Top 14 Competition 2nd & 4th seeds drawn in Pot 2

Benetton, Sale, La Rochelle, Ospreys, Saints

Pau, Connacht, Quins, Clermont, Bordeaux

Zebre, Worcester, Dragons, Bristol, Agen

Stade, Grenoble, Perpignan, Timisoara Saracens, Enisei STM

Prem Competition 2nd & 4th seeds drawn into Pot 2

Benetton, Sale, La Rochelle, Ospreys, Pau

Saints, Connacht, Quins, Clermont, Worcester

Zebre, Bordeaux, Dragons, Bristol, Agen

Stade, Grenoble, Perpignan, Timisoara Saracens, Enisei STM

Pro 14 Competition 2nd & 4th seeds drawn into Pot 2

Benetton, Sale, La Rochelle, Pau, Saints

Ospreys, Connacht, Quins, Clermont, Zebre

Bordeaux, Worcester, Dragons, Bristol, Agen

Stade, Grenoble, Perpignan, Timisoara Saracens, Enisei STM

The mini draw will take place before the main one on June 20th.

In all three above scenarios, there is an equal chance of drawing each of the Pot 4 sides. In terms of the Pot 1 & 3 sides, the below are the possible combinations in each scenario:

No 1 - Top 14 Scenario:

4 possible outcomes - Sale & Agen, Saints & Agen, La Rochelle & Worcester, La Rochelle & Bristol

No 2 - Prem Scenario:

4 possible outcomes - Sale & Bordeaux, Sale & Agen, La Rochelle & Bristol and Pau & Bristol

No 3 - Pro 14 Scenario:

8 possible outcomes - Sale & Bordeaux, Sale & Agen, La Rochelle & Worcester, La Rochelle & Bristol, Pau & Worcester, Pau & Bristol, Saints & Bordeaux and Saints & Agen

So Gloucester were caught for sixth place but by Bath not Sale. They will qualify via the Challenge Cup, so it'll be Sale instead of Bath as the top seeds.
We'll still avoid Clermont and Quins and get one of La Rochelle/Pau/Sale/Northampton as the top seed and one of Bordeaux/Agen/Bristol/Worcester.
Probably want to avoid Paris in Pot 4 as that could make for a tricky pool. In terms of getting a winnable pool, Agen are probably the one to hope for as they don't tend to try too hard. Bordeaux might make for a better trip though (than again Agen in only down the road from Bordeaux).
Good few teams we haven't played in recent years so could get an interesting pool.

neill_m wrote: Prem gets extra spot

Pro 14 No8, Prem No8, T14 No7, 2 of (Pro 14 No9, Prem No9, T14 No8)
Benetton/Ulster, Sale, La Rochelle, (Ospreys/Benetton, Saints, Pau)

1 of (Pro 14 No9, Prem No9, T14 No8), Pro 14 No10, Prem No10, T14 No9, 1 of (Pro 14 No11, Prem No11, T14 No10)
1 of (Ospreys/Benetton, Saints, Pau), Connacht, Quins, Clermont, 1 of (Zebre, Worcester, Bordeaux)

2 of (Pro 14 No11, Prem No11, T14 No10), Pro 14 No12, Prem No12, T14 No11
2 of (Zebre, Worcester, Bordeaux), Dragons, Bristol, Agen

T14 No12, T14 No13, T14 No14, CS No1, CS No2
Stade, Grenoble/Oyonnax, Perpignan, Heidelberg, Enisei STM

Each of the groups will have 1 Pro 14 and 1 Prem side. 3 of the groups will have 2 sides from T14, the other 2 will have 1 T14 side and 1 of Heidelberg/Enisei STM.

If you spot any mistakes, let me know

Tiers updated. Enjoy.

Still possible to get Clermont, just not too likely. We would need the Pro14 to get the 20th spot (Leinster win + Gloucester and Pau get top 6), which could put Connacht into Pot 1. Or else Bordeaux overtake Clermont on the last day, thus possibly dropping them to Pot 3 (though either way I don't think we can get both Bristol and Heidelberg, but there way be a magic solution to the conundrum somewhere).

Anyway, I've been hoping for a trip to Clermont for years and to be honest I don't really want it to be in the Challenge Cup! Let's save them for a shock away QF win in our inaugural Champions Cup winning season.

neill_m wrote: Sorry if I have stood on anyone's toes so to speak in doing the possible tiers etc. Will update it at the weekend when we should know which league will get the 20th H Cup spot and the T14 and AP finish up.

Not at all! This is the kind of rugby nerdishness we love. Still hoping for Bristol & Heidelberg, just a shame we can't get Clermont too.

Sorry if I have stood on anyone's toes so to speak in doing the possible tiers etc. Will update it at the weekend when we should know which league will get the 20th H Cup spot and the T14 and AP finish up.

pinky wrote: Good grief.

I think we've been handed our P45s, Pinky. Working out who we can draw before we even know who's in the draw makes our %-chance-of-drawing-team-X posts from this time last year look frankly amateurish in comparison. On the plus side, this proves there's a permutation where we get Bristol and Heidelberg, and I also think it tells me who ends up on the Iron Throne

Good grief.

Prem gets extra spot

Pro 14 No8, Prem No8, T14 No7, 2 of (Pro 14 No9, Prem No9, T14 No8)
Benetton/Ulster, Sale, La Rochelle, 2 of (Ospreys/Benetton, Saints, Pau)

1 of (Pro 14 No9, Prem No9, T14 No8), Pro 14 No10, Prem No10, T14 No9, 1 of (Pro 14 No11, Prem No11, T14 No10)
1 of (Ospreys/Benetton, Saints, Pau), Connacht, Quins, Clermont, 1 of (Zebre, Worcester, Bordeaux)

2 of (Pro 14 No11, Prem No11, T14 No10), Pro 14 No12, Prem No12, T14 No11
2 of (Zebre, Worcester, Bordeaux), Dragons, Bristol, Agen

T14 No12, T14 No13, T14 No14, CS No1, CS No2
Stade, Grenoble/Oyonnax, Perpignan, Heidelberg, Enisei STM

Each of the groups will have 1 Pro 14 and 1 Prem side. 3 of the groups will have 2 sides from T14, the other 2 will have 1 T14 side and 1 of Heidelberg/Enisei STM.

If you spot any mistakes, let me know

Paul Eddison‏ @pauleddison · Apr 29

So Perpignan or Grenoble will be promoted to the Top 14, they face in the Pro D2 final in Toulouse next weekend. The loser hosts Oyonnax or Stade Français in a relegation/promotion play-off.

With all the Mul-mania and the hammering of the easterners and whatnot, I totally missed that our old friends Brive had been relegated. Hope we see them back up again soon.
Also our other old friends Grenoble had an impressive away win in Montauban to put themselves in line for promotion.
Oyonnax could still avoid second-last but they're away to barrage-chasing Castres so I would expect them to head for the relegation play-off against the losers of Perpignan/Grenoble. I'd fancy either to beat them though not sure where the game is to be played.
I don't think Pau or La Rochelle will qualify for the Champions Cup now. Lyon and Castres should hold on for Top 6 and I suspect Gloucester may need the 20th spot as Sale should overtake them on the last day.

That would leave (assuming some results)
La Rochelle
Pau
Clermont
Bordeaux
Agen
Paris
Perpignan
Grenoble

Bath
Northampton
Harlequins
Worcester
Bristol

Ospreys
Treviso
Connacht
Zebre
Dragons
Heidelberg
Enisei

If they stay like that, we'd definitely have one of La Rochelle/Pau/Northampton/Bath as our top seed.
We'd avoid Harlequins and Clermont as they'd be in Pot 2 with Connacht (and also avoid all the other Pro14 teams)
Then we'd have one of Bordeaux/Agen/Bristol/Worcester (not from same country as above)
And finally one of Heidelberg/Enisei/Perpignan/Grenoble/Paris

With some quality teams in there, there's probably a decent chance of a lot of semi-finalists qualifying via their leagues so the sneaky route into the Champions Cup might be open again if we have a decent pool stage.

Christ just looked at the Conference A table there. We really are in danger of being overtaken by Zebre and finishing bottom of the table. That would be a total disaster for morale and the organization in general.

Regarding who we get in the Challenge Cup next season, I'm moving to Bristol in June so for selfish reasons I would love to be drawn with the newly christened "Bristol Bears" (terrible terrible name). Imagine the current Connacht contingent with Bristol (Lam, Muldoon, Muldowney, Heenan) coming to the Sportsground next season - what an occasion!

Enisei are back in as well.
Looks like Connacht will be the third ranked Pro14 team (after Ospreys and Treviso) and thus would be in Pot 2 in the draw and probably avoid Clermont. Zebre could still catch us though, which would mean going into Pot 3 (I think). Or some magic from Pau could mean Ospreys qualify for the main event and we'll be second ranked and maybe in Pot 1.
I will take Bath, Bordeaux and Heidelberg please.

Heidelberg is beautiful and the nightlife is good (student town) and it's only a bit over an hour from Ryanair Hahn. Overdue a visit there anyway so drawing them would be the perfect excuse.

German side Heidelberg has qualified for Challenge Cup so fingers crossed we get drawn with them

Bazzo wrote:

mikey wrote: Can anyone tell be for sure if we are likely to be playing in the Challenge Cup next season, or any competition at all (apart from the Pro 14 of course). I met a few people who said we're done and dusted until the following season.

Those people are clueless. We are 10000% in the challenge cup next season.

Fantastic. They had me nearly convinced we were out! Looking forward then to a trip away.