when you put it that way salmson it looks difficult but if munster turned the 3 very winnable losses in cork this season into wins and only take a lbp at treviso they move that ave ppg up to 3pts. if they cant achieve those improvements they have no business in the playoffs. the extra 4-5 pts needed for the home semi will be hard fought for and so they should be.
of course they havent needed to before the last 4 seasons afaik as the league was a straight forward winner takes all scenario. they qualified for 3 of the 4 play off series but only once at home when they finished top and won the league.
this equally applies to connacht. if they turn winnable games like cardiff, edinburgh etc to wins then they break the 40pt barrier. realistically connacht should be targetting 8 home wins in lge next season. two min from leinster, ulster, munster, glasgow and ospreys and beating the rest.

Reading Rossie's post, he's clearly (but very politely) suggesting that Connacht and Munster don't really play in the same league.

Unfortunately he's completely right:

Munster's worst performance over 10 years of home and away fixtures in the Rabo/Cider/Celtic league was year one/2003-04 (2.3 points per game), while last year saw their second worst (just shy of 2.5 ppg).

Connacht's best performance was also in 2003-04, when we hit 2 ppg. We (almost) repeated this performance the next year, then there were 5 abject years (1.1 to 1.4 ppg) before a recovery to 1.7/1.8 ppg under Eric. 5 of 10 years our points total has been less than half that of Munster.

The upshot is it would require Munster to have their worst season ever (of 11 seasons) next year while we would require our best, just for us to be there or thereabouts in the race for 3rd Irish province come the last couple of games. More succinctly, saying it would be a hundred-to-one shot we could even scare Munster is understating matters.

[Special stat for Rossie: while Munster will obviously (given a sweet draw) be targeting top seed status in the HEC quarters, the bar for second place in the Rabo and a home quarter final is 3.1 to 3.5 ppg, barring one pre-playoff season when Edinburgh came second (if that isn't an anomaly, eh?). Munster have only hit that level in 3 seasons of 10, so I reckon an away playoff in the Rabo is a more realistic aim than a home one.]

swift4prez wrote: December 22, connacht 12 munster 16. that george no try and keatley catching fetu just on the line, munster won got 4 points, we got 1. if we won, then 13points would be between both team at the end of the season.

Don't forget, Munster would've dropped 3 as well as Connacht gaining 3, so that's a 6 point swing in total, which (with the two other what-if results) would've left Munster and Connacht level going in to the last game of the regular season.
Would have made for an interesting evening over in Parma ...

We need to be realistic. Munster had a poor Rabo season last year and still finished comfortably ahead of us and really it could have been more if they needed it. Next season they will be back pushing for top 4 with Penney settled in and the boost of the Heineken Cup run this year. I'd be surprised if they are not top 4.

I don't think we have strengthened hugely but hope that with a new regime and a couple of top players coming in we can push on a step or two.

Realistic goals for next year in my opinion are to improve our points total in the league which starts with making the Sportsground a tougher place to visit. I think we got 24 points at home this season and only 5 wins. This isn't enough. At a minimum we need 7 wins and to clear 30 points at home imo, that is most certainly achievable. Also winning at home to Munster must be a priority, too many of those games have slipped through our fingers.

If we could get at least that number of points at home it takes the pressure off the away games and with some improvements in form away from home in the 2nd half of the season its possible for us to get some results against the bottom half teams on the road and during international breaks.

The league would be my primary focus along with the two Zebre HC games. If we were to pull off a glorious win at home to Toulouse or Saracens it would be great but for me consistently performing to potential in the league particularly against the sides in the bottom half is of paramount importance.

If we keep improving steadily one of the provinces is likely to come back towards us eventually but not anytime soon.

i think both munster and connacht will be disapointed with last season. munsters win in the stoop disguises what was a poor season and connachts wins v leinster, ospreys and biarritz does likewise for their season.
imo munster will treat the league with a lot more respect next season and will chase down a top 2 finish. whether its achieved or not is another story but a home pro12 semi and home hec qtr will be the minimum goal next season imo. the finances demand it and the squad is strong enough imo to realistically achieve that. Munster lost 3 out of the 4 games in cork dropping 11 points in the process. in addition they drew with ospreys and lost to leinster at tp which is another 5. they will chase down most of those pts next season. they also failed to get anything away to treviso.

connacht need to break the 40pt barrier next season. it sounds simple but so far they have failed to achieve that goal. it simply must be achieved next season. home form has to improve dramatically if that is to be achieved and 44 pts has to be the goal combined with 10 pts in the hec.the investment that has been made in the squad demands it. achieving 44pts and consolidating 8th place should be the minimum goal. 7th is at 51pts now but who knows maybe treviso might come back a bit from there next season. i expect the dragons to be stronger next season though. they have recruited well for next season both with new dor and decent players for every line. it still should be achievable for connacht though.

Jesus, I'd a whole big thing typed out and I deleted it. Long day.

I agree, and there were other matches that we should have easily come away with losing BP. Munster wouldn't be too happy with their season, but a big effort (which, given the new players and staff, you'd hope to see) could easily move up the table properly. I think us taking 3rd Irish side is probably going to be a bit more dependent on the other sides than us for the next year or two. But look at where Ulster were a few years ago.

Anyway - full of enthusiasm and hope. Bring on 13/14

Its very quiet here apart from talking about Ireland so im going to throw this out there.
Last season when we spoke about, 'shock of the season' alot of fans tipped us to finish as the 3rd irish province. in the end there was 16 points between us.

im not a fan of 'if and buts' although sometimes its ok.

December 22, connacht 12 munster 16. that george no try and keatley catching fetu just on the line, munster won got 4 points, we got 1. if we won, then 13points would be between both team at the end of the season.

December 1, connacht 23 edinburgh 24, parks missed a drop kick with 90 seconds left. another 3 points if we won, 10 points between us and munster.

September 1, we all marched up 'elwood road' first game of the season believing we might see a great connacht team finally clicking. connacht 9, a piss poor cardiff team 13. thats another 3points dropped. that was the worse game of the season for me. 7 points difference.

that was 9 points dropped in 3 very winnable games! i know munster could look at games they lost and do the same which is why i have little time for 'ifs and buts' but with the 3 games shown above, i make a valid point.


we have made some good signing and covered who we lost apart from hooker but hopefully preseaon will sort that out.
munster seem to lost few players and no big signing yet. there not aloud sign a scrum half or an out half due to NIQ rules. saying that, its there own fault with stringer signing for sale.

munster also got an winnable group in the heineken cup which they might rest players in the pro12, although we got to take full advantage of that.
with joe coming in as ireland coach, god knows who he'll pick from munster when ireland play.

thats just my thought really, everyone welcomed to throw there ideas out and would be nice hearing from thommand2006 and half munster half connacht fan, rossie