phatguerilla.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/wh...pecting-four-points/

I've written a preview of sorts. Considering most of it is based on highlights its even more a stab in the dark than usual.

Any word yet on Mils recovery?

connachta wrote:

salmson wrote:

connachta wrote: Ok, but last year was for improvement and settling, this year is for qualification.. no more unreliable "for now" should be tolerated...

What do you expect from Carty - or Ronaldson for that matter - exactly? Carty had 2 starts last year, hardly much time for improvement/settling. We have to take the rough with the smooth with our young players and trust them to be quick learners as we can't Toulon our way up the league.

I don't expect much, yes Lam made an error last year, the last 3-4 or 5 matches he should have picked Caty/Ronaldson ahead Parks/Nikiora, and yes he should have choosen a 10/15 à la Patchell/Brock James instead of a 13/15 (Muliaina). But past is past...

Carty has done some poor stuff - a blocked clearance against Dragons and missing touch with penalties against Leinster come to mind - but he's done some really good stuff. The decision to grubber rather than drop goal for McSharry's try against Glasgow is one example, his looped double cut-out pass to put Leader over in the same game is another.

I've never discussed his offensive potential

It should be remembered that Ronaldson had only 3 starts at 10 last year and 2 of them (home to Ospreys and away to Glasgow) he had a mare. I'd be very surprised if Carty is dropped this w/e, Ronaldson will have to wait until Treviso or the Challenge Cup to get a start

But in defence I widely prefer a 10/12, if Ronaldson was trusted for centre, he knows how to tackle. Porter made an insane move for the 3rd glasgow try also because he knew Carty wasn't reliable against a full-speed DT Van der Merve. And Cardiff fly-halfs (Patchell or Davies) will use the same sequence, they both love to run inside the defence. That's why i propose Ron ahaed of Carty for this game, with this kind of opposition.

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Look from 39:00 to 39: 45 (youtube time) of the Cardiff vs Glasgow video below, and you'll see what I fear about midfield attacks in the 10 area

Following Connacht’s first defeat of the 2014-15 season at the hands of Glasgow Warriors, Pat Lam’s men were straight back to work in Galway on Sunday ahead of the Cardiff Blues’ visit to the Sportsground this Friday night.

The only notable casualty arising from the bruising encounter with the Warriors last week was winger Matt Healy who suffered a concussion in the opening half. The 25-year-old is currently going through the return-to-play protocols and will be monitored closely ahead of the team announcement on Thursday.

Scrum half Ian Porter, who had a 100% kicking record from the tee at Scotstoun, sustained a knock to his hand but a fracture was ruled out following an x-ray and the 26-year-old joined training as normal on Monday.

Galway man Tiernan O’Halloran underwent knee scope surgery last Wednesday and is expected to return to training in approximately three weeks’ time. Shoulder surgery was also completed on his team mate Jake Heenan that same day but the flanker is looking at four-five months on the side lines.

Meanwhile, Sean Henry is scheduled for ACL reconstruction at the end of the month. Recovery for the Sligo born hooker is likely to take from six to eight months.

CONNACHT v CARDIFF BLUES                                                     At Sportsground, 7.35pmLive on TG4
Referee: Neil Paterson (SRU, 62ndcompetition game)
Assistant Referees: Andy Brace, John Carvill (both IRFU)
Citing Commissioner: John Cole (IRFU)TMO: Dermot Moloney (IRFU)

GUINNESS PRO12 Preview
Connacht lost their 100% Guinness PRO12 winning record with their defeat at Glasgow on Friday evening. Connacht have won their last two matches at the Sportsground but have now won three in a row at the venue in the PRO12 since early 2013.

Cardiff Blues only victory in their last five PRO12 encounters came in Parma against Zebre in round 1 this season. Blues have won three of their last five away games, but have lost both of their encounters with Irish provinces this season.Connacht have won just one of their last nine fixtures against the Blues: 26-22 at the Arms Park in February 2013. The Blues have lost just once in their last eight visits to the Galway Sportsground, in September 2009. 

salmson wrote:

connachta wrote: Ok, but last year was for improvement and settling, this year is for qualification.. no more unreliable "for now" should be tolerated...

What do you expect from Carty - or Ronaldson for that matter - exactly? Carty had 2 starts last year, hardly much time for improvement/settling. We have to take the rough with the smooth with our young players and trust them to be quick learners as we can't Toulon our way up the league.

I don't expect much, yes Lam made an error last year, the last 3-4 or 5 matches he should have picked Caty/Ronaldson ahead Parks/Nikiora, and yes he should have choosen a 10/15 à la Patchell/Brock James instead of a 13/15 (Muliaina). But past is past...

Carty has done some poor stuff - a blocked clearance against Dragons and missing touch with penalties against Leinster come to mind - but he's done some really good stuff. The decision to grubber rather than drop goal for McSharry's try against Glasgow is one example, his looped double cut-out pass to put Leader over in the same game is another.

I've never discussed his offensive potential

It should be remembered that Ronaldson had only 3 starts at 10 last year and 2 of them (home to Ospreys and away to Glasgow) he had a mare. I'd be very surprised if Carty is dropped this w/e, Ronaldson will have to wait until Treviso or the Challenge Cup to get a start

But in defence I widely prefer a 10/12, if Ronaldson was trusted for centre, he knows how to tackle. Porter made an insane move for the 3rd glasgow try also because he knew Carty wasn't reliable against a full-speed DT Van der Merve. And Cardiff fly-halfs (Patchell or Davies) will use the same sequence, they both love to run inside the defence. That's why i propose Ron ahaed of Carty for this game, with this kind of opposition.

.

connachta wrote: Ok, but last year was for improvement and settling, this year is for qualification.. no more unreliable "for now" should be tolerated...

What do you expect from Carty - or Ronaldson for that matter - exactly? Carty had 2 starts last year, hardly much time for improvement/settling. We have to take the rough with the smooth with our young players and trust them to be quick learners as we can't Toulon our way up the league.

Carty has done some poor stuff - a blocked clearance against Dragons and missing touch with penalties against Leinster come to mind - but he's done some really good stuff. The decision to grubber rather than drop goal for McSharry's try against Glasgow is one example, his looped double cut-out pass to put Leader over in the same game is another.

It should be remembered that Ronaldson had only 3 starts at 10 last year and 2 of them (home to Ospreys and away to Glasgow) he had a mare. I'd be very surprised if Carty is dropped this w/e, Ronaldson will have to wait until Treviso or the Challenge Cup to get a start.

Ok, but last year was for improvement and settling, this year is for qualification.. no more unreliable "for now" should be tolerated...

connachta wrote:

phatguerilla wrote: I don't know if Carty is a liability per se, he made 12 tackles against Leinster. 9 tackles and 3 missed against Glasgow is not offensively bad either, although its definitely lower than you'd want. He's more likely just tired, this is the most pro rugby he's played, ever, and he's in an important position. I would have started Ronaldson last weekend for his tackling but that didn't happen, I think the change has to happen this week.

above 10% missed tackles, yeah it's a problem if you want to be top 6/7
Carty was above for 3 of the 4 matches
And don't forget Patchell or Davies are both running fly-half, they didn't hesitate to go for the clean breaks until now...
So yeah, Ronaldson to counter that, and even O'Leary option on the bench is conceivable

Slightly disingenuous to say he was above 10% for three of four games, his stats for the four games are 2/5, 7/1, 12/1, and 9/3. Now I'm not going to defend the dragons game but despite missing over 10% of tackles(!) 7/1 v Edinburgh is a good performance. 12/1 is quality, 9/3 is middling but not horrific. Middling is about what you would expect from a guy who hasn't played 10 pro games yet, and the 12/1 is what stands out as his best (tackling) performance so far came against Leinster. Its to early to deduce from those figures that Carty is a liability - at worst it suggests he is unreliable (for now) as he has still to come to terms with being a starting fly half.

At Sportsground, 7.35pm. Live on TG4
Referee: Neil Paterson (SRU, 62nd competition game)
Assistant Referees: Andy Brace, John Carvill (both IRFU)
Citing Commissioner: John Cole (IRFU)
TMO: Dermot Moloney (IRFU)

connachta wrote:

clanman wrote: muldowney needs to kept for his ability in the loose, Kearney should be brought back in for same reason, rest of the forwards picks itself as per the first few games.

In the Backs I don't see any reason to bring in Porter just for his kicking, I'd still have Healy and Poolman in ahead of Niyi. They're going to target Carty if he plays. For Cardiff Patchell is a big lump of a No.10 and runs direct, he played 15 last week but by all accounts that was a failure. Openside and Scrum-half will need to protect Carty as Cardiff enjoy playing round the Fringes. sounds like we don't have any new injury concerns so we should be able to go full-on for the win

Your diagnostic is mine , but you're not a fan of Ronaldson?

To be honest we have'nt seen enough of him this season, Ronaldson I mean. I'd be tempted to stick with Carty now.

clanman wrote: muldowney needs to kept for his ability in the loose, Kearney should be brought back in for same reason, rest of the forwards picks itself as per the first few games.

In the Backs I don't see any reason to bring in Porter just for his kicking, I'd still have Healy and Poolman in ahead of Niyi. They're going to target Carty if he plays. For Cardiff Patchell is a big lump of a No.10 and runs direct, he played 15 last week but by all accounts that was a failure. Openside and Scrum-half will need to protect Carty as Cardiff enjoy playing round the Fringes. sounds like we don't have any new injury concerns so we should be able to go full-on for the win

Your diagnostic is mine , but you're not a fan of Ronaldson?

muldowney needs to kept for his ability in the loose, Kearney should be brought back in for same reason, rest of the forwards picks itself as per the first few games.

In the Backs I don't see any reason to bring in Porter just for his kicking, I'd still have Healy and Poolman in ahead of Niyi. They're going to target Carty if he plays. For Cardiff Patchell is a big lump of a No.10 and runs direct, he played 15 last week but by all accounts that was a failure. Openside and Scrum-half will need to protect Carty as Cardiff enjoy playing round the Fringes. sounds like we don't have any new injury concerns so we should be able to go full-on for the win

I'd expect Connachta's team is fairly close to what will start, with the obvious exception that Carty will probably start (and neither of the outside backs he has on his bench will be in the 23). Other 50-50 call is I could see Roux starting as Muldowney has played 80 in the last 2 games; equally Muldowney may be retained due to the form he's showing.

connachta wrote: on the fitness front

Healy uncertain
green light for Porter)

www.irishexaminer.com/sport/cwidsncwaumh...ource=Irish+Examiner

By John Fallon

"Winger Matt Healy is doubtful for Connacht’s clash against Cardiff Blues at the Sportsground on Friday.

The 25-year old suffered a knock to the head in their first loss of the season when they went down 39-21 away to Glasgow Warriors at the weekend and will go through the return-to-play protocol.


Coach Pat Lam said that he would have to see if Healy, who scored five tries in 15 league appearances last season, would be available for Friday night’s match.


“We will make a call on him later in the week. He is not ruled out at the moment but he has to go through all of the protocol,” said Lam.


Fears that scrum-half Ian Porter would be set for a spell on the sideline after picking up a hand injury have not materialised. “Ian took bang to the right hand and an x-ray has ruled out any fracture and he has been training as normal,” added Lam.


Out-half Miah Nikora suffered a groin injury playing for Corinthians and was not able to train yesterday but Lam is hopeful he will be able to train tomorrow."

on the fitness front

Healy uncertain
green light for Porter

I'd go with
15. Darragh Leader
14. Niyi Adeolokun
13. Robbie Henshaw
12. Dave McSharry
11. Danie Poolman
10. Craig Ronaldson
9. Kieran Marmion

1. Denis Buckley
2. Dave Heffernan
3. Nathan White
4. Aly Muldowney
5. Mick Kearney
6. John Muldoon ©
7. Willie Faloon
8. Eoin McKeon

Replacements:

16. Shane Delahunt (JHW due to be back, but no rush "a la Heenan")
17. Ronan Loughney
18. Rodney Ah You
19. Quinn Roux
20. George Naoupu
21. Ian Porter
22. Shane O'Leary (cover 10 12 13)
23. Shane Layden (cover 11 14 15)

phatguerilla wrote: I don't know if Carty is a liability per se, he made 12 tackles against Leinster. 9 tackles and 3 missed against Glasgow is not offensively bad either, although its definitely lower than you'd want. He's more likely just tired, this is the most pro rugby he's played, ever, and he's in an important position. I would have started Ronaldson last weekend for his tackling but that didn't happen, I think the change has to happen this week.

above 10% missed tackles, yeah it's a problem if you want to be top 6/7
Carty was above for 3 of the 4 matches
And don't forget Patchell or Davies are both running fly-half, they didn't hesitate to go for the clean breaks until now...
So yeah, Ronaldson to counter that, and even O'Leary option on the bench is conceivable