Not at all. Looking at the next two games, it makes a lot of sense to prioritise Worcester over Munster. Another win in Thomond would be fantastic but it's not a place we generally expect to get points and our league prospects wouldn't be particularly damaged by defeat. A result in Worcester on the other hand puts us in a very good position in the Challenge Cup and is achievable so is well worth pursuing.
That however is not the same as prioritising the Challenge Cup over the Pro14. The Challenge Cup is well worth competing for in its own right but the league is the more likely route into the Champions Cup.
There aren't really that many times when the two ambitions come into conflict. The home game against Edinburgh is the week before the QF weekend but the 6N break is just before that so it can be full strength for both of those. There might have to be some decisions made if we get to the semi as we're away to Glasgow the weekend before but that's the second last game of the regular season so we'll know the lie of the land by then.

Podge57 wrote:

Tall Paul wrote: The way KK is rotated the squad I think we should put our strongest possible teams for all matches.

With all the Wales injuries, will Cardiff loose more players than us to the 6N?
This maybe another factor to consider.

All we need to do is match Cardiff result in the rest of the games, and better then in one game.
I think this is possible to do, and easier thing to do IMO.
I would love is to win the challenge cup.
I think the pro 14 is the easier way to qualify

And Ospreys? They may in fact prove our undoing.

we could prevent Ospreys to catch 8 points with head-to-head against them
We won't catch Cardiff because they have an easy run-in.
And in the end it seems K.K agrees with me on the ChallengeCup road, we should be full-strengh for Worcester (Masterson, Coulson, Farrell, International players preseved)

Tall Paul wrote: The way KK is rotated the squad I think we should put our strongest possible teams for all matches.

With all the Wales injuries, will Cardiff loose more players than us to the 6N?
This maybe another factor to consider.

All we need to do is match Cardiff result in the rest of the games, and better then in one game.
I think this is possible to do, and easier thing to do IMO.
I would love is to win the challenge cup.
I think the pro 14 is the easier way to qualify

And Ospreys? They may in fact prove our undoing.

The way KK is rotated the squad I think we should put our strongest possible teams for all matches.

With all the Wales injuries, will Cardiff loose more players than us to the 6N?
This maybe another factor to consider.

All we need to do is match Cardiff result in the rest of the games, and better then in one game.
I think this is possible to do, and easier thing to do IMO.
I would love is to win the challenge cup.
I think the pro 14 is the easier way to qualify

I wasn't expecting less from you

connachta wrote:

connachta wrote: I'd still take those 2 teams home : 70% chances twice still mean 49% chances overall
rather than Edinb. away once (no more than 40% IMO)

Pinky, I'd like your reactionabout those math probablilities

I can formally confirm that 49 is greater than 40.

pinky wrote: Worcester weren't really taking the Challenge Cup seriously but they might change their policy now.
They are odds-on to avoid relegation and they have an 8 day turnaround before the Connacht game so they might have a cut at it. They'd have an away QF but if they can win that it's a likely home semi so it might be just what they need to inject a bit of positivity into their season. An outside chance of being in the Champions Cup would be a useful selling point if your club is on the market.
On the flipside Paris might take a similar approach thus denying Edinburgh points and giving Connacht a chance of second seeding even without beating Worcester.

Both true.
I still think Edinburgh will be Top2 and we're able to win in Sixways even if they're slightly motivated, if it's not raining

connachta wrote:

pinky wrote:

connachta wrote: It'smy personal feeling indeed but I'm convinced we've got way more chances home vs Newcastle UBB/Stade Fr, than away vs vastly improved Edinburgh

Against one of them, probably, but we would have to beat two.

I'd still take those 2 teams home : 70% chances twice still mean 49% chances overall
rather than Edinb. away once (no more than 40% IMO)

Pinky, I'd like your reactionabout those math probablilities

Worcester weren't really taking the Challenge Cup seriously but they might change their policy now.
They are odds-on to avoid relegation and they have an 8 day turnaround before the Connacht game so they might have a cut at it. They'd have an away QF but if they can win that it's a likely home semi so it might be just what they need to inject a bit of positivity into their season. An outside chance of being in the Champions Cup would be a useful selling point if your club is on the market.
On the flipside Paris might take a similar approach thus denying Edinburgh points and giving Connacht a chance of second seeding even without beating Worcester.

Disagree about PRO14 too. Cardiff is able to do a good "home-run" (like baseball) vs Cheetahs, Kings and Ulster. I can't see us winning away in either Munster and Glasgow. And we would need to, maybe both, IMO.
The home 8-pointer in the Sportsground vs Cardiff was key....

salmson wrote: Looking at the upcoming games, if you're going full bore for one (and we can't for both given the turnarounds) I'd agree with Connachta that the Worcester one trumps the Munster one, but that the point is moot: Uncle Joe will make sure we're without Ultan, Kieran & Bundee so we'll have to do some major rotation for next weekend.

But the wider problem with Connachta's assumption that we should target the Challenge Cup is our record in England: we've only ever won two competitive matches (from 30ish) over there (admittedly the last one in 2009 was against Worcester). Lose in Worcester - and they will start as strong favourites - and we're looking at an away semi; again, possibly in England.

If we win our home games in the Pro14 we'll finish (at worst) in the playoff position & likely face an Edinburgh side we regularly beat over there. Knock off Treviso away and we'll probably finish ahead of Cardiff. So while the heart wants a Challenge Cup trophy, the head knows it's the league that's the bread-and-butter.

Agree with premisce 100%, not with conclusion.
Worcester is not invested in this competition. They know they'll have, at best, an away QF
They'll miss Jano Lance, probably Teo'o who's just back training and likely their main TH (Schonert) too. Which will even things up if Buckley's still out.
They're not strong favorite at all IMO. But we have to go full-strenght with a rested team.

pinky wrote: But Blues also have Cheetahs away. From what I can see Edinburgh (H) is the missing one for Connacht. They already beat Blues in the Arms Park.

It's fixed. it wasn't a missing game for Connacht but a Cardiff game who shoudn't have appeared.


All the difference within 4 games, mostly home for them, away for us:(

Looking at the upcoming games, if you're going full bore for one (and we can't for both given the turnarounds) I'd agree with Connachta that the Worcester one trumps the Munster one, but that the point is moot: Uncle Joe will make sure we're without Ultan, Kieran & Bundee so we'll have to do some major rotation for next weekend.

But the wider problem with Connachta's assumption that we should target the Challenge Cup is our record in England: we've only ever won two competitive matches (from 30ish) over there (admittedly the last one in 2009 was against Worcester). Lose in Worcester - and they will start as strong favourites - and we're looking at an away semi; again, possibly in England.

If we win our home games in the Pro14 we'll finish (at worst) in the playoff position & likely face an Edinburgh side we regularly beat over there. Knock off Treviso away and we'll probably finish ahead of Cardiff. So while the heart wants a Challenge Cup trophy, the head knows it's the league that's the bread-and-butter.

Shit but it's not even as Italians oppositions are not the same (home and away). I'll try to fix this, sorry..

But Blues also have Cheetahs away. From what I can see Edinburgh (H) is the missing one for Connacht. They already beat Blues in the Arms Park.

pinky wrote:

connachta wrote: It'smy personal feeling indeed but I'm convinced we've got way more chances home vs Newcastle UBB/Stade Fr, than away vs vastly improved Edinburgh

Against one of them, probably, but we would have to beat two.

I'd still take those 2 teams home : 70% chances twice still mean 49% chances overall
rather than Edinb. away once (no more than 40% IMO)