Quarter Final Qualification (Champions Cup)

pinky wrote: A Toulon win would be nice on Saturday. It would take the whole idea of a trip to Allianz Park off the table and let me at least fantasise safely about a bonus point win

Eliminating the Plastic Fantastic is towards the top of my fantasies. I doubt it's just me.

Lads, it's seriously late, ye should be tucked up in bed, unless you are working as I am.On a quick coffee fix,and reading about Allianz Park brings me out in hives. It's a kind of allergic reaction to an external "agitator", and the combination of Saracens and Allianz Park has me scratching. All we can do is pray Toulon do the job on them..
Now to go out explain to folk why I'm scratching....
ABS, Anyone But Saracens.

Decadence wrote: Why the hell did Castres not kick one of those penalties and win the game! Leinster are beyond Wasps now, and we realistically will not pass them on points difference even with a bonus point win in Toulouse.

Assuming we have a TBP win on Sunday, it doesn't change anything, in all likehood (with Munster/Clermont/Sarries winning as expected).
We will end 5th overall against the 4th, Leinster
We would have ended 4th, against the 5th (Leinster)
Same game in the Aviva in both case!

Except if a club finishing 2nd can be ranked ahead of a club finishing 1st of its pool.
Which on 2nd reading, seems to be the case..

connachta wrote: Except if a club finishing 2nd can be ranked ahead of a club finishing 1st of its pool.
Which on 2nd reading, seems to be the case..

? A team finishing 2nd in their group can't be ranked ahead of a team who wins their group. Ranks 1-5 are reserved for the group winners and 6-8 for the 3 best second place teams. Leinster have won their group.

Is it up to the "home" club (Leinster in this example) to decide whether to host at the RDS or Aviva...or would the EPCR/IRFU get involved? Would it be possible that Leinster may want to keep the match in a smaller venue after seeing the numbers that turned out in Murrayfield last year?

Bazzo wrote:

connachta wrote: Except if a club finishing 2nd can be ranked ahead of a club finishing 1st of its pool.
Which on 2nd reading, seems to be the case..

? A team finishing 2nd in their group can't be ranked ahead of a team who wins their group. Ranks 1-5 are reserved for the group winners and 6-8 for the 3 best second place teams. Leinster have won their group.

So I was right.
With a TBP, and other results going as logic goes :
Leinster with 1 or 2 points didn't change anythying (except "official hosting" for finances). The same game, Pro12 final remake, would have taken (and still could take) place in the Aviva.
PS : don't think Connacht would have chosen Thomond and Leinster the RDS, I doubt anyone of the clubs, players, fans, IRFU, and EPRC would have had real interest to push for that

Interesting 24 hrs ahead!

Racing have started well at Thomond, and I think that's a good thing.

Rough top-of-my-head maths tells me that Connacht (if they qualify) will get an Irish team in the Quarter-Final if Munster don't get five points from this one. The alternative is Saracens.

The only caveat would be if Glasgow absolutely hockey Leicester, but it would have to be a 40+ point win.

So the long and short of it is that I'm being patriotic and shouting for the French.

Glasgow is hammering Leicester. Could change everthing for the ranks
Don't know who we could back between Munster and Racing then, to have our Munster vs Connacht QF... Point difference will be so tight...
I just get the feeling we will end with Sarries

So it's tight everywhere but if I'm doing the maths right (assuming Wasps BP in Parma) :
Done this fast, open to checking...

Connacht to lose by 8 --- out of it
Connacht to lose by 6 or by 7 points --- (away) QF against Munster!!!!
Connacht to win without BP, to draw or to lose by 1 to 5 points --- away QF against Sarries
Connacht to win with BP by less than 62 point-margin ---- (away) QF against Leinster!!!!
Connacht to win with BP by more than 62 point-margin ---- (home) QF against Leinster!!!

connachta wrote: So it's tight everywhere but if I'm doing the maths right (assuming Wasps BP in Parma) :
Done this fast, open to checking...

Connacht to lose by 8 --- out of it
Connacht to lose by 6 or by 7 points --- (away) QF against Munster!!!!
Connacht to win without BP, to draw or to lose by 1 to 5 points --- away QF against Sarries
Connacht to win with BP by less than 62 point-margin ---- (away) QF against Leinster!!!!
Connacht to win with BP by more than 62 point-margin ---- (home) QF against Leinster!!!

Thanks for that Connachta. But just to be clear, does anyone have any update to contradict this? I'll be sittting in the middle of Toulouse fans so I don't want to make a holy show of myself if Connacht lose by 6.
Also, what doToulouse need to qualify? Also, I'm thinking that they can only get an away quarter so hopefully they couldn't be arsed.