love to go to Bath for a rugby weekend.