After a poor start, Ulster getting on top against Leinster but from our viewpoint Edinburgh cruising against Zebre at half time. 20-0, 2 tries in the bag and Zebre already having accumulated two yellows, the 5 points look inevitable. Before kick off they were 50 points behind us on scoring difference (which is the decisive factor if level on points and number of wins/draws). Hopefully they won't narrow that too much in the 2nd half.

Week 19 Round Up
As the race for Top 4, home semi-finals and European Champions Cup qualification becomes ever more intense, Glasgow, Ulster, Munster and Ospreys all kept their foot to the floor and picked up full points in Round 19.

Glasgow laid down a marker on the Friday night by scoring 4 tries before half time at home to Cardiff. Peter Horne bagged a hat trick in a 24 point haul as the home side led 29-3 at the break. Cardiff regained some pride with 2 second half tries. Their 36-17 margin of defeat was the exact same score as they lost to Ulster in Round 18 but for Glasgow the prospect of a first ever Pro 12 title continues to look a realistic target.

Ospreys kept the pressure on at the Top with a 5 point haul in Italy away to Treviso. Trailing 13-11 late on, 3 Ospreys tries in the closing quarter secured a 33-13 bonus point victory.

With every point vital in the race for 2nd and a home quarter final, Ulster delivered an efficient performance to become only the 3rd team to win in Galway this season. A clinical first half performance put Ulster 17-0 up at half time and although Connacht narrowed the gap to 7 points and almost rescued a draw in an exciting finish, Ulster held on to secure the win and with 5 tries secured the maximum points haul.

Having seen all their rivals pick up 5 points, Munster responded to the challenge of matching them as they scored 5 tries in a comfortable 34-3 win away to Edinburgh at Murrayfield.

Prior to Round 19, Leinster's hopes of Top 4 looked slim but they now appear to need a minor miracle to reach the league semi-finals as they trail 4th place by 8 points. Leading 22-8 and with 3 tries in the bag early in the 2nd half, the 5 points appeared to be in Leinster's grasp but a spirited fightback from the Dragons saw them score 3 tries including 2 from James Benjamin without a response from Leinster to record a shock victory and in the process collect an all important bonus point.

With Edinburgh and Connacht losing at home, Scarlets got back on track for 6th place with a hard fought win away to Zebre. Level at 13-13 at half time, Scarlets edged ahead 20-13 and 25-23 but couldn't shake off the Italian side. When Zebre hit the front late on they looked to be on course for an all important win in their battle for European Cup rugby. However, having survived a missed Rhys Priestland penalty on 79 minutes, Zebre conceded another penalty on 82 minutes and Priestland held his nerve to secure a priceless away win for Scarlets.

Round 19 Results
Glasgow 36-17 Cardiff
Treviso 13-33 Ospreys
Zebre 26-28 Scarlets
Connacht 20-27 Ulster
Edinburgh 3-34 Munster
Dragons 25-22 Leinster

Table after Round 19
Glasgow 65
Ulster 63
Munster 63
Ospreys 61
Leinster 53
Connacht 44
Scarlets 44
Edinburgh 43
Dragons 37
Cardiff 30
Treviso 18
Zebre 15

Round 20 Fixtures
Friday 24th April Edinburgh v Zebre
Edinburgh and Zebre will both be desperate for points to keep their respective hopes of European Cup rugby alive. Edinburgh remain in the race for a Top 6 finish while also qualifying for the Challenge Cup final and will hope for all 5 points to heap the pressure on their rivals for a Top 6 finish. Edinburgh won the corresponding game 25-23 in November 2013.

Friday 24th April Ulster v Leinster
Ulster will hope to move a step closer to a home semi-final when they host provincial rivals Leinster at Ravenhill on Friday. Leinster know that only a win will give them any chance of a Top 4 finish. Leinster won the corresponding game 22-20 in May 2014.

Saturday 25th April Connacht v Glasgow
Connacht will hope to keep their destiny in their own hands heading into the final 2 rounds as they host top of the table Glasgow. With games to come against Ospreys and Ulster to finish the regular season, Glasgow will not want any slip ups in Galway. Glasgow won the corresponding fixture 19-12 in November 2013.

Saturday 25th April Cardiff v Ospreys
Cardiff will hope to rescue some pride from a poor season and dent Ospreys play off hopes when they get a rare opportunity to play in Millenium Stadium on Saturday on Welsh 'Judgement Day'. Ospreys won the corresponding fixture 22-19 in December 2013

Saturday 25th April Munster v Treviso
Having lost just one in their previous 7, Munster will expect to remain on course for a Top 2 finish when they host Treviso on Saturday. The Italians have it all to play for also as they chase European Cup rugby for 2015/16. Munster won the corresponding fixture 14-3 in March 2014.

Saturday 25th April Dragons v Scarlets
In the 2nd of the judgement day double headers, Scarlets face Dragons at the Millenium Stadium knowing that a win would leave them strong favourites to secure European Cup rugby for 2015/16. Dragons come into this fixture on the back of a heavy defeat in the semi-final of the Challenge Cup to Edinburgh but their win over Leinster in Round 19 means that although remote they still retain some hope of challenging for 6th of 7th place. Dragons won the corresponding fixture 23-16 in September 2013.

Connnnnacht wrote:

Shelflife wrote: Conspiracy theory no 1.

Even if Leinster rolled over they have already enabled us to play in 3 Heineken Cup campaigns.

I'm pretty sure that our qualification wasn't foremost on their minds when winning those finals !

That told yeah

Connnnnacht wrote:

Shelflife wrote: Conspiracy theory no 1.

If Leinster travel to Edin on the last day with nothing to gain, will the IRFU have a quiet word in their ear and "encourage" them to go all out in order no maximise our chances of HC rugby ?

Even if Leinster rolled over they have already enabled us to play in 3 Heineken Cup campaigns.

Not exactly, we did beat Harlequins in 2012 to enable Ulster to progress as best runners up from their pool when they made the final. Let's not unnecessarily attribute all our Heineken Cup qualifications to Leinster now

Shelflife wrote: Conspiracy theory no 1.

If Leinster travel to Edin on the last day with nothing to gain, will the IRFU have a quiet word in their ear and "encourage" them to go all out in order no maximise our chances of HC rugby ?

Even if Leinster rolled over they have already enabled us to play in 3 Heineken Cup campaigns.

Let's just do this the easy way and win the last 3 games with a try bonus point thrown in for good measure.

Conspiracy theory no 1.

If Leinster travel to Edin on the last day with nothing to gain, will the IRFU have a quiet word in their ear and "encourage" them to go all out in order no maximise our chances of HC rugby ?

Leinster worry me......they looked on their summer holidays at times yesterday and that was with a european semi final to come....god only knows how bad they could be come last game of the season with nothing to play for, I think Edinburgh could get 5 there and another 5 against Zebre, so look like we need a minimum 9 to secure 7th.

Good to still be in with a shout but dammit it's stressful :sick:

Edit: thought Edinburgh were a point behind us not Scarlets.......looks like we need 10 min for 7th :dry:

I'm hopeful we can do Glasgow. Their away record is:
Beat 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th place teams.
Drew with 5th place team.
Lost to 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 8th.
Still to play 4th and 6th.

This result also means the top 4 is almost settled. Should Leinster fail to get a win away to Ulster next weekend is it unlikely they will make the top 4 as I expect Ospreys to beat Cardiff, so the gap could be more than 10 with 2 to play.

Come last day we could be playing an Ospreys team looking to secure a home semi-final, or resting players with the places already decided. While Edinburgh will be playing a Leinster team with nothing to play for, and Scarlets visit a Triviso team with Europe in the bag - or a Triviso team looking to secure a European spot.

Get a point against Glasgow, beat Zebre and it could go to the wire. Isn't it great to be talking about Connacht having it all to play for in April or May?

Interesting result. In theory it means that we can still catch Leinster but that's ridiculously unlikely. It means that Dragons can catch Connacht also but as long as Munster put them away on the last day in Cork, we're OK.
Good news is that with Dragons now in the mix for 6th/7th they will be taking the next two games very seriously and as Borders says, could cause problems for our two rivals.
Bad news is it could mean that Leinster have nothing to play for when they go to Murrayfield on the last day.

Dragons secure a bonus point win over Leinster moving them to within 7 of us. They are away to Edinburgh in the challenge cup semi-final next weekend but I'm encouraged enough by what I saw that they will pose problems for Scarlets and Edinburgh in the league run in.

10 points should get 6th imo. Scarlets are brutal away from home. If connacht can win one of the two remaining home games and get minimum of lbp in other plus do a number on zebre away it will be enough imo. its a big ask but connacht have to earn 6th over 22 games and it's in their hands to do it.

Sixth is a big ask but 7th is very possible. Edinburgh will probably get 5 points at home to Zebre but their other two games are loseable. If they don't get bonus points then Connacht would only need 4 points.
Wouldn't like to be relying on it but we could actually have a poor finish to the season and still get away with it.
How we would fare in the playoffs under those circumstances is another matter.

No harm to see Munster pushing on. First determinant if level on points is number of wins. We both have 9 wins and 1 draw, 2nd determinant scoring difference, we have +20, Edinburgh are currently -30. They have Zebre at home so Munster winning well here could be important.

Edit: Ok Good performance from Munster, used their maul to good effect and wore Edinburgh down as the game progressed to dominate all aspects. In such a key game the nature of that defeat will have killed the momentum Edinburgh had built up:

With 3 rounds left in the race for 6th:
6. Connacht 44 (9 wins + 1 draw) +20
7. Scarlets 44 (8 wins + 3 draws) +31
8. Edinburgh 43 (9 wins + 1 draw) -30

Connacht Fixtures: Glasgow (h) Zebre (a) Ospreys (h)
Scarlets Fixtures: Dragons (n) Cardiff (h) Treviso (a)
Edinburgh Fixtures: Zebre (h) Dragons (a) Leinster (h)

Ok looking at the run in, Scarlets last gasp win today keeps them in the box seat but shows no points are guaranteed. Next up for them is Dragons (who will be after their Challenge Cup semi-final). Unfortunately they have Cardiff at home who are only playing out the season and didn't look like they gave a toss last night. It looks likely that Treviso will have to get a result of some description on the last day (or rely on favours) as their next 2 are away to Munster and Leinster so that should be trickier than may have been imagined. You'd have to fancy them to win all 3 but who knows. I'd feel a lot happier if the Dragons game was in Rodney Parade given their away record.

Edinburgh have the Challenge Cup next weekend, should get a result against Zebre, I'd be happy if it was only a 4 pointer, Zebre have it all to play for there though. Dragons away will be the week after the Challenge Cup final and Leinster at home on the last day.The worry with the Leinster game is that Leinster may be out of contention for Top 4 at that stage. The scoring difference advantage over Edinburgh could prove significant yet.

We are unfortunately playing 3 teams with everything to play for. Its looking a long shot for us now but we're still there and as long as we're in with a shout I won't give up hope.

Competition Rules
3.5. If two or more Teams finish with the same number of league points, their placings will be determined by the following criteria in descending order:

number of matches won;
the difference between points for and points against;
the number of tries scored;
the most points scored;
the difference between tries for and tries against;
the fewest number of red cards received;
the fewest number of yellow cards received.

Read more at www.pro12rugby.com/statzone/competition_...#sCIKybx4MD2Owh68.99