connachta wrote: or praying to be eliminated by Montpellier rather the a useless away Q-f

God yeah, I'd hate to have to go to the South of France in April when the weather is nice and flights are plentiful.

Grenoble is a decent team, especially at Stade des Alpes.
Woudn't like L.I away either, but they are poor this season, and I've to admit we'd have a chance to win there and have a home semi, then Lyon final, then.... only scenario we must field our best team

EDIT : We can also blackmail Griffin to nulify his contract if he scores against us :lol:

Interesting options.
Finish 4th or 5th seed and get a home or away QF against Irish or Grenoble.

We'll have 5 points against Enisei (no disrespect)

the question is 18 (19) points or 22 (23) points

scenario 1

Will we be one of the 3 best second with 18 points?

Grenoble or London Irish probably ahead of this total, because of their respective schedule
Same for Dragons or Sale
So the question is : Will Montpellier beat Quins for the 200 000 euros, and then have the 19-20 points. If so we're out (I'd prefer that than this away Q-f)

scenario 2 : we beat Brive, will we be 5th (away Q-f), or 4th (home Q-f)?

1) Harlequins (25+ anyway)
2) Gloucester (25+)
3) Dragons or Sale (22-23 IMO)
4) L.I or Grenoble (no more than 20 IMO)

If Grenoble beats Edinburgh at home, I think we're through for a home Q-f

So as far as I'm concerned It's beating Brive, having a cracking home Q-f game, bolster our confidence, and away semi (unlikely to be won, we'll play it fully or not depending on the injury front),
or praying to be eliminated by Montpellier rather the a useless away Q-f

I'll put my neck on the block and say we will definitely qualify if we get the 5 pointer (or even a 4 pointer) against Enesei. 2nd in Pool 4 isn't going to qualify and Harlequins will beat Cardiff and Montpellier.

In terms of a home quarter final you are probably right it will be tough to get a home quarter final. Harlequins and Gloucester are going to take the top 2 spots.

In relation to the other 2 spots, Sale are on 13 currently, you'd expect them to beat Pau away with a bonus point and Dragons at home bringing them to 23/24. Pool 5 is very tight and London Irish and Edinburgh will need 10 points to bring them to 22. This may be possible as they both have to play Agen who are unlikely to give a toss but they would also have to get a 5 pointer against Grenoble who are firmly in contention themselves.

From what I can make out on the competition site, it looks like it comes down to scoring difference if level for which we aren't best placed even with Enesei in the final round.

Either way Ulster is the focus now, given our squad and the matches coming up there is no point looking too far down the road at the moment.

I think you're getting ahead of yourselves boys.

We're almost certainly consigned to an away quarter final already. The Challenge Cup has only run in its current format for 5 seasons (last season and 4 seasons after home and away knockout rounds & before the HEC pool runners-up started dropping down). Minimum requirement for a home quarter final has been either 24 or 25 points. We're looking at 22 (possibly 23) if we win the group. However there are only 2 runaway group leaders this year so the required margin might be lower. It could be argued we' be best off as "worst" group winner away to Irish/Grenoble/Dragons/Sale with a guaranteed home semi vs. Gloucs or Quins as the reward for winning, as opposed to home in the QF to one of the same quartet and away to Gloucs/Sale in the semis.

If we fail to beat Brive then we'll finish second on 18/19 points (very slim chance of 20/21 pts). Since Brive have the previous weekend off, and we are likely to have a short turnaround (4-7 days) after 3 crucial Pro12 games this seems the likely outcome. 8th seed in this format has needed 15-21 points depending on the season so we'd have a 50-50 chance of not qualifying at all.

Borders no.2 wrote: Was just looking at the schedule and see that the Challenge Cup quarter finals are scheduled for the 7-10 April. By that stage 19 Rounds of the Pro 12 will have been completed. I think we'll have a fair idea at that stage whether we are going to get Top 6 or not. I wouldn't get overly concerned about whether or not we will have to face a potential quarter final over 3 months into the future at this stage. Let's see how the next few weeks pan out first..

Sorry to disagree, but Round 20, 21 and 22 are 3 must-win for us. Away quarter-final before Munster at home? No thank you. And then tricky and maybe decisive games away to Treviso, home against Glasgow

Just seen the highlights there, the main issue would be some of the tackling being of a very poor quality:

First try: 3 first up tackles missed, Watson is a dangerous runner but from the position he received the ball that try should never have been let happen.
Second try: Would like to see it again but on first viewing that call from Ben Whitehouse for the 2nd try looked incredibly harsh bordering on outrageous. The decision he came to finished the game as a contest. Even the Newcastle fans didn't seem to know for a few seconds what he was doing.
Third try: The hand off on Jack Carty was too easy
Fourth try: Newcastle got the shove on in the scrum, Whitehouse had the whistle in his mouth to blow for a penalty but then on a whim decided to make it a penalty try. The scrum was destroyed in fairness though so nomajor issue with the penalty try.
Fifth try: Atrocious defence from a whole host of players.

Was just looking at the schedule and see that the Challenge Cup quarter finals are scheduled for the 7-10 April. By that stage 19 Rounds of the Pro 12 will have been completed. I think we'll have a fair idea at that stage whether we are going to get Top 6 or not. I wouldn't get overly concerned about whether or not we will have to face a potential quarter final over 3 months into the future at this stage. Let's see how the next few weeks pan out first.

In addition it was mentioned earlier in the year that the French clubs would get €200,000 for qualifying for the quarter finals. I don't know will we get that but I'd imagine there is a decent windfall to be made all the same which is money we badly need regardless of whether we get Top 6 or not.

Really most of the focus since the Newcastle home game has been on the Ulster game. Ulster performed well again today and recorded a fine victory albeit against a Toulouse team who look a shadow of their former self. They have Munster at home and 3 consecutive European games to come after playing us so I'd imagine they'll rotate where they have alternatives. I believe if we win this game it will give us the impetus moving ahead into January and the 6 nations to get the required points for Top 6.

Yes, you missed it will be Harlequins or Gloucester away. Into a busy Pro 12 schedule, in March. I don't want this extra game, unlikely to be won

Only listened on the radio.

But 3 things stood out.
1 The Connacht support was well heard! Fair play everyone
2 Browne was everywhere
3 the team can walk with heads in the air. They didn't lose to lack of effort.

Isn't it better to get an away quarter as if you win you are guaranteed an home semi?

Or am I getting something wrong?

I predict with 80% certainty, that Brive vs Connacht will be chosen by French broadcaster mid-January

Newcastle complained about the ref losing it for them last week. Well this week they can send a hamper to whitehouse. I can't finish this post without swearing profusely so I won't

Borders no.2 wrote:
Anyway for now our focus switches to Ulster. Hopefully we'll have enough players back to put out at least a strong first XV.

Yeah, will be something like

1) Lough
2) Delahunt
3) White
4) Dillane
5) Muldowney
6) Muldoon
7) Connolly
8 ) Mastertson
9 ) Marmion
10) Carty
12) Ronaldson
13) Aki
11) one of Niyi/Parata
14) one of Healy/Poolman (depends on fitness)
15) TOH

16) Heff/JHW
17) Bealham
18) Ahyou
19) Browne
20) Heenan/McKeon (Naoupu if both not ready yet)
21) Porter
22) ? (McGinty not far from return in theory)
23) ? (depends on the other backs)

Borders no.2 wrote:

connachta wrote: I really hope we won't finish 'one of the 3 best 2nd" , for an away quarter-final once more. Could only hurt more the squad, uselessly. We have to focus on Pro 12, now, heavy schedule to come.

If we don't want that the only way we can avoid it is either to win at Brive and at home to Enesei and probably secure a home quarter final or we would miss out if we lose both games.

Even if we wanted to miss out we couldn't bring the shame of losing at home to Enesei at home on ourselves. .

Yeah I'm well aware of that problem, and that's bothering me a lot. It's like a plot against Connacht
Hope we'll get a BP away win in Brive, or that 3 other 2nd teams will finish over 18 points

connachta wrote: I really hope we won't finish 'one of the 3 best 2nd" , for an away quarter-final once more. Could only hurt more the squad, uselessly. We have to focus on Pro 12, now, heavy schedule to come.

If we don't want that the only way we can avoid it is either to win at Brive and at home to Enesei and probably secure a home quarter final or we would miss out if we lose both games.

Even if we wanted to miss out we couldn't bring the shame of losing at home to Enesei at home on ourselves.

Anyway for now our focus switches to Ulster. Hopefully we'll have enough players back to put out at least a strong first XV.