b.gud (from Boards.ie) wrote: So now that all the results are in here's what needs to happen for Connacht to finish 6th

A BP win for Connacht next weekend and any loss for Scarlets would mean connacht would get 6th based on games won. A non BP win for Connacht would mean that we would need Scarlets to lose without picking up a BP. In this situation Edinburgh could technically still pip us to 6th but they would need a BP win against Leinster plus have to win by 39 points plus 1 point more than Connachts winning margin.

A win or a draw for Scarlets next weekend would be enough to ensure that the best Connacht could do is 7th. If that was the case connacht could pick up 7th place without getting any points at all, if Edinburgh lose next weekend then all Connacht would need is to lose the game by around less than 40 points and they would be guaranteed 7th. If Edinburgh were to draw then connacht would need a losing BP from next weekend. If Edinburgh were to win then connacht would also need a win.

fingers crossed for a Treviso 8-0 win next week so

Borders no.2 wrote: For me has to be 5 points tomorrow which would give us a 1 point lead over Edinburgh and a scoring difference advantage heading into the last round. Think it'll be very difficult for us to get much off Ospreys in the final round. Looking at Leinster wouldn't be overly convinced they'll go to Murrayfield and win but anyway first things first, win tomorrow, hopefully with a bonus point but a minimum of a win.

First things first, we need to do the business tomorrow. I watched a fair bit of the Ospreys game this evening, and they looked good. They'll certainly be strong favorites to beat us on the last day, which would leave us relying once again on Leinster to help us achieve top tier european competition. It's all still to play for, and that's what we want. Exciting finish to the league it has to be said.

For me has to be 5 points tomorrow which would give us a 1 point lead over Edinburgh and a scoring difference advantage heading into the last round. Think it'll be very difficult for us to get much off Ospreys in the final round. Looking at Leinster wouldn't be overly convinced they'll go to Murrayfield and win but anyway first things first, win tomorrow, hopefully with a bonus point but a minimum of a win.

Best news for Connacht for nearly 3 months!

Decadence wrote: Dragons 19 - 5 Edinburgh, a sliver of hope appears

more than a sliver at least for a 7th place finish

Dragons 19 - 5 Edinburgh, a sliver of hope appears

Week 20 Round Up
With the regular Pro 12 season into its penultimate round Glasgow remain top of the league after a 31-13 win away to Connacht. Despite trailing 6-0 early on, Glasgow ruthlessly took the chances presented to them by the home side to run in 3 tries (including 2 from Niko Matawalu) and race into a 19-6 half time lead. Connacht fought back to within 6 points but Adam Ashe's try put Glasgow back in control and secured the all important 5 points.

Munster took a step closer to a home semi-final as they moved into 2nd position with a hard fought 30-19 bonus point win over Treviso in Cork. Leading 20-7 at half time Munster struggled to shake off the Italian side and only secured all the points with a late penalty try.

Ulster took another significant step towards a home final at Ravenhill while simultaneously ending Leinster's slim Top 4 hopes with a 26-10 win over Leinster at Kingspan Ravenhill. An early Ben Te'o try helped ease Leinster into a 10-0 lead but they failed to score again as Ulster roared into the game. A try from Iain Henderson turned the tide Ulster's way and Craig Gilroy's 2nd half try secured the 4 points.

Ospreys remain just 4 points off top spot as they recorded a 31-23 win over the Cardiff Blues in their 'Judgement Day' contest at the Millennium Stadium. Cardiff Blues seeking to regain some pride from a disappointing season edged into a 9-7 half time lead but Ospreys upped the tempo after the break and three 2nd half tries including one from man of the match Dan Biggar saw the Ospreys pick up all 5 points.

Scarlets remain in pole position for the all important 6th place as they overcame Dragons 29-10 at the Millennium Stadium. Trailing 10-3 approaching half time Scarlets looked in a bit of trouble but two quick fire tries before half time changed the complexion of the game. A 3rd try from man of the match Liam Williams followed shortly after the interval and Harry Robinson's try secured all 5 points for the Llanelli men.

Edinburgh kept the pressure on Scarlets with a comfortable 37-0 win at home to Zebre. Tries in either half from Roddy Grant were among the 5 scored by the home side.

Round 20 Results
Edinburgh 37-0 Zebre
Ulster 26-10 Leinster
Connacht 13-31 Glasgow
Cardiff 23-31 Ospreys
Munster 30-19 Treviso
Dragons 10-29 Scarlets

Table after Round 20
Glasgow 70
Munster 68
Ulster 67
Ospreys 66
Leinster 53
Scarlets 49
Edinburgh 48
Connacht 44
Dragons 37
Cardiff 30
Treviso 18
Zebre 15

Round 21 Fixtures
Friday 8th May Dragons v Edinburgh
Edinburgh will look to bounce back from the disappointment of their Challenge Cup final loss to Gloucester when they travel to Rodney Parade to face the Dragons. Edinburgh need a result to keep their European qualification hopes alive. Dragons slim hopes of European Cup rugby for next season ended with defeat against Scarlets last time out but they will look to gain some revenge for their 45-16 Challenge Cup semi-final to the Scottish side on the 25th of April. Edinburgh won the corresponding game 23-19 in April 2014.

Friday 8th May Leinster v Treviso
Leinster will hope to end any lingering doubts that they may miss out on European Cup rugby next season when they host Treviso at the RDS. Treviso are not without their own motivation though as they look to secure the Italian European Cup spot. Leinster won the corresponding fixture 62-7 in April 2014.

Friday 8th May Ospreys v Glasgow
With the race for home semi-final spots intensifying Ospreys will be aware of the need for a win at home to Glasgow if they aren't to be facing an away day semi-final. Glasgow won the corresponding fixture 28-16 in November 2013.

Saturday 9th May Ulster v Munster
With just 1 point separating the sides, both Munster and Ulster face into a very significant interpro clash. With Ulster facing a trip to Glasgow in the final round they will be keen to ensure they finish the league season at Ravenhill with 11 wins from 11. Ulster won the corresponding game 29-19 in January 2014.

Saturday 9th May Zebre v Connacht
After losing their last 5 games in all competitions, Connacht know any more slip ups will end their hopes of a European Cup qualification play off spot. Zebre remain just 3 points off Treviso and will be keen to take advantage of their final home game of the season to put themselves in pole position for the Italian European Cup spot. Connacht won the corresponding game 27-19 in February 2014.

Sunday 10th May Scarlets v Cardiff
Having recorded 2 wins in a row to put their Top 6 hopes back on track, Scarlets will expect to move to within touching distance of a 6th place finish with a win at home to Cardiff. Having picked up just 11 points on the road all season Cardiff won't be expected to cause the home side many difficulties. Scarlets won the corresponding game 27-15 in May 2014

There is another competition going on in the PRO 12.

There is only 3 points between the 2 Itallian sides with a place in the Championship at stake for the one finishing in 11th and the Challenge Cup for 12th.

Zebre play ourselves and Cardiff where as Treviso play Leinster and Scarlets.

With Treviso having apparent the harder games, Zebre will be looking for 1 win from the 2 remaining games.

Let's hope we do not become Zebre ticket to the Championship on Saturday.

For me it's two wins or bust regardless of where that leaves them in the table. If they manage those 2 wins then It is quite possible that teams 5-8 will all have 11 wins to finish the season. It would be hard to argue that Connacht didn't make any progress over last season with them sitting level on victories with Leinster and winning more games than lost. Though unfortunately if they don't manage to beat the Ospreys the last day out it will be hugely disappointing. If that happens they will not have beaten a team above them (not even competitive in most of them) since Munster on 1 Jan and actually dropped a couple they should have won. Perhaps in time the 10 wins and 48/49 points (assuming a win against Zebre) will feel like the improvement it is over last season's 6 wins and 35 points, but right now the weak 2nd half of the season is too fresh in the mind.

salmson wrote: One additional headmelt - we absolutely don't want a Treviso win as they'd have nothing to play for in the final game against Scarlets

Unless Zebre do us a favour by beating us ... oh wait ...

In all honesty we are well and truly knackered for Top 6. Top 7 is an outside possibility but we need to do the business and we will still be relying on favours. The way we are playing we won't get the 2 wins we need (at a minimum) to put the pressure on Edinburgh.

pinky wrote:
Right I've thought about that way too much and my brain is sore.

You know your season is still alive when you're not even sure who to cheer against in the other matces.
One additional headmelt - we absolutely don't want a Treviso win as they'd have nothing to play for in the final game against Scarlets (which I wouldn't be surprised to see Scarlets lose, given the way Treviso played against Munster and Ospreys in recent weeks). Ideally Leinster wouldn't get the bonus point, as you said.

Right, 6th has gotten a whole lot harder but 7th is still doable. Here's my half-assed effort to work out the various scenarios:

While 7th is still possible with just one win, in reality two is a must and a bonus point is probably needed also. That would put us on 53, meaning Edinburgh would need 6 to stay ahead of us and Scarlets 5.

Scarlets
At home to Cardiff and then away to Treviso, it's hard to see them get less than the 5 they need. Straws to clutch at include their defeat in the Arms Park before Christmas, their loss in their last home game and their difficulties on the last trip to Italy.

Edinburgh
After beating Dragons convincingly in the Challenge Cup semi and Dragons' poor showing against Scarlets last week, you'd have to fancy Edinburgh's chances in Rodney Parade. Dragons won't have much to motivate them as they're unlikely to budge either way from 9th place.
Leinster's visit to Murrayfield could be crucial. A lot depends on whether they have anything to play for.

Leinster
Though in theory Connacht can still catch Leinster, it would require them to get nothing from Treviso at the RDS. But as Salmson pointed out on another thread, the silver lining of a Scarlets win against Cardiff is that it would put pressure on Leinster for fifth place, which these days is important for European seeding so might encourage Leinster to bring something to Murrayfield on the last day.

Ospreys
Ideally we want Ospreys not to be chasing anything on the last day, so from that point of view a Glasgow win in Swansea along with a Munster win in Ravenhill or else a bonus point win for Ulster would be helpful, as it could rule Ospreys out of the top 2. They might decide that there is little to choose between a trip to Scotstoun and one to Belfast/Limerick. On the other hand the guaranteed second Euro seeding for third place might be motivation enough.

To summarise, here is my fantasy results list for Round 21:

Dragons v Edinburgh - A Dragons win would be nice.
Leinster v Treviso - A Treviso win would be flipping fantastic, but anything less than 5 for Leinster would be helpful.
Ospreys v Glasgow - Glasgow win please
Ulster v Munster - Ulster try bonus or Munster win, but that's irrelevant if Ospreys beat Glasgow.
Zebre v Connacht - Let me think now ... any chance of a few tries?
Scarlets v Cardiff - Blues to pull off a shock ideally, but failing that, Scarlets to get 4 tries.

To be honest I don't advise putting that set of results in as your SuperBru predictions.

Right I've thought about that way too much and my brain is sore.

37-0 at full time. To be expected really, given how tight the race for the Italian European Cup spot hoped it would be closer but from what I saw Edinburgh dominated up front and 3 yellows for Zebre allowed Edinburgh further leeway. At least it wasn't worse than 37. We still lead them on points difference by 13 which probably won't come into consideration but can't be factored out of the equation.

We need a win tomorrow in all honesty. Can't see Leinster being in the right frame of mind going to Edinburgh in the final round and relying on Treviso to get something against Scarlets is pointless. Dragons may do us a favour or two but we need to earn it ourselves at this stage.

37 0 to Edinburgh at full time, not good for our points difference!

32 0 with 15 mins left, bad news for us.