The Shield final is scheduled as part of the finals weekend in Bilbao. The German lads will play Saracens' Romanian cousins in a 2 leg playoff and you have the big Krasnoyarsk derby over 2 games - Krasny Yar and Enisey-STM. Games to be played March/April 2018. The winners of the 2 games will contest the Shield final and will play in the 18/19 Challenge Cup.

Also as far as I know the final of that competition will be in Bilbao the same weekend as the other two finals, so would be an appetiser before the main events of the Challenge and Champions cup finals.

Sure if we don't make it to the top tier there's a good chance there'll be a brand new destination on the map in the Challenge Cup, with Heidelberger Ruderklub into the Continental Shield semi-finals.
Funnily enough according to their website they seem to think they are already in the final, but with both finalists qualifying for the Challenge Cup, they are only one (two-legged) win away. And sure if they don't make it, we've still never made that trip to Romania ...
hrk1872.de/2018/01/20/hrk-zieht-in-conti...l-shield-finale-ein/

It's over for Clermont
We have to rely on Leinster beating them in the final. Very possible.

Good for Pau, they're playing well and could catch top6

Newcastle vs Pau Final might give us a chance

Shocking display from Paris gives a TBP away from home for Pau, putting them in a much better position to get a top 6 spot.
Bad news on the Clermont front though. Home defeat to Montpellier leaves them potentially in trouble.

Epic. I actually directed that. You can tell it's not really Connemara by the piebalds, which are more of an East Galway thing.
Not sure how it helps to get us to the Champions Cup, but if it helps more French people learn the words to our songs, that might get us over the line

Oh. My. God.

Banm wrote: @pinky - You may like this.....

www.broadsheet.ie/2018/01/23/lacks-connemara/

OMG where did you get this??? 33 millions views... There is no accounting for taste.

@pinky - You may like this.....

www.broadsheet.ie/2018/01/23/lacks-connemara/

That's right Pau are the dangerous men.
+ they have home QF SF AND final (can't be a closer location)

As it stands the chances of qualifying for next season's Champions Cup via the Challenge Cup without winning it seem to be receding now that Pau have been promoted to tournament favourites. Still a possibility though.
If the QFs are all won by the home teams, the other semi-finalists prospects of qualifying via their leagues are mixed.
Edinburgh will very likely be qualified if Connacht aren't.
Newcastle are currently 6th, but it's pretty tight in the middle of that table. Bookies have them at 7th favourites to make the top 4 so are in with a fighting chance of qualifying.
Pau's outlook looks less promising. They're 9th but only 3 points behind 5th. A long way to go there yet. They're about 10th favourites.
Obviously we can't play Newcastle in the final. If we make the final it would most likely be against Pau, who would also be chasing the last qualifying spot. If Edinburgh manage to take out Pau, and we lose to Newcastle in the semi, there's the possiblity of a playoff against Pau if Newcastle and Edinburgh are already qualified.
Then there is the slightly bizarre possibilty that Edinburgh play already qualified Newcastle in the final but the week before we have to play Edinburgh in the seventh-placed Pro 14 playoff and Edinburgh put out a second string team as they're guaranteed to qualify anyway.
Best just win it to be sure (assuming Clermont don't need the spot).

In the meantime we can entertain ourselves by following Pau and Newcastle's fortunes, starting Sunday in Paris.

sea_point wrote:

connachta wrote: Sadly your 1st table with maximal points is way more likely IMO

Which means a home QF very winable vs Cardiff, but an away SF to Edinburg/Newcastle/Gloucester

Then we just would have to pray Newcastle are not finalist (or finish Top6 in England) and Clermont don't win the other cup (or finish Top6 in France but I doubt it now)

If both condition are reunited, we're qualified, at least for a play-off vs the other losing SF (Newcastle in the worst case, Gloucester and Edinburgh should be already qualified, so no play-off and we'd be through)
And I'd be hopeful because the play-off could by home (if the draw is lucky this time)...

The first table is based on assuming maximum (i.e. TB) points, and isn't way more likely. It is only a possibility.

I don't see maximum point wins happening in either GLOvPAU or SFvEDI games.
French teams don't roll over at home but aren't as fearsome on the road, and Gloucester at Kingsholm in front of a beery and boisterous shed, will win by just enough.

Even with the Falcons on the road in ENSEI, they home side are a different kettle of fish over in Russia...Falcons are still the most likely to get a TB Win but either way it doesn't affect our potential 2nd place seeding position...

French don't roll over for the initial rounds, with smth to play for. Now Stade have litterally no real chance to qualify (except a miracle in Brive/Newport), they will. French TV will help a bit, but I'm convinced Edinburgh are gonna win (and be top 2)

Edinburg finishing the game with less than 2 points (26 overall, better difference) is less likely than seeing weakened Falcons failng in Russia. That's is to say it's very unlikely. IMO

connachta wrote: Sadly your 1st table with maximal points is way more likely IMO

Which means a home QF very winable vs Cardiff, but an away SF to Edinburg/Newcastle/Gloucester

Then we just would have to pray Newcastle are not finalist (or finish Top6 in England) and Clermont don't win the other cup (or finish Top6 in France but I doubt it now)

If both condition are reunited, we're qualified, at least for a play-off vs the other losing SF (Newcastle in the worst case, Gloucester and Edinburgh should be already qualified, so no play-off and we'd be through)
And I'd be hopeful because the play-off could by home (if the draw is lucky this time)...

The first table is based on assuming maximum (i.e. TB) points, and isn't way more likely. It is only a possibility.

I don't see maximum point wins happening in either GLOvPAU or SFvEDI games.
French teams don't roll over at home but aren't as fearsome on the road, and Gloucester at Kingsholm in front of a beery and boisterous shed, will win by just enough.

Even with the Falcons on the road in ENSEI, they home side are a different kettle of fish over in Russia...Falcons are still the most likely to get a TB Win but either way it doesn't affect our potential 2nd place seeding position...

salmson wrote: The Glouceter Pau match could be run for the stattos amongst us. If Agen lose by less than six points and equal or better Gloucester's try count, they would win the group but be behind Connacht for seedings. If they lose by 6 or 7 they'd need to get a try bonus point also while denying Gloucester one.

Well that's true, it depends if they go full-strength. I doubt it, as usual it will be TOP14 1st....

There is also the possibility (very slim) Gloucester win by 10-12 points and Connacht by 50 against a very weak Oyonnax lineup.
It won't be good IMO, we would have a harder QF without having a home semi.
Because Edinburgh are the real issue for top2. Stade won't play fully, their chance of a QF is too thin

The Glouceter Pau match could be fun for the stattos amongst us. If Agen lose by less than six points and equal or better Gloucester's try count, they would win the group but be behind Connacht for seedings. If they lose by 6 or 7 they'd need to get a try bonus point also while denying Gloucester one.

Sadly your 1st table with maximal points is way more likely IMO

Which means a home QF very winable vs Cardiff, but an away SF to Edinburg/Newcastle/Gloucester

Then we just would have to pray Newcastle are not finalist (or finish Top6 in England) and Clermont don't win the other cup (or finish Top6 in France but I doubt it now)

If both condition are reunited, we're qualified, at least for a play-off vs the other losing SF (Newcastle in the worst case, Gloucester and Edinburgh should be already qualified, so no play-off and we'd be through)
And I'd be hopeful because the play-off could by home (if the draw is lucky this time)...