Sol_ie wrote:

eezipc wrote: Would be nice to get Sale.

I dunno, wouldn't like to come up against their outhalf.

(also: Sale isn't in France, as I learned last week)

:lol: Le Sale.

eezipc wrote: Would be nice to get Sale.

I dunno, wouldn't like to come up against their outhalf.

(also: Sale isn't in France, as I learned last week)

Would be nice to get Sale.

Update

Tier 1	Tier 2	Tier 3	Tier 4
Connacht :silly:	Wasps	Scarlets	Munster
Saracens	Glasgow	Northampton	Sale
Winner T14	Runner Up 3	Other Losing SF 2	Zebre
Runner Up 1	Best Losing SF 3	Other Losing SF 3	7th place Top 14
Runner Up 2	Other Losing SF 1**	5th place Top 14	6th place T14

**This team must be from the same league as the losing finalist who is drawn as Runner Up 3 (I think)

Two of Leinster, Exeter and the Top 14 Runner up will go into tier 1 with the remaining team going into Tier 2.

One of Ulster, Wasps and the fourth placed French team will go into Tier 2 with the remaining team going into Tier 3.

Bordeaux bet brieve at the weekend so the French qualifiers are pretty much certain to be the current top seven of:

1. Clermont
2. Montpellier
3. Racing
4. Toulon
5. Toulouse
6. Castres
7. Bordeaux

Bordeaux came close to pulling off an upset away to Montpellier but fell short. Brive thrashed Grenoble.
So Bordeaux v Brive next Saturday is pretty much a straight shootout for the last qualifying spot. Allez Brive.

So after yesterday's games (I think) this is the lay of the land.

Tier 1	Tier 2	Tier 3	Tier 4
Winner Pro 12	Wasps	Scarlets	Munster
Winner AP	Glasgow	Northampton	Sale
Winner T14	Runner Up 3	Other Losing SF 2	Zebre
Runner Up 1	Best Losing SF 3	Other Losing SF 3	7th place Top 14
Runner Up 2	Other Losing SF 1**	5th place Top 14	6th place T14

**This team must be from the same league as the losing finalist who is drawn as Runner Up 3 (I think)

Other Losing Semifinalists includes Wasps and Ulster.

So, with Leinster beating Ulster, Connacht are now guaranteed to be at worst second seeds.

Montpellier's Challenge Cup win means 7 French teams in the Champions' Cup (Montpellier themselves were already safe).
The shake-up for the last couple of spots could be interesting enough.
Current standings are:

5 Toulouse 66
6 Bordeaux 61
7 Castres 58
8 La Rochelle 54
9 Brive 52

Toulouse are safe and I think Castres will get up to 6th (they have La Rochelle and Paris at home and Oyonnax away and should be fancied in all 3).
La Rochelle won't feature but there's an outside chance Brive could overhaul Bordeaux.
Bordeaux have Montpellier and Toulon away and both of those are fighting for a top 2 spot, so I'd expect them to lose both of those. Meanwhile Brive have Grenoble and Pau at home (nothing to play for, they should win both).
The middle game of the remaining 3 is Bordeaux at home to Brive (the day of the Pro12 final), so that could effectively be a play-off for the last Champions' Cup spot. You'd have to fancy Bordeaux at home of course, but it would be a huge opportunity for Brive.
If Pot 4 in the draw ends up being Munster, Sale, Zebre, Castres, Brive, I'd take that.

salmson wrote: Christ. That's scarily like something I'd say.

Perhaps you already did and I just remembered it and inadvertently plagiarised it. We do after all have this discussion about this time every season ...

pinky wrote:
It's a fairly drawn out process but very entertaining if you watch it with someone like me or salmson.
It's great TV for people who really like rugby but have always lamented the fact that there isn't enough maths in it.
Only major drawback is that it usually involves Craig Doyle, who knows very little about either subject.

Christ. That's scarily like something I'd say. Of course as soon as the leagues are finished (that's early August for the Top 14, right?) I'll have my spreadsheet of odds we're drawn against each team drawn up.

Oh, and Craig Doyle vill be eliminated.

Yeah the thing is, they have lots of rules and some of them are completely redundant as they rule out eventualities that can't happen anyway, or guarantee things that are already certainties. The rule you highlighted above is case in point. By the time the first three teams in each pool are drawn, there will already be one team from each league in each pool (because of various other rules), so the English and French teams from the fourth seed pool (Wasps, Oyonnax and Bordeaux Begles in the example above) would have to be drawn with a higher seeded team from their own league because every pool would contain one anyway.

Basically the way they separate the teams from the various leagues is they draw the teams from each league separately for each seeding, e.g. for the third seeds there might be 2 French, 2 English and 1 Pro12 team, so they start by putting the two French teams in one hat and the numbers of all the pools that don't already have a French team in another hat and drawing them one each, and repeat for the other leagues. At some point, they might get to a stage where there is only one possible remaining configuration that meets all the various rules and if so they just go with that.

It's a fairly drawn out process but very entertaining if you watch it with someone like me or salmson.
It's great TV for people who really like rugby but have always lamented the fact that there isn't enough maths in it.
Only major drawback is that it usually involves Craig Doyle, who knows very little about either subject.

Each of the five pools must have at least one team from the three leagues. To ease the complication slightly, the organisers have already decided that fourth seeds Wasps, Oyonnax and Bordeaux Begles will feature in a pool with higher seeds from their own league. No pool will contain more than two teams from one league

Pro12 teams from the same country may not be drawn together.

Anyone know what the bold bit above was about then?

Having an Irish team in each of tiers 1, 2, 3 and 4 would make the draw very complicated; and if they're open to doing whatever it is they did last year to "ease the complication slightly", throwing a few of us into the same pot would achieve that.

It's the same reason "Runner up 3" and "Other losing SF1" must be from the same league. (I think)

[Edit] I'm an idiot. Mixing up pools and pots / tiers. Ignore everything. It is nonsense.

Bah. Double post.

kermis wrote:

salmson wrote: There are four Irish teams and five groups to draw them into. Fiddling the pots outside the rules is completely unnecessary.

Doesn't matter. Previous posters are right as it depends on play off finishing position, not just that you've qualified.

Not what I was discussing at all. I'm aware the playoffs mean that none of the top four Pro 12 seeds need match to their finishing position in the table (e.g. if Connacht beat Ulster in the final).

My point was that there is already a process to assign the seeds (whatever order) into 4 pots/tiers by means of a draw, ahead of the main pool draw. It was suggested that having 3 teams from Ireland drawn into one pot would break the process, the draw would be forgone, and one or more Irish teams would be "assigned" to a pot arbitrarily.

This is of course nonsense: for example France had three teams in Pot/Tier 2 for the 2014/15 draw.

salmson wrote: There are four Irish teams and five groups to draw them into. Fiddling the pots outside the rules is completely unnecessary.

Doesn't matter. Previous posters are right as it depends on play off finishing position, not just that you've qualified.

There are four Irish teams and five groups to draw them into. Fiddling the pots outside the rules is completely unnecessary.