Marshall: Those are all the angles George.
George: I can't see all the ball all the time.
Marshall: I can see no clear and obvious reason ...
George: OK, I'm going to award the try.

It was a nasty one, can expect a nice holiday for that.

Fergus McFadden has been cited for stamping in the first half

Best news you can imagine, Embra beat Glasg once again. I really hope it will be helping in the end.

Osp and Glasgow have both 7 games winnable, no more IMO (including they're gonna be impacted by 6 nations). We are 6 points ahead.
So we still have our destiny in our own hand with 6 wins including one of then at home, in one of the confrontation against direct opponent

Which would mean

Zebre and Benetton away
Scarlets home
One of Dragons/Edinburgh away
One of Munster/Leinster home
One of Ospreys/Glasgow home

Very few rights to make mistakes, but it's possible. The last 2 games may be the hardest (Treviso and Glasgow), the squad needs to be fit and fresh in April.

It's highly unlikely we'll even need 58 points. The top 8 play each other 28 times in the second half of the season, so that's an average of 2 losses for everyon, including some teams already a game or two behind us. 5 wins and a few bonus points should get us to 56 or 58 and over the top.

Obviously 3 losses in a row is worrying but Ospreys, Glasgow and Leinster will struggle during the 6 nations as they did during the world cup and the international windows last season.

RogueXV wrote:

phatguerilla wrote: Its true that we could have picked up some card there, the penalty count evened that out in Leinsters favour though. Until now Connacht have had excellent discipline, so what has changed?

I would say it was the combination of the other teams getting over the RWC hangover and the Connacht squad fatigue. For the most part the only time Healy or Aki have been out of the side is when they are injured, probably have even played at less than 100% a few times. If Connacht can get a couple more players back there are probably some opportunities for squad rotation over the next two months. Personally I would have a long thought about the team I'd send to Brive, might depend on how things go at Parc Y Scarlets. Certainly players could be rested for Enisie and when enough players are healthy changes can be made for the games against the Dragons and Zebre without weakening the team at all.

Yes with Edinburgh completing the double over Glasgow this evening along with Munster's win the table makes for bad reading compared to a few weeks back. Next weekend I wouldn't be overly optimistic. I'd take anything from that game (minimum we can't let Scarlets get all 5 like last season) but the next 5 after that imo we must win them all. It's a tall order but if we are to achieve Top 6 it probably has to be done. Looking for much more than bonus points off Leinster, Ulster, Munster or Glasgow in the last few weeks will be very difficult. Even Treviso in the 2nd last game will probably be fighting their own battle with Zebre and are always tough at home.

Usually 58+ would have been enough but at the half way point (bar 2 games), 32 is 6th place meaning which suggests a higher total may be needed.

wp_rathead wrote:

phatguerilla wrote: If Leinsters try was judged held up and Kearneys knock on gave us a 5m scrum then I'm confident we would have scored from that and probably won the game, as there were few other opportunities for either team.

The referee shouldn't be the main topic of conversation but its clear that if the exact same game was played with six different referees there would be six different scorelines.

They were two big moments alright - but in truth Nathan White and Bundee Aki could have been binned in 1st half with Nathan not binding and hitting McCarthy with swinging arm and Bundee came in from the side 10m out (after alot of previous penalties aswell)

Last week we got lucky with Healy not getting binned for taking Trimble out.. The referees aren't reason we're losing lads.. It's down to us unfortunately

We were as sinned against as sinners in the first half, McCarthy in particular should have been penalised several times at breakdown preventing from an offside position Connacht players joining a ruck.

But regardless of that it doesn't change the fact that Clancy awarded a non try! Yes Leinster were dominating for large parts of the second half, but we were defending competently all evening and at 3-0 with fifteen to go there was still every chance we could get something out of the game....

Just a shame that Niyi didn't have the composure to kick ahead rather than try gather the ball near the end of the first half after some great work..To turn around 5 or 7-3 up would have seriously distressed Leinster...

phatguerilla wrote: Its true that we could have picked up some card there, the penalty count evened that out in Leinsters favour though. Until now Connacht have had excellent discipline, so what has changed?

I would say it was the combination of the other teams getting over the RWC hangover and the Connacht squad fatigue. For the most part the only time Healy or Aki have been out of the side is when they are injured, probably have even played at less than 100% a few times. If Connacht can get a couple more players back there are probably some opportunities for squad rotation over the next two months. Personally I would have a long thought about the team I'd send to Brive, might depend on how things go at Parc Y Scarlets. Certainly players could be rested for Enisie and when enough players are healthy changes can be made for the games against the Dragons and Zebre without weakening the team at all.

wp_rathead wrote:

phatguerilla wrote: If Leinsters try was judged held up and Kearneys knock on gave us a 5m scrum then I'm confident we would have scored from that and probably won the game, as there were few other opportunities for either team.

The referee shouldn't be the main topic of conversation but its clear that if the exact same game was played with six different referees there would be six different scorelines.

They were two big moments alright - but in truth Nathan White and Bundee Aki could have been binned in 1st half with Nathan not binding and hitting McCarthy with swinging arm and Bundee came in from the side 10m out (after alot of previous penalties aswell)

Last week we got lucky with Healy not getting binned for taking Trimble out.. The referees aren't reason we're losing lads.. It's down to us unfortunately

100% agree with that. Blaming Clancy for that loss is nonsense.

I thought we played our best rugby (arguably ever) in the first half in what were atrocious conditions but we just looked flat and made too many mistakes throughout the second half. Overall, we did dodge a bullet in first half in terms of the likelihood of yellow card for repeated offense but the decision by the referee for their try was simply crazy and an unforgivable error. Really calls into question Mr. Clancy's all round judgement. A tough period lies ahead for sure but I still think our standard of play is better than ever before.

Its true that we could have picked up some card there, the penalty count evened that out in Leinsters favour though. Until now Connacht have had excellent discipline, so what has changed?

phatguerilla wrote: If Leinsters try was judged held up and Kearneys knock on gave us a 5m scrum then I'm confident we would have scored from that and probably won the game, as there were few other opportunities for either team.

The referee shouldn't be the main topic of conversation but its clear that if the exact same game was played with six different referees there would be six different scorelines.

They were two big moments alright - but in truth Nathan White and Bundee Aki could have been binned in 1st half with Nathan not binding and hitting McCarthy with swinging arm and Bundee came in from the side 10m out (after alot of previous penalties aswell)

Last week we got lucky with Healy not getting binned for taking Trimble out.. The referees aren't reason we're losing lads.. It's down to us unfortunately

I feel pretty deflated after that game, 0-3 in the conditions was more than acceptable, and our maul defense was excellent.

If Leinsters try was judged held up and Kearneys knock on gave us a 5m scrum then I'm confident we would have scored from that and probably won the game, as there were few other opportunities for either team.

The referee shouldn't be the main topic of conversation but its clear that if the exact same game was played with six different referees there would be six different scorelines.

I had hoped that last week was a bit of a blip but I'm starting to worry that our team is becoming quite fatigued as a result of the 16 weeks of uninterrupted games. We have the scarlets then europe then scarlets in the next four weeks, we will need to see a number of changes over those weeks just to keep some players from becoming worn down. I would also be a bit worried about our winter tactics and ability to control a game right now which doesn't bode well for the next two months or more.

Is anyone else now just waiting for the final kick to the junk with an announcement that Robbie is headed to Leinster? "Thank you sir may I have another?"

Borders no.2 wrote:

Accidentally Onside wrote: Not sure that Cardiff win is a good result to be honest Borders; Scarlets look a fairly quality outfit to me, good enough to be comfortably top 6 anyway, so having Cardiff out of contention would maybe have suited us better. Need at least 4 points from the games against Scarlets now :sick:

I'll never know how that Leinster try was given but can't complain about the result, we made too many mistakes with ball in hand.

Edit: on the positive Heenan did well and our defense in that first half was bloody brilliant

Maybe so but even though they have a good few home games to come yet if Cardiff finish ahead of us we'll have been nowhere near Top 6 anyway.
Also like us Scarlets form has tailed off the last few weeks. Looking at the other spots, Ulster, Leinster, Glasgow and probably in the end Munster will definitely make up 4 spots. Ospreys have got their act together so even though they started the season brilliantly of the contenders for Top 6 Scarlets still are probably the most likely to be chased down for Top 6.

I'm really seeing it difficult to see us being in the Top 6 on the performances since the Munster game even allowing for injuries.

I agree top 6 will be difficult but not so sure I agree with how it will be made up.
Leinster
Ulster
Will definitely be top 4
Osprey
Glasgow
Scarlets
Are the next tier down (Osprey and Glasgow are top 4 teams for me but after their starts might struggle to get playoffs)
With us, Munster and Edinburgh fighting it out for the final spot. Even with the win today I don't think Blues will be able to best us.

A lot will depend on how the Scots derby goes tomorrow but, oddly, I'd still fancy us to finish ahead of Munster. The problem for Munster is that though they don't have a brilliant squad they do have a few very good players (key amongst them is Murray but also O'Mahony, Ryan and Earls) that they will lose for the 6 nations, are really struggling at outhalf and are the most poorly coached province (and possibly team in the pro 12). I'd worry for them that they could get an awful drubbing tomorrow in Ravenhill :blush:

Borders no.2 wrote: The only consolation this evening is Scarlets lost again but there is now up to 9 teams now in contention for 6 spots and Edinburgh have home advantage again tomorrow against Glasgow which could see them moving up right behind us. If we don't at least break even over the 2 games against Scarlets its going to become very difficult.

I'd rather like Embra win tomorrow TBF, would limit Glasgow nuisance..